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SENC

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    Winter 2020-2021 whining thread

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    7 hours ago, davenc said:

    So, aallll that precip in TN even up into KY,  is that all going to just disappear once it hits the Appalachians? Charlotte and the rest of the western and central piedmont get nothing? 

       The radar looks juicy and I'm sitting at 31 with dew point of 24!!!!

     What givez?

    No Snow for you.. 

    January 8th event obs

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    (Local NWS) for My Coastal area(s)..

      

    .SYNOPSIS...
A storm system will impact the area with cold and blustery
winds today, with increasing clouds and isolated showers,
followed by widespread showers tonight.

 The showers may change over to, or mix with snow and sleet from I-95 eastward across
interior SE NC, tonight into pre-dawn Saturday, before moving
off the coast just prior to daybreak Saturday. No accumulation
of snow or ice is expected. Drying with fair and cool weather
can be expected over the weekend. A less intense system may
bring rain to area Monday night and Tuesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Dry slot lifting NNE, will bring infusion of cloud `re- fill`,
after which by late afternoon, upper cold pool rotates across
NE SC and SE NC, bringing widespread showers from west to east,
and some of this apt to change over to -SHSN and IP in the
evening as NW winds bring bolstered cold air advection. `Cold
air chasing moisture` will see overlap, to bring brief frozen
pcpn tonight, favored over interior SE NC. Accumulations of ice
or snow not anticipated on roadways, as temps on the concrete
surfaces are likely to melt quickly, anything arriving frozen.
Will see what 12z data brings in terms of -SHSN/IP adjustments,
that will shape messaging into the main issuances this aftn.

     

     

    January 8th event obs

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    Can (I) assume the ULL is making the "transfer" ATM? To the Coast?

    We went from Sunny to VERY cloudy Skies, in the past hour..

     

    Cloud deck has Lowered,  & looks (Ominous)  AND NWS is now calling for a "mix" here on the Coast, Later this afternoon/tonight..

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2020

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    This was the coldest morning of the cold wave across the interior Southeastern states.  Temperatures in Talladega reached 1 degree, 4 in Birmingham, 6 in Atlanta, 9 in Crestview (Florida), 11 in Pensacola, and 13 in Tallahassee.  It was absolutely brutal in the North Carolina mountains with -18 degrees recorded in Banner Elk, -7 on Grandfather Mountain, and -5 in Blowing Rock.

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2020

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    Morning Folks..

    Another beautiful Day on Tap for the Coast! 

    77/54 Currently 54F..

    (Loving this Pattern Change)!

    Clear Skies, No wind(s) to speak of..

    Well outta the North @ 2mph..

    Your current Beach Conditions..

    Water Temp is still at a toasty 84F

    Winds light WNW @ 4 mph..

    Waves/swell, 1ft and the Ocean looks like a lake..  ;) 

     

    Honestly, This September, with the Pattern change, feels like, the "Fall" Weather when, I was Young & growing up in the 70's..

    Starting school and there was a chill in the air in the mornings..

    Unlike the past several, Sept. & Octobers, (like last year) We were still being "BAKED" under 90F+ temps and Dew/Humidity's near 90% ..

    This is certainly a VERY Welcome respite..

    Lordy, I'm almost tempted to turn on the HEAT this Morning! 

     

    • Like 1

    Sept 2020 Obs

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    53/72

    Currently 68 & breezy..

    Carolina Blue Skies..

    Winds out of the N @ 10mph

    On the Beach...

    NE Winds 15~20, gusting to 30MPH..

    Waves: Lets go Surfing!  Nice Swells this Morning 6 too 7 feet, Kinda Choppy, (Due to Wind), though VERY Surfable!  

    Tropical Storm Beta

    in Tropical Headquarters

    Posted

    NHC Disco/Update... 

    Beta has generally changed little overnight.  The storm remains
strongly sheared with deep convection confined to the north and
northeast of the low-level center.  A combination of flight-level,
SFMR, and dropsonde data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters a few
hours ago supports keeping the 50-kt initial intensity.  It should
be noted that the wind field is quite asymmetric with the strongest
winds located in the deep convection and farther to the northeast
behind an old frontal boundary.

Beta was caught in weak steering currents for nearly a day, but
it now seems to be moving.  The current initial motion estimate is
west-northwestward at 3 kt. A mid-level ridge currently centered
over the southwestern U.S. is forecast to slide eastward, which
should cause Beta to move a little faster to the west-northwestward
later today.  This motion should continue for a couple of days,
taking the storm to the Texas coast on Monday or Monday night.
After Beta moves inland, the ridge is forecast to move away as a
shortwave trough approaches from the west.  This change in the
pattern is expected to cause Beta to slow down, or even stall, on
Tuesday and then turn northeastward after that.  The NHC track
forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope, and it is
fairly similar to the previous prediction.

The tropical storm is currently in an environment of about 20 kt of
southwesterly wind shear and a fair amount of dry air, especially
on the west side of the circulation.  Since the shear is not
expected to decrease much while Beta moves into an even drier and
more stable air mass, little change in intensity is expected
through landfall in 36 to 48 hours.  After Beta moves inland,
steady weakening is forecast due to a combination of land
interaction, dry air, and an increase in southwesterly shear.  The
models are in fair agreement, and this forecast is largely an
update of the previous one.

    TS Wilfred

    in Tropical Headquarters

    Posted 

    It is unclear if Wilfred still exists, and if so, exactly where it
is located. Although there is clear evidence of a broad elongated
circulation, the formerly small center of Wilfred is either
obscured by higher clouds or has dissipated. AMSR-2 microwave
imagery at 0431 UTC showed only evidence of a northwest-southeast
oriented trough with one or more embedded mesoscale lows. Visible
imagery and the next round of ASCAT passes will hopefully provide
more information about Wilfred's status later this morning. The
intensity remains 35 kt based on ASCAT data from last night, but
more recent Dvorak estimates are lower.

Due to the uncertainty associated with Wilfred's status and
location, the motion estimate is a very uncertain 295/15 kt. In
general, Wilfred or its eventual remnants should continue on a
west-northwestward heading today, and then could turn westward by
early Monday. The NHC forecast is very similar to the previous one
and lies near the middle of the guidance suite.

Virtually no change has been made to the official intensity
forecast. Wilfred will likely gradually weaken until it dissipates
due to a combination of increasing wind shear and a dry
environment. The exact point at which Wilfred will become a trough
varies from model to model, but confidence is fairly high that
Wilfred won't last much longer than another day or two. The NHC 
forecast carries Wilfred for 48 h based on persistence from the 
previous advisory, but if recent trends hold, it could dissipate as 
soon as later today.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/0900Z 15.0N  42.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  20/1800Z 15.7N  44.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  21/0600Z 16.2N  46.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  21/1800Z 16.5N  48.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  22/0600Z 16.7N  50.3W   25 KT  30 MPH
 60H  22/1800Z...DISSIPATED
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