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SENC

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    December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    KILM Local AFD finally updated after 3 Days of nothing..

     

    Short term /Saturday night through Sunday night/...
    as of 300 PM Friday...wet weather expected through this period
    as storm system tracks up and off the southeast coast. While
    the NAM was the cooler of the models, still holding to an all
    rain event for our local forecast area with wintry mix remaining
    just west and north of US through this period.

    The column will basically remain saturated through this period
    with a significant amount of rainfall expected. The track of the
    sfc low will remain off shore as it parallels the Carolina
    coast through Sunday reaching offshore of the Cape Fear coast
    sun evening. This will maintain stiff cool north-NE winds at the sfc
    while a moist onshore flow increases above the sfc, with a more
    SW flow in the mid to upper levels as shortwave digs down into
    the southern states. Overall expect increasing isentropic lift
    to drive widespread rain across the area. The best dynamic
    cooling will come Sun morning as low tracks across northern FL,
    but still looks like local area will remain in all rain. The
    overall thermal profile points to all rain throughout our local
    forecast area at this time, but the coolest NAM forecast points
    to possibility of some mixed pcp Sun morning. The NAM sounding
    for lbt Sun morning shows a decent shallow cool layer below 2k
    ft and warm nose drops toward 0c for a few hours, but the
    grounds will be wet and warmer and do not expect any impacts at
    this time. The best chc of seeing any mixed pcp will be in the
    far western reaches of Marlboro and Robeson counties.

    Expect periods of moderate to heavy rain at times with rainfall
    total 2 to 3 inches with possibly greater amounts, especially
    along the coast. The main impacts of this storm will be
    widespread rainfall, coastal flooding, river levels rising, and
    marine hazards. The coastal flooding should occur during Sunday
    morning's high tide, with potential for minor to moderate tide
    levels. Rivers will rise during this period, with potential for
    minor river flooding into early next week. Not expecting any
    flash flood problems at this time as rainfall should be steady
    and ground is not saturated from any previous rainfall.

    Although we are not expecting any wintry mix impacts in our
    local area, the temps will be running between 35 and 45 for much
    of our area through this period, producing a cold rain. The
    brisk northerly winds will make it feel even cooler.

    &&

    Long term /Monday through Friday/...
    as of 300 PM Friday...as low pressure lifts off to the
    northeast Monday, shortwave energy will dig down around the base
    of mid to upper level trough over the southeast. The models are
    hinting at low pressure developing off the southeast coast Mon
    night which should hold onto clouds and pcp a bit longer, as it
    wraps around the back end of the low. This will coincide with
    decent cold air advection. Therefore some flurries or snow showers are not out
    of the question Mon. Temps will not rise past the 40s most
    places on Mon in cold air advection with temps remaining cool through mid week
    as high pressure builds in on the back end of the low. …..

    Post a lot of Pictures Our upstate Folks! My Step=Daughter is in Pinelevel (just southEast of Raleigh), With Her GF currently, I told Her expect a "pastebomb"..
     

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