the_other_guy

12 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

What marginal temps ?

It is 40 right now in CPK. I love your optimism, but it will take a while to cool down tonight in city

1 hour ago, ILoveWinter said:

What are the probs that CPK gets more here vs this past monday's event? I'd say around 50/50 or even a bit higher now with these latest trends 

I think you’re asking the wrong question. I think the right question to ask is what is the probability of Central Park getting the lowest amount of snow in the region again? And I think that’s actually likely.

Again, a marginal temperature situation in a marginal winter in an urban environment. If this keeps trending north, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Northern suburbs get more snow than central Park even though Central Park has more precip than the northern suburbs. And that’s what happened this past week.

Most of us still have snow on the ground… The Central Park have any left?

What is the HRRR say

Overnight is key for the city with temps in the 30s

Wow its windy out! Wasnt expecting that this morning.

23 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Nope totally wrong, and I have a long history with them regarding this.

Great. No offense, I need more than that. 

Lost part of a tree. But with my sky high taxes, the chain saw gang was right behind the plow. Im impressed

7 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Thread was good-worked out with all the model variability.

Eyeball idea of max snow axis attached. Very sharp northern cutoff N of I84. Click for clarity. 

Little doubt in mind that Postitive snow depth change is an excellent bottom amount of expectations-it's conservative and can temper enthusiasm, then you handle the upside range as you wish via 10 to1, Kuchera , HREF.

 

You and Don did an excellent job. Early Spring type snow event

We don’t know that they do measure low.

It is a narrative on this site.

If it was really that bad at one of the Marquis weather sites in the country (because of location) it would be fixed.

The fact that it isnt tells me it isnt as bad or off as many on this site claim it to be. More of a folklore with a little grain of truth gone wild.

7 minutes ago, guinness77 said:

Sun already threatening to come out in Jamaica. Snow stopped as we entered Queens. 

Even snow cant make thar place look nice. Geez

This is typical north/west does better in these warm type events. They always do better because it’s too warm in an urban environment for snow this winter. You are overcoming A LOT with cement and 35F. 

14 hours ago, Krs4Lfe said:

Let's hope we can all capitalize on this threat on Tuesday, Checked out some of the 18z model runs, nothing to speak of coming down the pike after Tuesday. Looks high and dry

El Nino One and Done. Very common. 

This is the one for the season for the city. Enjoy it

47 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

How many times have we seen heavy snow after rain ?

I can count like 3 or 4 in my adult life. The most famous being the Xmas Day Storm with 20 people in my parents house 

3 minutes ago, NittanyWx said:

Coastal marginal temps/mixing keep things at bay accumulation wise.  it'll look nice for a period, you'll get some accumulation on grassy surfaces, but a lot of it will feel 'wasted'.  It's still better than what it looked like a couple of days ago.

 

This is game on north of the merritt/287.

This!

1 hour ago, North and West said:

We literally had 2’+ three years ago and may get snow tomorrow. No doubt global warming is occurring, but that’s a bit dramatic.


.

I’m not getting into debate on global warming. It’s ridiculous. Like the 5th winter in a row of significant warmth. Frankly, Im dont care. But I dont deny reality.

6 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Isn't this really the time of year when this kinda thing can happen though....read somewhere the NA's used to call it the snow moon or something; my neighbor's birthday is coming up and he said all his life it has been snow near his birthday.

I have an early January bday and up until recently always had snow on ground or falling within 24 hours of it. As someone else said, February was always best for snow, but it has warmed so much its all out the window

16 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

this storm is going to become a nowcasting event with possible surprises

It really isnt.

It is a 287 North/West event plus or minus a few miles.

The further south of that you are, the less significant it becomes.

This will be the fourth snow event like this this season

27 minutes ago, North and West said:

Because we live in log cabins and sod houses


.

This whole thing has gotten so ridiculous.

It is fucking science. If you want snow in marginal air you need grass trees and natural surfaces that cool rapidly .

The whole winter has become a March snow event. Its too warm, theres too much cement, there is 12 feet of elevation. Daytime, anything but heavy…you are done.

Getting mad at NW people or pretending it is a non event is literally getting angry at science and climate.

It is bizzare

Just now, psv88 said:

90% of us have been steady and clear eyed. The other 10% are all over the map and scream the loudest. 
 

you are absolutely correct. We need cold air for snow…it’s that simple. People for some reason forget this…

i’m walking the dog right now in shorts. It’s become a regular thing this winter at 287. Forget the city

1 hour ago, psv88 said:

Since it’s an all rain event it won’t make any difference lol

I love the whiplash emotions on this forum. 

For reference, I posted AccuWeather 1 to 2 inch call several days ago. They have been spot on all year. And I love how rocksteady they have been run after run after run after run of models and the whiplashing emotions on this page.

Let me tell you what’s gonna happen next in case you haven’t watched this show before. the models are gonna go south again and all these guys that want snow in the city are going to jump on board thinking it’s finally gonna happen. 

…And it wont. 

And some lawn either side of 287 will get a 2 inch snow fall.

The reason that it will happen like that is because the city is running 5° above normal this winter. And it’s too warm to snow in an urban environment with temps like that

The end

What a winter on this forum!

5 minutes ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

Just an observation - not mentioning any favorites at all - I know we never want politics to ruin this place -  but if there's any amount of disruptive snow from this storm, the effects of it on the special congressional election this Tuesday will be studied for awhile.  Especially given that the nature of the district is such that there's a significant north shore as well as south shore component.  You can theoretically have a storm on Tuesday morning which keeps much of the northern side of the district home while the south shore is dealing with mainly rain.  Add to that the fact that there's been early voting for 9 days as well, giving the early vote a potential outsized proportion of the overall vote, it really will be one for interesting discussion.

given that early voters are generally Democrat, but South shore voters are generally republican, should balance no?

18 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

When I gave my opinion on this storm, I was accused of trolling, which I wasn’t. This setup has sucked for a week and it still does and I absolutely believe it’s going to trend north even further between now and Monday morning. IMO this is not going to be a major snowstorm south of I-84. Here’s what Earthlight has to say:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

You always say 84 tho.

Thats why people tune you out and call you a troll, which isnt nice.

Last time you said 84 as I was shoveling 30 miles south of 84. 

10 minutes ago, psv88 said:

“Events” we’ve had 3 events too. 5”’of snow. What’s your total? Over 15”?

not even. all 2-3 inch events.

you are running +5 for the winter. 287 is the new coast with that. accept it and move on. Wishing for unicorns in city.

My Hydrangea bush has buds on them. 

14 hours ago, psv88 said:

All winter? We’ve had a total of one snow threat which was a few slushy inches for the coast. What am I missing?

20 miles north of you we’ve had three events.

9 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

61 here-cleaned out the garage this morning lol.   The snow removal stuff has dust on it.

frankly, you’re lucky. If you live down in the city, I don’t think my parents have had to appreciably clean any snow in years at least being north you’ve seen something.

5 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Years of disappointment and north trends have us all pessimistic. I don’t have a good feeling about this one 

Nice, solid 1-3 inch storm for…drum roll…287!