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SENC

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    Dorian

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    4 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

    I've been disconnected for a few days here in Nags Head (got engaged!) really trying not to think about this storm messing up the second half of our vacation but we were placed under a mandatory evacuation for non-residents yesterday. Being my family owns a home, it does not pertain to us. To me this looks like the prototypical NC cutter storm. A sloppy hurricane feeling continental dry air and westerly shear being pushed ots. You can see the models all make this an extremely lopsided "half-a-cane" by the time it gets here Interacting with the trough it has a heavy rain band on it's NW side and very little activity on the south and east side. This is what I expect the storm to evolve into once it gets ejected into that NE trajectory.

    Key Questions Though:

    1) How much wind energy will be retained? If I was a betting man I would say this would be an 80-90 mph storm by the time it gets here. It's former state has zero bearing up this far as it will be in an entirely different set of atmospheric conditions (and it is already rapidly weakening)

    2) How much rain will be generated inland? If that NW band develops I'd expect some 10 inch amounts. Flash flooding becomes a main issue

    3) Will it make LF and does it matter? A lopsided system spreading out wind energy with the north and west sides being strongest will not need a proper LF to see the main impacts. 

    4) How long will impacts last? Storm really looks to be honking by the time it gets here. This may be a quick 12 hour event with a 2 hour heavy blow. 

    5) The money question: Should we leave? Saturday and Sunday after the storm look wonderful. My house is on the water but has weathered far worse impacts (Isabel being the worst) and this does not appear to have the same bite. I am having a tough time leaving tomorrow thinking about getting so see some nice winds and having a beautiful weekend with the beach to ourselves after the blow.

    Thoughts?

    Buy lots of BEER & Enjoy!  

    Hurricane Dorian Banter Thread

    in Tropical Headquarters

    Posted

    5 minutes ago, yoda said:

    Believe that was SENC

    Yes, It was Me, I'm guilty..

    I STILL maintain Michael was at MOST a Cat 3..

    Same with Dorian..

    NOP 180+ mph Winds either..

    I watched enough (LIVE) video TO KNOW I was looking at Cat2 or 3 Winds..

    IN ADDITION to the very MANY Canes I've lived and experienced..

     

    Marsh Harbor, Bahamas experienced STORM Surge causing MOST of the Damage.. 

    The picture posted in the main thread, Looks, in MY experienced observations are from poorly construct SHACKS.. Noticed *well built* building(s) survived, with little to NO Damage, re: roofs are still intact..

    Just My experienced opinion.. 

    180+MPH wind(s) you would have a SAND BAR left behind, Palm tress that are just Trunks, (No palm fronds attached).. 

    If Dorian was "truly" a Cat 5.. Marsh Harbor would look like this..  

    Sand-bars-in-Philippines.jpg

    • Haha 3
    • Confused 1

    Dorian

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    Oh Jesus, What great Track(s) to wake-up to this AM..

    I'm in the process of Moving..   To a  Home *almost* on the ICW Waterfront this week..  

    whoopie! I'll be living here..  34.309653, -77.737413

    Please someone UN-PLUG the ILM hurricane magnet! stat! 

    At least I'll be able to get a good price on the Generator I'm selling..  ;) I have Two.. 

    Dorian

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    Horry Chit!, can you Imagine yet another 22" precip dump in around SENC? after last years deluge? 

    We haven't even "recovered" yet.. From Flo... In some cases Matthew either.. 

    I can see massive flooding occurring again.. 

    Paper: Science and Environmental Communication on YouTube: Strategically Distorted Communications in Online Videos on Climate Change and Climate Engineering

    in Climate Change

    Posted

    All due respect.. 

     

    Supreme Court of British Columbia dismisses Dr Michael Mann’s defamation lawsuit versus Canadian skeptic climatologist, Dr Tim Ball. Full legal costs are awarded to Dr Ball, the defendant in the case.

    The Canadian court issued it’s final ruling in favor of the Dismissal motion that was filed in May 2019 by Dr Tim Ball’s libel lawyers.

    The plaintiff Mann’s “hockey stick” graph, first published in 1998, was featured prominently in the U.N. 2001 climate report. The graph showed an “unprecedented” spike in global average temperature in the 20th Century after about 500 years of stability.

    Skeptics have long claimed Mann’s graph was fraudulent.

    https://principia-scientific.org/breaking-news-dr-tim-ball-defeats-michael-manns-climate-lawsuit/

    As I have pointed out repeatedly in this column Mann's alleged "hockey stick" couldn't be reproduced without data and formulas he refused to hand over.  Mann sued Ball claiming that Ball had libeled him.

    That appears to have been a grave error, as once in court Ball had every right to prove that his statement was not false and defamatory, with one of the defenses, of course, being that what he said was true.

    So he filed for discovery and demanded Mann's data and formulas.

    Mann refused to comply.

    In fact, Mann refused to comply for eight years.  That's right -- this lawsuit has been going on for a long time.  Mann allegedly agreed to comply in 2017 and didn't.  Eventually the BC court (Canada) got tired of the games and entered a dismissal awarding fees and costs to Ball.

    So let's recap this.

    Mann has never turned over his data and formulas.

    Mann has been asked for them repeatedly, and has refused.

    Ball repeatedly called Mann out on this to a degree that Mann believed he had been libeled (defamed in writing) and sued.

    This entitled Ball to Mann's source data and formulas, because the entirety of Mann's claim rested on Ball making a false and defamatory statement.  Truth is, in nearly all cases, an absolute defense to a libel suit.  The court agreed, and ordered Mann to turn it over.  He failed to do so, repeatedly, but to forestall a summary judgement agreed to turn the data over in 2017.   He again failed to do so and this time the court ran out of patience and told him to go suck eggs, not only dismissing his lawsuit but awarding fees and costs to the defense, which is not typically done unless the court finds that the suit was originally filed under vexatious or otherwise fraudulent pretense.

    Mann has claimed he will appeal and that he didn't "really lose."  Losing a libel case and being ordered to pay the defendant's fees and costs is usually considered losing by most people, especially when the other side asserts truth as a defense to your suit, subpoenas your data which, if it indeed showed that you were libeled you would happily turn over as it would assure you of a win in court and you refuse to comply with the subpoena.

    But, whether that's actually losing or not is something for you to decide.

    The better question is why we have someone employed at a major US University who thinks they can thumb their nose at legal process and remain employed.  Further, one has to wonder whether the University is complicit or worse.

    Note that there is no question of jurisdiction (despite the court being in Canada) because Mann was the one who sued originally and by doing so he consented to jurisdiction.

    Why is the University open to question as to their complicity?  Because everywhere I've ever worked for other people all my work product is not solely mine; at best I have a joint interest with said employer if I negotiated that in advance of my employment and in most cases the employer owns it entirely because that is the state of employment law by default in the United States.

    That is, if you employ me to write computer software to do "X" and I do, the entirety of the work product is yours, not mine.  I have no rights to it whatsoever unless, before I do the writing of the code, I negotiate something specifically covering that instance.

    So tell me once again why the University didn't order Mann to comply or simply turn over the material itself?  Is there some "side agreement" here that the public doesn't know about?

    I've pointed out multiple times that unlike Mann's "hockey stick" data, which he won't release nor will he release the formulas he used, there are other openly available data sets going back 50 or so years from satellite observations, and multiple other reconstructions going back much longer.  By definition all the other data sets are reconstructions of one sort or another simply because until the age of satellites we did not have 100% coverage of the planet on a consistent basis.

    Further, as I pointed out here (and many previous times in these pages) while CO2 levels have increased materially since 1950 or thereabouts the rate of increase in temperature has not tracked same.  The "predictions" in the IPCC "reports" have not verified.  Therefore the projections are wrong -- period.

    In addition it doesn't matter if I'm right or Mann is right.  That's because America, and indeed the entire western world, is not where the CO2 emission growth is coming from nor where it will come from in the future absent a genocidal wipe-out of people on a scale never before contemplated in the history of the planet.

    Indeed there are roughly 1.3 billion humans without electrical power in their homes today with 300 million of them, more or less, in India alone.  Sub-Saharan Africa has some 40-odd percent of their people living without electricity and roughly half of the generation capacity of the entire region is in one place -- with 90% of that being coal-fired.

    These people are not going to willingly submit to living in literal straw huts and crapping at the corner tree forever yet that is exactly the sort of "future" that climate alarmists demand of them.  What's even worse is that the screamers so-called "solutions" are all frauds; when you add up all the energy inputs to make a solar cell suddenly all that "free" sunlight isn't so free and you have to get that energy from somewhere.  The environmental destruction associated with so-called "green energy" is immense and has been intentionally offshored to keep it out of your sight but it cannot be eliminated.

    I wonder how Greta will feel if and when she realizes she's been had -- and was nothing more than a cute face used to promote a scam.

    Oh, and by the way -- the Amazon fires screamfest is a scam as well.  

    Interestingly, when NASA released the satellite image on August 21, it noted that "it is not unusual to see fires in Brazil at this time of year due to high temperatures and low humidity. Time will tell if this year is a record breaking or just within normal limits."

    But the fires are old-growth forest burning, being clear-cut for crops?

    No.  Most of it is land that has already been cleared for agricultural use and is being burned to clear it of weeds and pests prior to being planted for the upcoming season.  It's normal in that part of world, in other words.

    Are forests indeed being cleared in the Amazon?  Yes, but at materially lower rates than 20 years ago.  Like around half or less.  Further, no less an authority than Nature has reported that between the early 1980s and 2016 global tree canopy has increased, not decreased.

    Gee, why would a bunch of people lie about something like this?  It wouldn't be both political animus and money, would it?

     

    CREDITS TickerForum.. 

     

    Dorian

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    We are "watching" here in SENC...    While very Bad news for P.R.,, If It crosses the Island at whatever Cat #,, It would be quite devastating too SENC & P.R. .. .. (Or any part of the Carolinas/Caribbean )..

    Looks to be on Track, for a Anniversary of sorts for the Carolinas.. At least one good thing, It's doesn't have a "F" name..  ;) 

    July 2019 OBS

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    Skies have "blackened" to My WEST.. Lordy,,  been watching the radar since...… The front is on My backdoor, knowing US, in the Coastal plain It'll wash, just Offshore.. 

    Hallelujah, I "might" be able to open the Winders with-in the next 2 hours, those High 60's I'm seeing & hearing are looking very nice..

    Forget any grass,, My weeds are starving for water..

    I've really NOT seen heat this bad since the July of 1999..

     

     

    July 2019 OBS

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    Afternoon Folks..

    Oppressive HEAT still here in SENC.

    91 with heat index of 100.

    SSW Winds steady @22 mph gusting to 25+

    That's quite a Train of T-Storms Marching southwards.. 

    We are under a severe T-Storm Watch ATM. 

    ClimateTipping Points

    in Climate Change

    Posted

    I'm presenting a "tread" so to speak...

    To present to YOU the 'advocates" that were born/Conceived after 1985,, Early 1990's.. 

    Please read this entire thread.. Interesting news & Scientific Discussion IS,,,  in the following thread with graphs/Charts etc 

    I'll leave YOU the Dear Gentle reader with your  own conclusions..  

    I presume, Intelligent   discussion follows.. Not based on "Emotions" 

    https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1109923374568890368.html

     

     

    Mountain West Discussion

    in Central/Western States

    Posted

    On ‎6‎/‎21‎/‎2019 at 9:07 PM, raindancewx said:

    Happy late June.

    D9nz0wrVAAEGQre.png:large

    Being report some areas got up 2 feet of snow! Steamboat Springs et al

    Question for you Folks in the Mountain West areas..

    How often does snow occur this late in the year? Much less than 2 feet!

    My SIL recently moved out there with Her Husband, (Denver),, they have resided here in the SENC, NOT used to weather like that, certainly not in the Summer,.. I'm certain She is lovin this..  

    Banter Thread

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    On ‎6‎/‎21‎/‎2019 at 10:28 AM, FallsLake said:

    Happy Summer Solstice everybody! 

    Good news: The length of daylight will now start to shorten with each passing day.

    Bad news: It will continue to warm for about another month. **we have to reach equilibrium. 

    MeanWhile in Colorado, they received 2 FEET of snow in places! In June!

    https://www.cbsnews.com/video/colorado-gets-almost-2-feet-of-snow-on-the-first-day-of-summer/?ftag=COS-05-10aaa0g&utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+New+Content+(Feed)&utm_content=5d0eb9ff4079a700018e18b9&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter

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