the_other_guy

6 minutes ago, psv88 said:

This is a good call. 

Same call all winter. Why not? If youre 20 miles inland makes for an interesting day

I must say, AccuWeather has been spot on this winter with the amount of snow that we have gotten here in Westchester.

They are calling for 1 inch of snow on Tuesday. Take that for what it’s worth.

11 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

the biggest obstacle to snowfall in the metro with this system is there is no established cold air in place prior to arrival of the storm and you have to be far inland and higher elevation

wash, rinse, repeat

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

This time period compared to 70 through 99 will be telling, as we cannot compare this to 00 through 18 (55 through 60 is a direct pattern comparison to 00 through 18).

I am tracking average annual snowfall starting this decade against that period. I suspect they will be very close (+-2.5 inches CPK). Reasons I have already stated (increased moisture/dynamics offsetting temps). 

My tipping point will be when we stop seeing Tennessee, Delmarva getting hammered.

again, these are just theories at this point. You have posted this before that you do not see it direct correlation with the warmth and the lack of snow.

I have a theory that we will actually be much more affected by warming than places like the Delmarva or the Tennessee valley. simply because of location and because we are an extreme urban environment that doesn’t exist anywhere else in the country. 

You are already seeing this play out in real time.

You were looking at a north south east west axis for your warming assumptions going forward. I’m looking at that plus extreme urbanization and urban heat island.

I think if you move north and west of New York City, your assumptions will be more in line of a traditional axis by which the warming is moving.

But I think New York City in terms of snowfall is fucked at this new warmer climate. I don’t think it’s an aberration. I don’t think it will be comparable to the 70s and 80s and 90s. I think we have seen a sharp drop off in snow due to the fact that we are now running 5 to 10° warmer on any given day then we should be. And in a cement jungle like Brooklyn (sorry MJO) you cant snow under those circumstances

3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

If that's the case averages are in the low to mid 40's by then....that coupled with the data about having no snow by late January (The season tends to not produce if that's the case) then it might be about over...

 Im a timing guy. Re historical snow season: You have 4 weeks from today give or take. Maybe 4.5 weeks. So yes, coming to the end one way or another

28 minutes ago, wdrag said:

06z/8 EPS + snow depth change... warrants continued restraint on expectations I80 NYC LI. Click for clarity..

this has been the same map all winter.

Guys are searching for a unicorn it’s just too warm to snow anymore in the New York City metro. 

even with this pattern change that everybody’s been talking about for so many weeks, there’s no cold air. Just average temps

1 hour ago, dseagull said:

It's coming....   I caught jonah crabs in my crab pots today.   They generally start showing up around now for their late winter and early spring migration into the bay and then back out to 60 feet of water.  But... they don't usually show up in these numbers until March.  Very good news, because as great as they are for Tautog bait, they are also excellent table fare.   

 

Mother nature always shows her hand with natural signs. 

If youre an early riser and have a few decades under your belt, you know the feeling on the morning walk. It is still crisp but brighter and the sun feels real good even with a stiff breeze. Spring is in the air

13 minutes ago, Greg g said:

I have a flight coming back from Florida on the 13th.. hope can make it back 

This winter, I wouldnt cancel or lose sleep over any snow event this far out

On 2/4/2024 at 7:44 AM, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

The Adirondacks aren’t ideally situated for snow. The orientation doesn’t produce upslope like the greens. The western portion which does get enhanced lake effect is nearly unpopulated. And the largest ski resort whiteface has the reputation as ice face do to it being a nearly stand alone peak. That means it’s extremely wind prone and doesn’t produce upslope well. 
Personally I love it up there. 

Whiteface is hands down the best ski area in the region. if you could ski that, you could ski anything. On a good day it is spectacular. On a bad day it presents some of those most challenging skiing around at a marked trail resort

On 1/29/2024 at 2:11 PM, LibertyBell said:

Colorado seems ideal, they have some of the best ski resorts around.

 

Utah is tops.

SLC area is so great. So much sun, nice skiing, every guy is hot and rugged, every girl athletic.

Of course, in all my trips there, I rarely see snow in city

59 minutes ago, TJW014 said:

I managed to get a little sunburn (raccoon eyes from sunglasses) on my walk around the Manasquan Reservoir this afternoon. Windows are open to get some fresh air at the house, and I don't even need to use the heater to warm up the truck. Sun is doing it's job

Def feel the spring sun!

this has to be one of the few days this winter that is:

-Normal

-Sunny

-Beautiful

I can’t remember the last time it was just a normal sunny 30 something degree day

12 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The climate models indicate that the minimums rise faster than the maximums as the climate warms. This is evident across the region with the winter departures so far. The higher moisture is probably an important piece of the puzzle since the greatest increase in minimums is up near the Great Lakes. More clouds and warmer lake temperatures keep the minimums up more relative to the maximums. 
 

 

I think its more evident in summer. 

It is the reason we will never have that +10 July that posters are looking for. The temperature is too stable between 75 and 90 24 hours a day

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Absent some type of major volcanic eruption, NYC is going to have a hard time getting another 50”+ snowfall season with how warm the winters have become since 15-16. NYC has needed a winter average temperature closer to 32° or lower to pull off this feat. The current average winter temperature in NYC last 9 years has been a record 38.5° which has been too warm for a 50” + season.
 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Oct through Sep
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Season	Total Snowfall	Average Temperature DJF
1	1995-1996	75.6	32.2°
2	1947-1948	63.9	30.0°
3	2010-2011	61.9	32.8°
4	1922-1923	60.4	29.9°
5	1872-1873	60.2	27.7°
6	2013-2014	57.4	32.9°
7	1874-1875	56.4	27.7°
8	1898-1899	55.9	31.5°
9	1960-1961	54.7	31.7°
10	1993-1994	53.4	31.1°
11	1906-1907	53.2	31.6°
12	1933-1934	52.0	29.1°
13	1966-1967	51.5	34.1°
14	2009-2010	51.4	33.8°
15	1977-1978	50.7	30.3°
-	1916-1917	50.7	31.7°
-	1915-1916	50.7	32.4°
16	2014-2015	50.3	31.4°

 

Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Dec	Jan	Feb	Season
Mean	41.0	35.7	38.9	38.5
2023-2024	44.6	37.0		40.8
2022-2023	38.5	43.5	41.1	41.0
2021-2022	43.8	30.3	37.3	37.1
2020-2021	39.2	34.8	34.2	36.1
2019-2020	38.3	39.1	40.1	39.2
2018-2019	40.1	32.5	36.2	36.3
2017-2018	35.0	31.7	42.0	36.1
2016-2017	38.3	38.0	41.6	39.3
2015-2016	50.8	34.5	37.7	41.0

Perhaps the best post of the winter!

4 hours ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

..the day is coming...

It really isnt. Thank the humidity for that.

19 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

If we delay it-it's likely over.   It may be over anyway-how many winters with 2 inches on the season  in early Feb ended up being decent?   I'll take none for $500 Alex....

Descent is done. But the March snowstorm after a shit winter isnt unusual at all

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

NYC is currently in 1st place for the fewest lows of freezing or below by February 4th.

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Number of Days Min Temperature <= 32 Oct 1 to Feb 4	Missing Count
1	2024-02-04	23	0
-	2016-02-04	23	0
-	2002-02-04	23	0
-
2	2012-02-04	24	0
3	2023-02-04	25	0
4	2017-02-04	26	0
-	1932-02-04	26	0
5	2007-02-04	28	0
6	1999-02-04	29	0
7	1998-02-04	32	0
8	2013-02-04	33	0
-	1983-02-04	33	0
9	1949-02-04	34	0
-	1933-02-04	34	0
10	2020-02-04	35	0
-	2006-02-04	35	0
-	1995-02-04	35	0
-	1991-02-04	35	0
-	1973-02-04	35	0

That explains the lack of snow.

Although some posters are trying to disconnect the two, you cant snow when it is this warm, especially in an uber Urban environment

23 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Cold and possibly snowy

What do you think ?

It has been said by everyone that a pattern change is coming. Everything supports it 

if you could get a repeat of January and that week, I would take it and run.

I don’t know what exactly you’re looking for, but you’ll be lucky to get that

I don’t care if it snows or not, although I would like to see a little bit more. But I don’t want to see one more drop of rain or clouds. As a matter fact, I would like to enter into the beginning stages of a drought. Not to bad. Just enough. If the rest of the month was 40F with sun, Id be happy

Really snowy day at Belleayre today!

9 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, we usually don’t find out the temperature threshold until it has already past. And there could be multiple thresholds which factor into our seasonal snowfall. One is the warming local average winter temperatures which result in declining snowfall averages over time. Another is a SST threshold in a part of the world like the MJO 4-7 regions which shift the storm tracks and lead to warmer local temperatures and lower seasonal snowfall. The record snowfall from 09-10 to 17-18 may have also been related to warming in some area of the planet which created the forcing patterns necessary for so many amazing snowfall seasons. But we may have surpassed that goldilocks snowfall zone when the 15-16 super El Niño resulted in the big jump in global temperatures. Almost like the 15-16 to 17-18 winters while warm, still had the lingering heavy snowfall pattern which seemed to emerge around 02-03 and peaked during the 2010s. Following the 17-18 winter, we have been been struggling with both warmer temperatures and unfavorable Pacific patterns leading to also unfavorable storm tracks and storm day temperatures. We did have a great 20-21 season but NYC couldn’t rival the 50”+ seasons like 09-10, 10-11, 13-14, and 14-15. January 22 was also a great month out on Long Island, but more disappointing around NYC to CNJ. 

It already passed for NYC. Unless you’re in denial.

7 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

dry pattern starts Saturday

please…you keep talking about sun. Clouds yesterday and rain this morning.  

1 hour ago, NEG NAO said:

I don't consider low temps near 30 and high temps forecasted next week in the low to mid 40's as "mild" still need a winter coat.

But it is quite mild for the first week of February. And it is endlessly long

41 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

I have to say if you are looking for snow, the Catskills were amazing yesterday. Belleayre had plenty of natural snow and of course deep snow gun snow. Overall it was a beautiful day yesterday with light snow off and on. So far I have had three really amazing ski days this past January and one horrendous day. 

Belleayre! They have had a great season!

8 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Yeah it looks good on multiple fronts. We typically do better when we have some SE ridging. 

This looks like a scenario where DC, Baltimore and possibly Philly have above average snowfall. Especially if the GEFS is right. EPS is stronger in phase 8, hence the difference in the maps.

Typical Nino and even though small, that has been patter for the winter thus far.

Probably a safe bet for you.