Paragon

Reports now coming in of close to 40" of rain!

Thanks for that very useful piece of info, Don- it's very intuitive that IKE would also be a factor in storm track and a storm with a larger IKE would influence a storm with a smaller IKE even if the smaller IKE storm had a higher intensity.

It's often the case on the east coast that it's a race between a trough to the west and the TC coming in from the east- and the trough usually wins. In this case we have Jose as a third factor. So Maria has two negative factors to deal with; even if all three factors were equal (which they are not), the highest probability of landfall would be around 33%. What I was wondering, Don, is if Jose can influence Maria's path, can Maria also influence Jose's path (especially since it is stronger than Jose?)

Hopefully no major damage to the big radio telescope or any other part of the island (wishful thinking)

In Patricia's case wasn't that one weakening a few hours before landfall? Patricia was a world record 215 mph (not sure what her lowest pressure was) and then weakened significantly a few hours before landfall.

The sounds coming out of those forests are truly ghastly. And this storm has a long history of completely stripping trees of their leaves. The sound in the video below is terrifying, it sounds like some huge monster exhaling through its teeth.

landslides might be a big problem because of this

Yeah that was the 112 sustained / 140 gust report. I'm sure the taller peaks on PR probably exceeded that. Any idea how close the eye of Maria came to the higher mountains in east-central PR, Scott? New 8 am advisory still has the storm at 150 mph / 921 mb

No question there has been a trend towards a closer track to the east coast. Just still plenty of time for that to completely reverse itself. Yes, we have two distinct camps. So there's a lot of interest in what might happen next week, but I'm a bit burnt out staying up til 2 am looking at Jose modeling most of last week, and all we had was a couple of downpours and some nice cool breezes Still appreciate the updates though, especially since even the "out to sea" camp has the storm getting pretty close to the coast before veering away.

Still too far out to matter. Can't be thinking about this before Monday.

double digit rainfall totals already being reported!

Don, interesting list of analogs we can come up with, major hurricanes that hit PR and what they did afterwards? 1928 Cat 5, hit Fla "Lake Okeechobee Hurricane", 1932 Cat 4 as you stated, went into Central America as a TS, 1989 Hugo went on to hit SC as a Cat 4, and now we have Maria.

Yes, that's the one I just heard about. Strongest wind gust from anywhere in PR I can find is 118 mph from Santiago Harbor.

Chris, surrounding areas reported wind gusts in the 110s (113-118 mph). Strongest gust I can find anywhere is 137-140 mph (112 sustained) on a small island just to the east of PR.

Yeah, it didn't seem like it to me either, especially with the wind reports coming in it seemed more like a 135-140 mph storm at landfall.

You mean an Andrew-like scenario? That one was reclassified to a Cat 5 landfall.

Yeah none of the major models had it getting this strong. What was the minimum pressure with this- 909, I think? It was 914 with Irma. But I think the HH dropsondes found somewhat lower pressures- 905 mb with Maria, and 910 mb with Irma.

Figures it'd landfall at 155, Ray, just below Cat 5 intensity. Now we can have the argument that since winds are reported at 5 mph intervals, why 157 is the minimum for Cat 5, and not 155! Since a 157 mph wind would never be reported. Of course, based on the observations, it's doubtful this was even 155 mph sustained on landfall. More like 135-140. Last Cat 4 landfall in PR was 1932- I wonder if that was the same storm that LF'd in Fla too?

YUP, AWT ;-) sustained winds of 155 mph pressure 917 mb

Wind of 112 mph sustained gusting to 140 mph was reported earlier from Isla Culebrita Light, east of PR

ah well, at least we know that Yabucoa is the landfall point. Strongest gusts still around 100 mph?

Enjoy radar while it lasts. I am going to be extremely shocked if it lasts much longer. Velocity is already 100+ at the station. San Juan wind just gusted to 91, while the eastern coastline is gusting to 100 already.

That was my fear with this, land elevation will cause elevated wind speeds. And widespread landslides.

Down to 155 mph- very strong Cat 4 Thanks for the radar images, it really puts the storm into perspective with the PR eastern coastline.

Humacao and Fajardo to be getting the worst of the eyewall in the next few hours.