Paragon

I'm not a cold and dry kind of guy- that's a killer on heating bills with no joy. Give me snow and teens/20s, or give me 60-70 degrees with sunshine in the winter! Actually, if it's not snowing, today is perfect!

Also good for tropical threats!

Indeed. We either get 1-3 inches of snow or 10+ it seems. Moderate snowstorms have become extremely rare.

Thanks, I wonder if this will lead to a new index being used to account for this?

Remember when Dallas hit 95 earlier in November and they hadn't had a a temp of 90 or above in the entire month before that (and they had a heat wave, let alone just one 90 degree day in November!) How much was that temp above their normal high? And LA's 92 record on Thanksgiving?

Oh the place with the most weather extremes? You couldn't pay me a billion dollars to live in SD because of the fracking that occurs there. That whole region is an earthquake waiting to happen.

But you don't seem to like hot summers, and I love those, because I'm a big numbers guy and I enjoy watching the temps reach for 100, the same way I enjoy watching a 20 inch snowstorm lol. I love temperature extremes (both hot and cold) and precipitation extremes (rain, snow and even ice) and wind extremes. I was going to start a topic on this earlier, but I didn't know if anyone had the right answer for this- but where in the country is the best place to be to experience 20 inch snowstorms in the winter and 100 degree heat in the summer?

That doesn't sound right- the period you referenced isn't a quartile because it covers a four not three month period. Going by those climo standards, winter should be from the end of the first week of December to the end of the first week of March.

Interesting that March was the snowiest month in the 50s.

That sounds about normal for us lol. It's a common pattern for us during our non- el nino winters to have extreme cold sometime between Christmas and the first few days of the New Year and then flip to milder weather after the first week of January. What really decides winter is what happens after the thaw- in 95-96 it went back to cold and snowy later in January and after that- which was what made that winter great.

That's awesome, I love it when leaves stay on trees so they don't have to be raked

I saw one a few weeks ago. They're supposed to be very rare. In our area at any rate.

How about snow and lightning together ;-)

Seattle and north Texas have both had snow this year before us.

Got anything for the November 20-30 period?

The forecasts I saw last night talked about more arctic shots starting next weekend and lasting to the end of November and then a flip to warmer weather beginning in early December. Before next weekend we should be in the 50s. What does what you're looking at have for between November 20-30?

It might be a case of the model seeing the pattern change too early. I read that we're supposed to flip to a mild pattern starting in early December. Anything before that is likely wrong. We see the same thing happen when models forecast a change to a colder pattern- they tend to want to make it happen too early.

I actually had an idea to do that, I wonder why it isn't done like that anymore?

Tell him that dogs are supposed to eat meat!

It's an entirely different world north and west. Driving tomorrow morning into the Poconos and I see reports that the one inch of snow that fell there a few days ago is still on the ground!

Euro supposedly showing 1-2 weeks of sustained cold for Thanksgiving week and the week after that. You can get it even with a deep trough in the west if you have a steep ridge in the middle- it's called an Omega Block!

Then I must get to having my boiler fixed. I have it scheduled for next week. We've had back to back days in November with temps in the 70s and humidity near 80 percent (dp in the mid 60s)

I read somewhere that our last truly anomalous arctic outbreak (2 SD) was in 1994. The three I remember the most were that one and Christmas Day 1980 and January 1985 (inauguration day.)

ENSO gets thrown out way too much as an influencer of our local climate- there are other factors that should be used. For example, I am going to use the fact that we are having the warmest fall on record and that alone is enough to convince me we're going to have a mild winter.

Well I'm glad because my boiler still isn't fixed lol. With all this sunshine and humidity it feels like summer out there! I have my heat going lol.