SENC

5 Days without Rain &  tolerable temps? I'll gladly take it.. 

Even Muh Rice Paddy was "drowning"   

Good Morning My fellow Weather Nerds!

I hope everyone is Loving this "Pattern change", (I know I am)..

NO, the Fish are NOT "running" yet.. (Spots & Kings etc..)

Current Conditions.. (On the Beach)

Water Temp currently is.. 82F

Winds are from the North @ 10-15 gusting to 24 mph

Swells (waves) are at 4' to 5' from the ESE and Sloppy..

ICW condition(s)..

Low of 57F High of 67F, 73F, forecasted for today 

Humidity 75 %

Precipitation 0.00 inches

The Weather went from 95 to 55..

Like it saw a State Trooper.. 

Well, this *tweet* aged well..

(The)   Hybrid low west of Portugal have LOW (re)formation chances..

Let me try, see if this works..

Image link, (shear overlaid w/Water Vapor)

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/storm.frame.php?&basin=atlantic&sname=98L&invest=YES&zoom=8&img=5&vars=1010100000100000000000000&loop=0&llval=

1 hour ago, Orangeburgwx said:

Joey Logano's 22 failed post race inspection, 98L is the winner


 

Lordy,, Orangeburgwx, I wouldn't have figured you to be a "Race Fan"..

That said...

Back to Wilfred..

Going with the Theme of It's being 2020, Unexpected things have Happened that Surprised ALL of US, Forcaster(s) AND the NHC..

In the Weather Forecasting World..

(Remembering Laura & Sally & Isaias)..

I believe We had better to expect the Unexpected.. 

Shear, Hispaniola Shedder, Upwelling, TUTTS, Throughs, are seemingly  NOT  having the "expected" effects, of "dissipation", weakening, or what-have-you. 

I think We can expect the same with, Wilfred..

I read the NHC Disco, the last two paragraphs were so much "Word salad", I mean, it seems even the NHC is not quite sure what to exactly expect..

Along with the Models, Not having a firm grasp on the future evolutions of this years TC's..

I honestly don't expect Wilfred to fully "dissipate,

My "reasoning"??? It's 2020 after all..

Of course 22L.. Failed post race inspection

Well,, that escalated quickly..  Edited Thread Title, to reflect, updated NHC choices.. 

3 hours ago, tiger_deF said:

What if Teddy defies all our expectations and just sits in the ocean, blocked by the ridge with nowhere to go for days until he's a puff of clouds?

SURFS UP!   

After this Hyper-Active Tropical Hurricane season,,  Going into Fall/Indian Summer.... (Short Lived)..

Wouldn't it be "On par" with 2020,, To get a YUGE Blizzard , about Mid-Late October/Early to Mid-November time frame, covering the WHOLE State of NC, et al?

Several feet,, in the Mountains, to 12++ inches all the way down to the Coastal Area(s)?? 

THAT would put a "Night Cap" too 2020 for the Southeastern Forum, Don't cha think?... 

T-Storm(s),    Very heavy, RAIN ATM, with Pea sized Hail, Lotsa Lighting & Thunder, (currently)..

Winds outta the SW-SSW at 18 mph, gusting to, (peak wind gust(s) 56MPH !) .. Here on the ICW..

We are under a Tornado Watch(s).. 

Tornado watch,, in My area(s) just received the Alert..

Skies here look,, so 2020 Ominous..  

1 hour ago, KPITSnow said:

Odds on this making a hard left into Boston? Will the surge be higher than Sandy? Maybe we will get a Cat 4 into Maine!

Pulls a "Florence", landfall coming from the NE, or Westward bound, (somewhere) from Maine to the Virginia/Carolinas Border... 

it IS 2020 after all..   

Picked up about 3.5 +/- inches of Rain yesterday.. High 78F

Current Temp 80F w/ .08 inch today in the bucket thus far..

Getting some pretty "wicked" Bands of T-storms coming  onto the Coast ATM, Cloudiness & steady "light rain" started this afternoon, Now getting T-storms, coming off the Ocean, Heavy rain/Wind(s) & lighting..

Sorry for the edit,  Kinda "confusing" with all these Invest's/Depressions/storms/Canes that are currently active..

8PM update..

An elongated area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south 
of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized shower and 
thunderstorm activity.  Environmental conditions are expected to be 
conducive for development during the next few days, and a tropical 
depression could form before upper-level winds become less favorable 
over the weekend.  This system is forecast to move 
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

Quote..

Quote

 

Showers and thunderstorms continue in association with an area of 
low pressure located a few hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde 
Islands.  Environmental conditions are conducive for development of 
this system and a tropical depression is likely to form during the 
next few days while the system moves generally westward at 10 to 15 
mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.[/quote]

 

Maybe Our Cat5 Caribbean Cruiser? 

 

 

1 minute ago, JakkelWx said:

Does it have an eye yet?

Wink~Wink.. 

i'm calling for Cat 5 Winds AT Flight level , (10K feet),  with Cat One effects.. 

Meh, I'll be pleasantly Surprised.. 

My extreme apologies @ Our ever vigilant MODS..

I'm trying, or WAS trying to convey,, that during Isaias, It came ashore, (landfall), during High tide..

WE ALL saw here on AmericanWx, What happened the few final hours leading up to "Landfall".. 

I'm at about, 30 +/- feet elevation, Where I reside on the ICW, HERE @ Riches Inlet..

The next morning, I went down to the ICW,, Marsh Grass & Debris was deposited as high as 12 feet ABOVE the High tide line..   

Of course OIB & Southport fared even worse..

That said,, Isaias was just Barely a Messy, CAT-1,, quickly getting organized just before landfall..

Storm Surge Took Everyone by surprise!

DO NOT discount, Storm Surge with Laura..

(Look,, I'm NOT trying to Hype this upcoming event)..

Though a Intensifying Hurricane, Forecasted, By OUR Modeling,,  possibly into a Strong Cat-2 or greater,, coming ashore (landfalling)..

Should NOT,,  be discounted for "Storm Surge" ATM, coming, making Landfall during a Rising High Tide(s)..  Across the Area(s) affected..

That is ALL, thank you for understanding.. Mods.. 

(and everyone else reading this)... 

@NavarreDon, Imagine.. Your now, (ground(s)) are extremely saturated, and then....

Having a hurricane ,, Or a very strong TS,,,  landfall..

LOTSA trees/power poles.. (ad-Infinium)  etc are going to come down! 

You have a Generator    right?   

4 hours ago, Windspeed said:

TAFB/NHC has issued a code yellow for a weak disturbance near the North Carolina coastline that is forecast to move ENE in the coming days with 20/30 probs. It does have weak mid-level vorticity and could take on more tropical characteristics in the coming days as the system moves out into the open Atlantic.

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Aug 13 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently 
upgraded Tropical Storm Josephine, located over the tropical 
Atlantic Ocean several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles.

1. A low pressure area over eastern North Carolina is expected to move 
east-northeastward across the north Atlantic well to the south of 
New England and the Canadian Maritime provinces for the next several 
days.  This system could acquire some subtropical or tropical 
characteristics during the next two to three days while it moves 
over warm sea surface temperatures.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Beven

May I please "comment" on this Code yellow , I've not really mentioned this, just "observations" via Radar/Nexrad, It's been, how can I say? Almost a Homebrew? system thats been just off the coast now,, for several days, bringing Numerous Showers & T-storms across My area, here on the coast.. You could actually "see" the cyclonic Motions on Radar, (the past 3 days),,  though I've NOT said anything, being a Weather weenie & all that.. interesting,, nether-the-less, for a possible "homebrew" system.. Maybe @shaggy &  @downeastnc, can chime in Since they are also close to "Coastal" areas here in SENC, abit just north, closer to Morehead City.. It's downright TROPICAL HUMIDITY,  right now here just north of Wilmington..

Bring it, Ready for FALL FISHING! here on the Coast!

Can I assume, that some of this is, "interaction" with the incoming Trough? I'm gettin downpours like in the #ChinaFlooding  

Getting "torrential" down pours time to time with these "bands" with some gusts in them also..