SENC

Great PHB Folks..

From KILM here on the Coast..

High pressure nosing in from the northeast on Saturday while a
potent trough dives south into the Ark-La-Tex. The wedge will keep
highs stuck in the low to mid 40s north of I-95 while southern areas
see upper 40s. Saturday night as the upper low crosses the Gulf
States its initial surface low will be directly underneath the upper
low. At the same time height falls and strengthening warm advection
cause falling pressure off the Southeast coast and POPs will be
rising. The 00Z guidance suite is showing some semblance of coming
towards a solution, but at this time it seems that none of them
probably have the evolution of the low level features correct. The
GFS probably looks the most suspect in its (new) depiction of a dual-
centered low though it has some faint support from the Canadian. The
EC solution indicates that the coastal low immediately comes to
dominate especially by 12Z Sunday. The aforementioned congealing of
just about all guidance is for a slightly slower progression as well
as a storm track closer to the coast. For our CWA this means that
the opportunity for wintry precip has decreased. At this time it
looks like what may start as light rain early on will then change to
a chance for wintry precip as the wetbulb process causes
temperatures to fall, especially inland. The closer track suggests
that this window may be small before the warm air aloft overwhelms
the system and most of the event is a cold rain, and possibly a
substantial drought-relieving one at that. It is worth stressing
however that this is only one model run and there still appears to
be an increasing chance for a significant ice storm SOMEWHERE in the
Carolinas. 

Lovin it..
On the Coast!
Current Temps 63F

Pressure 29.91 in
Visibility 8 miles
Clouds Partly Cloudy
Dew Point 60 F
Humidity 90 %

11 hours ago, Scorpion said:

I’d love to experience a hurricane up there sometime. Beautiful northern forest and hurricane force winds. Would just set myself up on an exposed ridge on an observation tower. Probably be hard to stay warm though.

No you don't trust me.. 

AF Recon Teal73 almost on the scene.. 

NOAA43 departed Lakeland, now just leaving Fl. coastline

18 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Michael was a Cat 1

Ya got that right..

35 minutes ago, sojitodd said:

 

*If the levees fail it is gonna be partly YOUR FAULT!!-you admitted it! You admitted you were part of the whole sh**ty job of it!   j/k of course...kinda.

I thought it would be someone elses fault? isn't that how it ends? Asking for a friend..    Wishcasting a Cat 5 on Top on #NOLA,, complete Leeve Failures,,  I jest.. 

[quote]Ok, so my post responding to the crazy person ranting about climate change and the left was deleted, but that stays up. Nice storm mode.[/quote]

I rather enjoyed His *RANT* coming from a retired COE,, It's called "Truth telling" & He's probably right.. 

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Doctors appointments are not memorable unless it’s a colonoscopy.

Not unless it's snake bites, gator attacks, Bull sharks , We just deal with it..  

41 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

I feel CT would be sent back to the dark ages if a real hurricane hit.  It’s bad enough when you’re getting a minor storm and it’s gonna knock a million people out for a week plus

Need to come to SENC after a cane...  Ya'll are WEAK.. 2 weeks the NORM.. Country folks can survive & all that.. 

4 hours ago, ncforecaster89 said:

Me neither!  Must be a new type of differential equation.  After all, it was the least favorite course I took towards obtaining my meteorological degree...aside from Calc II.  Then again, I’m not sure anyone could decipher it. 
 

I believe it's that New alien, Common Core Maff I've been hearing about?  Anyhoo BOT.. Interesting Analyses, We here in SENC up too OBX Coast(s) have had, about our wettest Summer eva, and Lotsa QPF could be our demise,, Dennis/Floyd esq, type stuff,, In other words extreme flooding very possible..   If some of those Forecast tracks, come to pass..

1 minute ago, AmpedVort said:

Cannot believe this has a chance to get a name - Fred

Can You pass My way, What your Smoking? 

On 6/29/2021 at 9:46 PM, jburns said:

If the water is low enough just reach under the rocks and pull them out by hand.

Best bait too use catching trout.. It's going to be My first try this weekend.. (Gatlinburg,tenn areas).. 

Current Obs, just alil warm out..

Roughly 2.0" of precip here in the ILM FA.. SENC/carolinas region.. 

74/85.. light rain currently
drought canceled..

Most *Notable*, (In My book)..

Yes I've resided in Wilmington, since (forever),, anything after 1969..  My earliest memories, dob in the early 60's.. 

56/48

Light rain..

here on the beach's

wonderful! 

BTW NO GAS down here! 

Pics & video..

(LINK).. Hail falls across several counties in the Cape Fear Region (wect.com)

Rain/Hail & Thunder..

My Mater plants/ beans got the Smack down today, May no survive Round #2.. (currently)..

Not very often you experience HAIL here, Pea & ping pong sized, on/in SENC on the beaches..

At least the Pollen has been "cleaned" somewhat..

Second Round of Rain/Thunder/Lighting & Hail, today.. I assume things broke the "Cap" quickly after this  mornings storms.. 

Currently 63f 

65/48

Thunder/lighting Rain & Hail..

49/74 here in Surf City..

Currently 69F

Need alil rain to beat back the pollen..

2 hours ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Snow reported in the Triad 

My STEP~Daughters (girlfriend ) reports Flakes/Flizzard down around "Pine Level?" area's ,, In the Johnston/S.Wake,, County.. Just a few, not enough too really even report?