Paragon

Got anything for the November 20-30 period?

The forecasts I saw last night talked about more arctic shots starting next weekend and lasting to the end of November and then a flip to warmer weather beginning in early December. Before next weekend we should be in the 50s. What does what you're looking at have for between November 20-30?

I'd want to sue the people/companies causing the pollution. A side effect of overpopulation that needs to be remedied. Any idea what kind of pollution it was?

It might be a case of the model seeing the pattern change too early. I read that we're supposed to flip to a mild pattern starting in early December. Anything before that is likely wrong. We see the same thing happen when models forecast a change to a colder pattern- they tend to want to make it happen too early.

I actually had an idea to do that, I wonder why it isn't done like that anymore?

Tell him that dogs are supposed to eat meat!

It's an entirely different world north and west. Driving tomorrow morning into the Poconos and I see reports that the one inch of snow that fell there a few days ago is still on the ground!

Euro supposedly showing 1-2 weeks of sustained cold for Thanksgiving week and the week after that. You can get it even with a deep trough in the west if you have a steep ridge in the middle- it's called an Omega Block!

Then I must get to having my boiler fixed. I have it scheduled for next week. We've had back to back days in November with temps in the 70s and humidity near 80 percent (dp in the mid 60s)

I read somewhere that our last truly anomalous arctic outbreak (2 SD) was in 1994. The three I remember the most were that one and Christmas Day 1980 and January 1985 (inauguration day.)

ENSO gets thrown out way too much as an influencer of our local climate- there are other factors that should be used. For example, I am going to use the fact that we are having the warmest fall on record and that alone is enough to convince me we're going to have a mild winter.

Well I'm glad because my boiler still isn't fixed lol. With all this sunshine and humidity it feels like summer out there! I have my heat going lol.

Wow, those are the places where you can get all possible weather within an hour, any time of the year. Could you imagine that kind of temperature change? Must've been accompanied with some amazing winds too.

The taxes are pretty out of control and it only keeps getting worse, I suspect political corruption is to blame. I expect that you can get a lot more property out there for much less. The buyers seem to have been on the rude side, typically you should be getting a 30 day grace period to move out.

How did you end up moving to the Black Hills? I've always wanted to visit that area because I remember reading somewhere that it gets the most rapid temperature changes of any place on Earth. A place called Spearfish I think. I love temperature (or any other kind of) extremes!

We get screwed either way lol. Remember the retrograding Feb 2010 storm where Central Park got 20" inches of snow and it took our area the entire day to change over? We ended up with over an inch of rain followed by about a foot of snow. Feb 2013 was the opposite of that in that the heavier totals were to our east but we still started out with rain and ended up with a foot of snow on the back end. It was like March 2001 except with a lot more precip.

Thought it was interesting that we had sustained tropical force winds yet the gusts only made it to about 50.

It's more like 42" to 49" from what I can recall from memory, but it might be like 41.4 to 49.7, I don't have eidetic memory It should be fairly easily to compare though, take 30 year segments- 1951 to 1980 vs 1981 to 2010.

I remember some place recorded 40"- might have been CT?

But average increase of annual snowfall totals vs more frequency of big precip snow "bombs" are two different things. As you know, one big event can make up for an entire season's snowfall (a great example of this was the January 2016 big snow that dumped over 30" here.) The average annual rainfall went from around 40" during the 70s/80s to around 50" now, which is a pretty significant increase. The increase in snowfall should be transitional anyway, in a warming climate, we'll eventually get past this stage. The increasing precip totals, higher humidity levels and higher temps will have much more long term impacts though, including more tropical diseases spreading into our area (we've already been seeing that over the past decade.)

I remember the LIE became a parking lot lol, it was sort of like Boxing Day 2010 moved 60 miles further east.

No, it's probably not chance since total precip has been on a steep increase since the 70s. I remember the 70s/80s and it was an entirely different climate back then- big precip events were much much more rare. There's been a huge increase in 2"+ and even 3"+ precip events. There's been a big increase in total annual precip too.

blah that was a really bad one, I can't stand <20" snowfall seasons, most of that came in one storm that was predicted to drop 3 feet of snow in NYC and it ended up in Suffolk County instead.

Thanks did they measure snow at White Plains back then? I guess Bridgeport, CT would suffice too.

I think the closest thing to that I've experienced was 1993-94. If I remember right, JFK got about 45 inches of snow while LGA got 65 inches, not sure what White Plains got though.