Paragon

I would actually be happy with the 50 even if White Plains got 180 lol- I guess you have to have low expectations out here when most years we don't even reach 30.

Yup it almost gives our noreasters a sort of tropical "feel" to them in how rapidly they strengthen along the gulf stream. Our most historic coastal storms can cause damage on the same level as a TC.....case in point is December 1992.

No I mean that on the east coast you have to deal with land-sea interactions, the gulf stream, etc. You also have to factor in population density so a forecast error of 10 miles can result in a far bigger bust than what you would get out there.

no ocean there = easier forecasts!

Wind warnings are now wind advisories and in effect until 2 PM, also got coastal flood advisories until 9 AM. Most exciting thing about the storm for me was seeing the barometer fall to 28.99" Can't remember the last time that happened. The backside heavy rain was a nice treat too but that's almost over now.

What were the highs today? I hit 91.4 on Sunday.

Forky, doesn't Siberia generally have much lower temps than our side of the globe because of the larger land mass of Asia? It's much rarer to see colder air on our side of the globe than what Siberia experiences- particularly the cold pole region of Yakutsk-Omyakon-Verkhoyansk.

Thanks for your input, I believe you're right, since Katrina was a strong Cat 3 at landfall (with a Cat 5 surge.) Irma had interacted with land by the point that measurement at Naples had been recorded and wound down a bit from its Cat 4 impact in the Keys. Perhaps it was close to 140 during its original Keys landfall.

Plus the surge generated (especially with Katrina) was a Cat 5-type surge since it had spent so much time as a Cat 5 when it strengthened over the Gulf Loop. I find the measured wind gust-maximum sustained wind relationship fascinating. Do you have any data on Harvey's maximum wind gusts? I had heard they exceeded 140 at Rockport. Anyway with regards to Irma and Maria- I remember that we had a 112 sustained 142 gust with Irma, which is why that little rule of thumb I applied earlier projected an estimated 140 sustained Cat 4 at landfall. With Maria we had a 137 gust on PR and a 140 gust on a small island just east of PR, so you'd get a similar value for landfall strength.

You seem like a nice guy, but you're off the mark here. Six months of no electricity is a huge deal. Outside of that, so is 37 inches of rain in less than two days! Especially with the higher elevations there, that is a recipe for disastrous landslides. I know Josh pretty well, and I'm sure he wouldn't be downplaying the catastrophic impact this storm had. It's also characteristic of these type of events for the full scope of the damage to not be realized for awhile- at least a few weeks. Especially in rural areas. As far as Cat 3 vs Cat 4 vs Cat 5. Honestly, it's a catastrophe regardless of the category. Personally I feel that it was a Cat 4 even if the 155 mph landfall intensity was a bit generous. A little method I use to determine maximum landfall intensity (assuming that the maximum landfall wind is never actually measured) is that whatever the maximum gust that is measured, is the maximum sustained wind for the landfalling system (this has worked out for a number of systems, including Harvey and Irma.) I believe the maximum gust that was measured was 140 mph- so in my opinion this was probably a 140 mph landfalling Cat 4. Cat 5 wind gusts for elevated regions of course.

How long will this heat last? With W/NW winds, JFK could hit 90 degrees.

Thanks Chris, do you have a similar map for maximum winds?

Chris, that's close to the rainfall Houston got from Harvey in about 1/5 the time.

Earlier last night it was actually looking like a hurricane symbol!

I was hoping to get some late season swimming in when the beaches are less crowded and the rip currents next week will probably be pretty bad. Next week may be the last week to go swimming since it looks like a big cold front will come through late next week and that will probably put an end to the beach season for this year.

No, by aggravating I mean it's going to stir up rip currents next week and be bad for swimming on the east coast for those of us who like to go to the beach and enjoy late September beach weather because it's much less crowded at the beaches this time of year.

I can tell this is going to be aggravating for next week but will probably end up doing what most TCs do at that latitude- recurve.

Dr. Rick Knabb as a past director of the NHC was really good too and now we get to enjoy him on TWC. He emphasized from the beginning how bad the flooding problem with Maria would be and how flooding is the leading killer in TCs. He's on there from 9 pm to 1 am ET.

There's a very interesting difference between land interactions of elevated areas vs flatter and marshier areas. While a powerful hurricane can be humbled by higher elevations without even really making landfall there (by paralleling close to the shore), the same TC can actually maintain its energy or even strengthen over the marshier terrain of south Fla.

Worse than Harvey in some ways because of the higher elevations leading to landslides. Already hearing reports of 40" and it's not over.

I like it- no need to apologize, I am too :-) Fortunately high intelligence and creativity is also distributed amongst us hobbyists (can't teach either quality.)

Great news! I just messaged him on there.

Wow, that's horrible. How long will it be before we get a complete MW pass over the island? Some of the deeper reds seem to be near San Juan, even though the pass didn't reach the city.

What are the chances that Maria does what Jose is doing, and just stalls out offshore and loops around until the trough comes in and takes both Jose and Maria away?

Might be like Jose- remember Jose was 150 mph at one point too.