SENC

13 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

Well what do you know... My mean jumped up from 12z

 

 

Edit: holy cow that e4 run gives me over a foot

Mine too!    I "mean" at least a trace to maybe a  inch or two, maybe 3.. I'll take a 3"..   

2 hours ago, WarmNose said:

Our wave isn’t been properly sampled yet..

Another Historical "quote" for the Forum here..

3 hours ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said:

This run is a lot more realistic. I have a feeling a lot of hopes and dreams are going to be crushed later tonight as well. Amped and warm seems to be the trend here. It makes sense historically.

@TARHEELPRORGRAMMER88,, Dear Sir, You & I have had these "discos" where you have been a "EEYORE",, (no disrespect intended),  come on guy, It's a El Nino, lets bet against "Climo"..

(You know I been dead on these past couple Winters for ILM).. We gotten "something".. 

That said Look at OUR OWN NWS forecast, (long Range), when they start mentioning P-Type Issues, This far out, We just need to cast the Right Bait too bring it in.. 

**The
fact that there is split flow will lead to some interesting and
highly uncertain weather in the east over the weekend. In classic
form the southern branch will lead to cyclogenesis over the Gulf and
then East Coast while the northern branch helps to keep cool air
locked in place. This far south it just looks like a wet weekend
though some p-type issues cannot be ruled out inland. Deep
moisture will be off the coast according to most guidance but the
lagging shortwave energy could be strong enough to wring out a few
sprinkles (or flurries??). The GFS idea of a cutoff southern branch
feature and a new coastal low is relatively new at least this far
south. ***

Sounds promising considering Our Storm is this far out..

YOU KNOW HOW Conservative OUR local NWS is! just mentioning "p-type" issues this far out! should be,, well,, use your own judgement..

I say,,Let it RUN! Mor Suppression! lets reeel this Sucka IN!

To Our Weenies inland,, when ILM mentions "p-type" issues, your in the game!

Either cold rain for us via WAA, or ("warm nose" issues) are Often our Downfall here in ILM because we are "on the Ocean", Or the LP placement is too close to the coast, though We can get the "backside" P-types most often..

10 minutes ago, griteater said:

Tonight's map update from WPC...textbook look here for many

Almost a match..

I'm right along With Orangeburg.. Thus;  I  Do Have Parachutes at the ready  for everyone, when Cliffdiving commences .. (Lets hope it doesn't come to that).. 

Until then,,  Lets TRY to reel this sucka  in! 

TY @Orangeburgwx , I do have a "rudimentary" understanding.. (sorry), The "Florence" example is what I was trying to get at.. TY for making it "clearer"..

So We want "suppression" Alil more..

As in I'm not buying, (quite yet) what the further in time,  panels are advertising..  The Low, pushing up that far into these "Highs".. 

Ideally, We would want this "Low" to cut down to say, Mid-Florida (following the Contours) .. then up the Coast.. 

(I hope the picture is allowed).. My Apologies if it isn't.. 

Looks like Everyone starts out with Flakes..

though the next panel shows change-over to Mix/Rain..

Hopefully, More knowledgeable Mets can answer this..

How is this possible; the "Low" "BullDogs" (for the lack of a better term),  into these pair of  Strong highs?

Shouldn't the Low track further South off the Coast? As Neither High budges AT ALL in  the  further panels.. .. 1037 & 1036 highs?

This is What is referred to as a "Banana High"?

I heard the term mention before, just trying to learn something here..

Well dern @Orangeburgwx, We are just about the same Latitude, (well, more south &  West), though you are West of Me.. I had to look up your local..  

I Always have the Warm~nose worries as I'm, "on the Beach".. Though those Ensemble members are starting to look promising for Us?..    We need just alil more Southward "trend"..  Sorry upstate Folks.. Hopefully It's Our Turn, though I hope Everyone see some Flakes! 

58 minutes ago, UpstateSCGamecock said:

.

Just another 50~100 miles, I'm game.. 

Haven't posted in a few.. (sorry massive Hernia)..

Went Trout fishing yesterday & today, very productive, along with  puffers, (blowfish)..  Caught several SST, (lots of "spikes) kept 2 over 14 inches,,  for my "legal limit" ..

Lots of Blues in the water.. 

Saw a Bluefin tuna jump out the water yesterday... (chasing Menhaden) off the beach.. 

currently..

62 & Rain  T-storms..

Water temp is 67..

5 minutes ago, Wow said:

This time last year.  Yes, we had a storm early December last year:

You dynamiting my hopes.. By 30 days.. I'm going by the fishing bite, (if you don't mind) Fish don't lie.. Squirrels are ravaging my area.. Of course there's NO nuts, acorns etc fell due to Florence, so there's that..

Sorry "WOW" I look at natures signs..  

2 hours ago, kvegas-wx said:

I swear I rememeber we had a similar setup last year where the GFS depicted this exact outcome and the board chatter was identical..  We did end up with a winter event, but cant recall the outcome.  Ring a bell with anyone else, and if so, any similarities?

yes,,  We did  get  this?.. high 60's & low 70's,,  Did I win the chicken/oyster dinner? (EDIT) We, well I on  the coast have the same conditions as last year.. We already have had "several" thunder events, (Including today/tomorrow),  Same set-up (almost).. ? Went SST fishing, yesterday,  (speckled sea  trout) fishing the bite was off the hook literally, same as last year before the above event.. 

Like to see this again.. Edit excited about "possible chances with the secondary low" 

2 hours ago, packfan98 said:

Yep!  The low tracked pretty much due east instead of cutting.  Many ensembles have had a similar look. Here's the overblown clown map:

south 75~100 miles please..  Or the "secondary Low" too "overperform"  

On ‎11‎/‎3‎/‎2018 at 7:49 PM, fountainguy97 said:

Here it is.  Good setup and good suppressed look for this timeframe. This is not the first run either. This storm has been on the last 6-8 runs. With the most recent two being pretty identical given the timeframe.

 

Oh MY.. NO WAY! SST Temps are still in the low 70's Massive warm nose! Wilmywood getting snow in Nov? Bah Bah Bah! 

On ‎10‎/‎17‎/‎2018 at 1:03 AM, ncforecaster89 said:

Just spent some time pursuing this thread, and feel inclined to offer my own two cents regarding the debate on the landfalling intensity of hurricane Michael.

This intercept was my 31st hurricane experience dating back to 1984.  Been in 10 different “major” hurricanes, and encountered confirmed 140 mph wind gusts during hurricane Irma in Naples, just last year.

All that said, the indescribable ferocity of the winds I observed within the RMW, in Mexico Beach, was beyond anything I had ever witnessed or had conceived was possible, beforehand; meaning how can one adequately estimate the wind velocity of  such extreme winds when they’d never seen anything close to it, previously?!

The only genuine meteorological debate that merits such discussion (related to Michael’s landfall intensity) should center around whether it was truly a high-end category four or actually achieved category-five strength.  Personally, I’m in the camp that argues for a 140 kt post-storm upgrade.    

P.S.  Despite all my chase experience, I was one who underestimated just how high the surge would get where I positioned myself, and in doing so, lost my car and phone in the process.  Based on google maps, it appeared I was at an elevation that was sufficient.  My vehicle wasn’t!

So you didn't have a  portable anemometer? you left Wilmington, after your home was flooded" to chase a cane? 

On ‎10‎/‎11‎/‎2018 at 9:57 PM, twister4999 said:

SENC is on the verge of Kevin Martin troll status. 

I'm Monitoring...

Givin some of the videos/pictures coming out, I'll give My assessment.. Here in a couple Days (On Mexico Beach Landfall).. 

I was volunteering yesterday & Today,,, , re: Cajun Navy and other folks,,  running Supplies into West Pender/ Eastern Brunswick Counites yesterday.. 

So I wasn't able too participate in the Discussion yesterday.. 

God Bless everyone...

Again, I've said..

I've a OPEN Mind.. It's not closed folks..

I'm all for Healthy Debate and Discussions..

I'll BRB gotta run another Load of Supplies' to Currie, NC

ok Lets go  to Port Saint Joe.. Weather Station,, Gulf County Emergency Operations Center WeatherSTEM Station

11.4 miles from Landfall.. (Mexico beach) 

I DO NOT see Cat 4 or 5 Winds do you?

40 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said:

ok. that's all i am getting at.  you lost your data when your instrument package failed. it happens frequently in storms.  which is why HARD DATA is oftentimes hard to come by.

Lets not beat a dead horse  on this,,, Though, Multiple stations going "dead" all at the  same time?

With FED .GOV are there not "back-ups",  Generators,  things called "Redundancy"? 

Are We to believe Cell towers were still in operation, YET Anemometers were "destroyed", or not reporting?

Reference to Storm Chasers, broadcasting.., Still broadcasting Live video,,   yet ,, Anemometers & related equipment destroyed? 

Every  Anemometer in the Landfall  area(s)?

So folks bashed Me on a "buoy" that I said looked like a "lighthouse"..

WELL? here's a picture of it..

THE  Anemometer & instrument(s) are "offshore" of the Airforce base.. It HAS Batts & generators with-in it..

It's maintained by the Air Force..

So lets TAKE AGAIN Hard Data.. (I had to look hard for this)..

Folks "claimed" It FAILED.. No it didn't.. I got the "data" right HERE...

Station SGOF1 - Tyndall AFB Tower C (N4), FL

1 minute ago, the ghost of leroy said:

where is the data that says you went through what you claimed you went through in florence?

110 MPH Peak Gust(s), before My instrument got taking out by a live Oak..

We had A strong Cat 1 here.. I NEVER claimed Armageddon..  

Lost My computer due to power surges, thus, unable to retrieve that data.. (Off the hard drive it was corrupted)

Though the Surrounding Weather Stations support, in line,   what I reported, With Hard Data that was recorded..

NO HYPE here..

1 minute ago, Rjay said:

Lolz

Well? Lets have a BEER together & discuss..  NO Insults..

Healthy Debate.. 

Is all I'm asking..

8 minutes ago, Rjay said:

If i was around yesterday i would have suspended you for a month. 

Just returned from doing errands..

@Rjay Why? because of a different or  opposing view? Really, honestly?

My views are Supported by actual Data.. ?  

Is this how  Science works? 

Silencing someone or banning them?

that's good to hear..   

Listen to yourself..

BTW anyone here that has HARD DATA, supporting a Cat 4 (Or Cat 5) Landfall, present it please..

I wish to see it..

I'm asking, ya'll,  too  change MY MIND.. I'm open Ears & Mind..

not based on feelings either..

Had Tropical Storm Force Winds most of the day here..

Peak Gust was 53MPH @ 1:10 pm..

1 minute ago, mappy said:

I'm not sure what you're looking for here? you posted wind obs from towers that all went offline during the worst of the storm. I'm not sure how you can ask for data to prove you wrong, when there is no data at all to give. Tyndell AFB gusted to 130mph before going offline. Last I checked a low end Cat 2 doesn't gust to 130mph.

Mappy, see that's the thing, everyone is screaming CAT 4 or CAT 5.. Yet there is NO DATA too support this..

Not being  'snarky here" Just please bear withme.. I'm NOT trying to insult you or anyone here..

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2018/al14/al142018.update.10101853.shtml?

“Recently reported wind gusts include:

Tyndall Air Force Base: 119 mph (191 km/h)
Florida State University Panama City Campus: 116 mph (187 km/h)
University of Florida/Weatherflow Mexico Beach: 104 mph (167 km/h)”

The differences make sense, since Tyndall is right in the firing line, however in the summary:

“MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…150 MPH”

I guess that must be historical, somewhere out where it would affect only boats and seagulls. See Link

https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/met.html?id=8729210

Now reads maximum gusts of 76kn and sustained of a “terrifying” 142 + kn

2 minutes ago, Freshgeek said:

The BILLIONS of dollars in damage and AIRCRAFT reconnaissance say THAT you data is NOT telling the whole STORY. You dont WANT to listen to THE experts and PEOPLE who know more than you, all WHILE ignoring the evidence YOU asked for because...reasons.

 

No amount of random CAPITALIZATIONS will make you correct. 

your screaming MUH FEELING, MUH FEELINGS..!!!

While  not presenting one IOTA of hard Data..