the_other_guy

Well, at this point, all we could do is take a day at a time and we have the next one up which looks like a suppressed system with a fringe

The nice thing about snow cover that’s laced with ice is that it’s harder to melt. That will be our friend this week.

Suppressed and then cutters

This forum is gonna blow!!

Here is a little trivia;

When was the last time NYC had a snow storm with snow already on the ground?

It has been years I think

just drove down from Westchester to Jfk.

clearing my driveway at home solid 4 or 5 inches with an icy crust on top.

Stopped at the parents in Whitestone to clear them. I would say at most 2-3 icy inches.

sorry the measurements aren’t precise, but I am on my way to work and it’s early.

A surprisingly good little storm for Queens and for all really

1 minute ago, Sn0waddict said:

My Bernese Mountain dogs do as well. Was gonna post a photo of them but I kept getting errors about the image being too large so I stopped trying lol

Gotta screen shot it and the upload it

whatever it’s doing, it’s coming down real heavy now.

If this rate continues even with sleet, we’re getting a good covering here

Sleet all the way up in HPN haha

14 minutes ago, BoulderWX said:

Wow. Definitely not criticizing. At all. 
 

was literally saying I was surprised that they were raising totals, there is a huge difference between healthy skepticism and criticizing. You clearly don’t know my posting style at all if you think that.

 

 

just to add there is nothing unflyable about any of the weather moving in.

If they don’t cancel the flight, just go through the deicing period and she’ll be fine. More annoying than anything else.

this isn’t a door slamming event like a blizzard or or a hurricane where things are gonna shut down

19 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

NWS Upton and NWS Taunton doubling down on their totals, even increasing them to the north a bit. Not sure why, the opposite should be happening actually. 

Maybe this forum is talking itself into a death spiral echo chamber?

Just a thought

I don’t understand the hysteria on this thread. My forecast hasn’t budged from national weather service or AccuWeather at all. I think you guys are getting too caught in slight shifts in the models.

Secondly, I just sold nuts outside of a supermarket in Hastings for two hours…. Thank you, Boy Scouts…. Nothing hysterical at the supermarket at all. Typical saturday

Thankfully, the general public is less hysterical than the people posting in this forum.

Who is this ass that invaded this forum and why is he still here?

3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

@jm1220 wins again 

This is not going to happen. No way at all. 

1 minute ago, greenmtnwx said:

For the city and coast this whole week has gone up in smoke. Epic fail.

Gradient storms.

Guys rooting for this setup…I think they are crazy personally.

Always want the cold air on your side

3 hours ago, GaWx said:

 JetBlue. Do you know much about their approach to heavy snow? Would they even have a choice in a storm like this?

 Also, I had been given the wrong info earlier. She’s leaving from Boston at ~7AM Sun, not NYC. It sounds like Boston may have worse conditions due to heavier snow (5-8”) and it ending later than in NYC. 
 

I just saw that JetBlue’s next flight to ATL isn’t leaving til 4PM. That would be too late.

They will cancel the morning departure. Tell her to switch

53 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Any opinion about the chances of a flight being canceled flying from NYC ~8AM Sunday? Should she go ahead and try to see if she can reschedule for a few hours later instead of keeping her flight? She can probably leave as late as ~noon from NYC on Sunday and still make her trip. She’s flying to ATL. Thanks in advance.

What airline? They all have different approaches

1 minute ago, weatherpruf said:

"It will come down to nowcasting."

That means you have a marginal setup haha

27 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Looks like the NWS-Philly is going with the sleetier/icier forecast for almost everyone, given the advisories below with snow amounts decreased due to sleet and with freezing rain of 0.1-0.2" for most.  For most of CNJ, where I live, 2" of sleet/snow with 0.2" of ice would have the equivalent frozen mass (the freezing rain will be absorbed by the sleet/snow, not melt it) of ~6" of 10:1 snow on all surfaces.  This could be a shitstorm if places get 1/4" of ice accretion as per the NWS and some models which show even more. I think everyone would rather have all snow, but it's looking like a mix for anyone south of 78 and probably even south of 80 if these advisories are correct; wonder if Upton will follow suit.  Also, nothing will melt overnight with temps at or below 32F for most until 9-10 am, so conditions in the morning will likely still be treacherous with 2" or so of snow/sleet then maybe 0.2" of ice on top of that.  But who knows, maybe the snow will do better this time than yesterday.  

Edit: added in the newly updated NWS-Philly snow/ice maps, showing the significant deceases in snowfall forecasts for everyone, but people should know that the decreased snow will be replaced by sleet, not rain, so the frozen mass on the ground will be about the same and the amount of freezing rain forecast hasn't changed much (and that will add to the frozen mass on the ground).  

https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=PHI&wwa=winter weather advisory

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
101 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2025

NJZ009-010-012-015-PAZ054-061-062-105-106-080715-
/O.NEW.KPHI.WW.Y.0007.250208T2000Z-250209T1100Z/
Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex-Mercer-Carbon-Lehigh-Northampton-
Upper Bucks-Lower Bucks-
Including the cities of Doylestown, Trenton, Bethlehem,
Somerville, New Brunswick, Flemington, Jim Thorpe, Perkasie,
Chalfont, Allentown, Morrisville, and Easton
101 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EST
SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet
accumulations up to two inches and ice accumulations up to two
tenths of an inch.



URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
101 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2025

NJZ013-020-022-027-080715-
/O.NEW.KPHI.WW.Y.0007.250208T1700Z-250209T0700Z/
Western Monmouth-Ocean-Atlantic-Southeastern Burlington-
Including the cities of Jackson, Wharton State Forest, Freehold,
and Hammonton
101 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 2 AM EST
SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet
accumulations up to two inches and ice accumulations around one
tenth of an inch.



URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
101 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2025

NJZ001-007-008-PAZ055-080715-
/O.NEW.KPHI.WW.Y.0007.250208T2000Z-250209T1100Z/
Sussex-Warren-Morris-Monroe-
Including the cities of Morristown, Washington, Newton, and
Stroudsburg
101 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EST
SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet
accumulations between 2 and 4 inches and ice accumulations up to
one tenth of an inch.


URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
101 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2025

DEZ001-NJZ016>019-PAZ060-070-071-101>104-080715-
/O.NEW.KPHI.WW.Y.0007.250208T1700Z-250209T1100Z/
New Castle-Salem-Gloucester-Camden-Northwestern Burlington-Berks-
Delaware-Philadelphia-Western Chester-Eastern Chester-Western
Montgomery-Eastern Montgomery-
Including the cities of Honey Brook, Moorestown, West Chester,
Oxford, Pottstown, Norristown, Wilmington, Camden, Mount Holly,
Collegeville, Reading, Media, Glassboro, Lansdale, Pennsville,
Kennett Square, Cherry Hill, and Philadelphia
101 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 AM EST
SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet
accumulations up to one inch and ice accumulations between one
tenth and two tenths of an inch.

Same map further south. They have the same higher accumulations to the north.

I’m gonna take the under on this storm especially after this week with the models. I’m especially gonna take the under for the city.

if I walk away with close to 4 inches in Westchester, I’ll be pleasantly surprised. If I walk away with more than 4 inches I’m gonna be shocked.

This is gradient life boys.

40 degrees out this morning.

What exactly do you want in concreteville?

Pouring. Turned into a real rainy day.

Models real blew this one epically…and I had a lot of ice this morning

20 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

lol - should have listened to me yesterday when I got all those weenies for downplaying todays and the weekend event - Shouldn't be using the Mesoscale NAM yet.......

This.

Marginal events dont do well in NYC. Too close to coast, flat terrain, too much cement.

Im 30 miles north and today still woefully under performed.

They will find a map that they love and run with it, but it doesnt change the outcome. And let’s face it, that .5 in CPK this morning was a BS measurement

looks like we’re just about done unless this radar fills in.

Three things happened here to fuck this: 

Got going to late

They’re just isn’t a lot of precip

The warm tongue under modeled

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

yall need to run your trains underground

Hard to do when it costs billions. Nice that they have a train at all

Just now, BxEngine said:

Sleet and snow. Definitely not a non event up here, roads are horrific. Bouncing between mostly sleet and mostly snow the last 20 mins or so. 

Sums up the current situation N and W. Ill add region wide Schools closed