the_other_guy

12 hours ago, SACRUS said:

 

With today's highs and lows likely reached earlier this morning

 

EWR:  48   /  40.3  (+6.8) thru the 12th
NYC:  50 /  40.01 (+5.6) 
LGA:  50 / 40..4 (+5.2)
 

Almost comical how warm it has become. 

6 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

It is more than 1 run of 1 model and a trend may be emerging but there is still a spread 4 days out,  so too early to call it. 

Its more than that. I think most of us know something has to click in the next 7-10 days or its over. No one wants to say it yet, but in our gut, and looking at extended forecasts, we could see that.

And when I say it’s over, I don’t mean no snowfall for the winter but I mean any chance of a normal winter. this week, this cold snap is pivotal. 

shame if it doesn’t work. last week of the month looks quite warm. If this or 20th dont work you go into Feb with a goose egg in CPK.

History is not kind at that point. Its only 1/12 but its getting late real early past next week…

As soon as Mike Woods said models are looking south so just a slight chance of snow I warmed up the snow blower.

2 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

Ima save this post.  

he called for no snow below 84 on the last one.

There’s a lot of science on here and there’s a lot of bias and agendas. You gotta start learning how people post (even if they are knowledgeable) and just stop reacting to every oscillation they have.

my gut tells me if we miss this one New York City is going for another under 10 inch winter

this is the one for the winter be it timing, el nino history, set up, cold air.

just remember last week when many of you were saying you want this look suppressed and out to sea when you’re several days out.

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

I don't know who would want an arctic outbreak without snow anyway, in 2023 we had two such arctic outbreaks and no snow in either of them.

If you want snow, you want modified arctic air, not single digit cold.

I wish this site had a ^This reaction

52 minutes ago, bluewave said:

While it’s going to feel cold here next week compared to how warm it has been, it doesn’t  look like it will match the Arctic outbreak for us last February when NYC got down to 3°.

Data for February 4, 2023 through February 4, 2023
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

State	Name	Station Type	Lowest Min Temperature
NY	CARMEL 4N	COOP	-10
CT	OXFORD WATERBURY	WBAN	-9
CT	MERIDEN MARKHAM MUNICIPAL AP	WBAN	-6
CT	GUILFORD	COOP	-5
CT	NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT	COOP	-5
CT	DANBURY MUNICIPAL AP	WBAN	-5
NY	PORT JERVIS	COOP	-4
NY	SHRUB OAK	COOP	-4
CT	GROTON NEW LONDON AP	WBAN	-4
CT	IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT	WBAN	-4
NJ	CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR	COOP	-3
NY	MONTGOMERY ORANGE COUNTY AP	WBAN	-3
CT	NEW HAVEN TWEED AP	WBAN	-3
NY	WEST POINT	COOP	-2
NY	ORIENT POINT STATE PARK	COOP	-2
NY	RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM	COOP	-1
NY	WESTHAMPTON GABRESKI AP	WBAN	0
NY	UPTON COOP - NWSFO NEW YORK	COOP	0
NY	MONTAUK AIRPORT	WBAN	0
NY	SHIRLEY BROOKHAVEN AIRPORT	WBAN	1
NY	WESTCHESTER CO AP	WBAN	1
NJ	TETERBORO AIRPORT	WBAN	2
NY	NY CITY CENTRAL PARK	WBAN	3
NJ	HARRISON	COOP	3
NJ	CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP	WBAN	3
NY	SYOSSET	COOP	3
NY	ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP	WBAN	3
NY	CENTERPORT	COOP	3
NY	FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP	WBAN	4
NY	JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT	WBAN	4
NJ	NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	5
NJ	CANOE BROOK	COOP	5
NY	WORLD TRADE CENTER	WBAN	5
NY	LAGUARDIA AIRPORT	WBAN	5
NY	PORT AUTH DOWNTN MANHATTAN WALL ST HEL	ICAO	7
NY	BAITING HOLLOW	COOP	9

 

 

agreed. This isnt our arctic outbreak. But it will be winter cold, and we will be in the game for a couple of of storms.

29 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

The beaches can’t even take the next storm. Im

currently watching the pacific blvd cam and and the waters to the boardwalk. All that sand added after sandy is gone. 

I lived on the beach in Wading River my whole life. It happens. It sucks. They will replenish in spring. The noreaster winters are the worst for beach erosion.

58 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Looks like the coldest departures next week will drop to our West like we have been seeing in recent years. Then a quick moderation in temperatures. Very difficult to get any sustained cold here. 
 

 

you’re a good poster, but you have a very strong glass half empty view of winter around here. it undermines your skill.

Next week is going to be cold for the type of winter (shit) we’ve had so far. Two legitimate snow chances.

And if past el Ninos are any indication, that may be it. Loaded February isnt a guarantee. So, glass half full and enjoy it.

3 hours ago, FPizz said:

It isn't just about the kids in your town, teachers have to drive to get there and many might need the extra time from floods.

And not for nothing, what about the rest of us that have to get to work today but had to show up 3 hours late so they teachers could stroll in 2 hours later?

You do what any responsible adult does in bad weather, assuming you dont have a crisis at home, you hit the road early and arrive when you are supposed to arrive

11 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

IMO right now we  will start as snow in I-95 for a couple hours then  mix back and forth for several hours with LI and coastal NJ going to plain rain and then as the storm starts to intensify pulling in much colder air and everyone changes back to snow subject to timing changes as various models evolve this is definitely thread worthy and please don't combine with any other event....

So last week Part 2.

Yes, no more combo threads please. That was a mess

as for the rivers in New Jersey perhaps it’s time to start thinking like they did on Staten Island after Sandy.

Maybe it’s time to move people away from those rivers.

Obviously, we’re in a new climate regime now with this kind of thing is going to be happening frequently and it’s not right to keep people in harms way. Especially when harm seems to come every few weeks now.

4 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Yikes. Not looking forward to that line

You have been talking about winds all day. here comes the peak. enjoy it

6 minutes ago, guinness77 said:

With the system’s backend already clearing DC, any chance this system and the worst of the gusts maybe end a little earlier in the AM than forecasted? 
 

Not looking forward to driving in about 45 minutes. 

Racing east like a giant squall line. 

I’m down in Orlando this evening and the storm went through rather quickly as it’s thin here.

But we did go wild with tornado warnings about an hour ago. 

Good luck up there tonight!

15 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

There is an inversion but it's very close to the surface. Otherwise winds are Southerly so little shear. Any wind shear would be at the lowest levels, from 925mb down. I don't believe this would have a tremendous impact on aviation, however you're the pilot so I would differ to you. I would think the risk of downdrafts would be higher than normal. In any event visibility will be poor in heavy convection from 00z to 09z.

Yeh not a great night for flying

1 hour ago, psv88 said:

I’m going with Walt who says 50-65 and the other pros. Walt has been on this threat for a week and has an entire career in forecasting for the NwS. 

Go with whatever you want. You seem to think there’s a competing forecast. This is from the national weather service.

I just wanna throw this out there to temper some of the hysteria with the winds.

weather to us is literally life and death in aviation. here are the aviation forecasts for JFK and Islip over the next 24 hours. as you can see, there’s nothing anywhere near 75 mph even if you convert knots to MPH.

Now, Im not saying on the immediate coast there aren’t going be higher gusts and sustained winds.

But for the vast majority of the people in this forum, this will be heavy rain with winds around 30-50 miles an hour. And even that is the high end.

just wanted to throw this government forecast for the two coastal airports in our area out there.

Just now, Great Snow 1717 said:

 

..are you predicting that your favorite baseball team's season is going down the drain???

Mets so…

I had my mini snow. All set for pitchers and catchers  City can make it 1065. Why not?

24 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

KC's great. Rest of the state not so much

Doesnt KC average like 18 inches of snow per year? Much lower than us

2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Seems it's still 7-10 days away for anything decent-next 2 storms are raging cutters.

Well that goes without saying. Done thru Sunday. But then it looks nice and cold for more than 3!!! days

Question is will that be wasted or does something pop next Tuesday.

You be surprised, you get a nice 6 incher that stays on ground for a week or so, and people have a different outlook. Another one in February and even if thats your winter, you were in the game.

3 hours ago, IrishRob17 said:

Low was only 32 here, was forecasted to drop to 26. I cant remember the last time we had a decent snowfall followed by colder weather moving in right afterwards. 11" at the stake, 32/27 currently 

32.7 all night even with snow on ground. Its true. Snowfall sticking around is the biggest change in last 10 years.

Like Raleigh now haha. Pandemonium and gone all in a few days

3 minutes ago, North and West said:

You know I jest, right? 

Now, I just need to ensure that my log cabin along the 287 trail is secure and mother has acquired provisions for the harsh winter prior to this gale. 

Well, it’s a very Long Island centric forum. I know it would screw up the forum, but I think that the Hudson Valley should be its own thing. The weather really isn’t the same and there’s diverging narratives and interest in just basic posting.