SENC

@Solak, outta curiosity, I had to, I've never heard the "term" mentioned before either.. So, I looked it up.. corfidi vector A procedure for operationally predicting the movement of the meso-beta scale convective elements responsible for the heavy rain in mesoscale convective complexes is presented. The procedure is based on the well known concepts that the motion of convective systems can be considered as the sum of an advective component, given by the mean motion of the cells comprising the system, and a propagation component, defined by the rate and location of new cell formation relative to existing cells. These concepts and the forecast procedure are examined using 103 mesoscale convective systems, 99 of which are mesoscale convective complexes. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/publications/corfidi/mccthes.htm Corfidi Vector The "Corfidi Upshear" vector is an estimate of net storm motion for a "backbuilding" MCS, where the low-level storm inflow is subtracted from the mean wind. The "Corfidi Downshear" vector is an estimate of net storm motion for a "forward propagating" MCS where the low-level storm inflow is added to the mean wind. https://www.weather.gov/grb/meso_help So I "assume", by the RAH Disco means, "Multiple" Training rainfall/Precipitation "events" due to interaction of MESO convective complex (storm(s)) interacting with the Upper Level Jet influence? Just My non-educated guess... Oh NOW, I see, Reading Comprehension problems on My behalf this afternoon, ( Had a Late/morning ALL nighter, still on My first Cup O' Joe)I see Why you underlined the Upper Level thing.. Edit too add, everything I've read has to do with a Low Level Jet, I'm Missing something, here...?? Hence yours (and our confusion?) Is it a Typo?

What does the "Fox" says?.. GFS-FV3..

Can I quote you on that? We'll see how this ages over time..

Interesting look into Fantasy land

@Orangeburgwx, this round, ULL, petered out before it got here.. It did look promising.. My daughter, in Tabor City-Whiteville, did get a slight dusting.. Moister just, "ran out" before it got too my Local.. Maybe on the GFS-FV3 you can start that for the Dec 25th..(hinting,, looks exciting)!

Agreed, watching radar from ILM, the snow has been creeping south,, it's with-in 50 miles, of ILM.. Edit to add the radar returns are "blossoming" as it get closer to the coast.. 35F DP of 31

Well, the FV3-GFS is HINTING for something possible happening..

Same here @Lookout, extreme light returns, though IT is SNOWING .. currently 40 with a dew of 33.

I'm "experiencing" Extremely Light snow Flurries" ATM, Pixel sized flakes, But,, it IS SNOWING here in WILM!

Believe it or not.. I'm getting extremely light SNOW Flurries! Pixel size flakes, though FLAKES & snow neither the less!

Thank you for the Kind words.. Wish I could report something other than wind driven Cold Rain though, it is, what it is living around ILM.. that's life.. I feel "Our" probabilities here in SENC & SC are Certainly, "elevated" to get a Wintery event over the course of this Winter.. Hope your "pregnancy" goes well for you & your Sig other on a healthy Girl..

@Orangeburgwx We just may get a second chance. (I saw a few big wet sloppy flakes about 5:30 am this morning, so theres that)… Local AFD here. Concerning the ULL.. However later tonight a deformation zone and or east to west 850-700mb frontogenesis band develops within the complex mid level pattern. This area will take up residence just along our northern zones or close proximity to. Although deep moisture will be limited, the dynamics of this feature will allow showers and or areas of rain to develop moreso during the day Monday. I don't expect anything heavy or any wintry precipitation, but the extended duration of light rain and or showers could add up to quarter to half an inch or so. Don't expect too much movement in temperatures with the main storyline being much cooler Monday as cold air advection behind departing surface low pressure warrants. (lets hope things trend COLDER!)..

Our Local NWS has this too say.. I think as this Storm overperformed the UUL will also?

My friend up at/near Highrock Lake is reporting near Whiteout conditions ATM

Just chatting with My friend, Lives up by High Rock Lake, just south of Lexington, N.C. He says, He's got something like 8 inches and it's still, POURING snow there..

Same here @yotaman, @36F here, Wet-COLD & Fugly outside, thinking about a Steaming Pot of Chili today.. congrats to ALL upstate that cashed in! Post LOTSA Pictures!

Glad & Happy everyone "cashed-in" on this one, really enjoying the pictures so far.. Oh, so close for Us down here on the Coast.. Hopefully We can catch a "backside" Wiff.. Local NWS is calling for it later on..

@shaggy & @Downeastnc eyeballing Radar, ya'll look to have yet another Super heavy band incoming.. Peeking outside for a bit.. See a "super heavy" Semi-melted Flake falling every now & then.. I think I've bottomed out on Temps setting @ 36F with a Dew point of 33F Winds have "switched" to the NE now at 15 mph..

Oh My look at this Station report.. (Here in Wilmington.. ) Talk about that Amazing CAD!

@shaggy,, My Brother, just Messaged Me, He's reporting Rain/SN mixed.. He resides in Sneads Ferry, N.C., He's currently under a bright "yellow" band on Radar.. Looks like I'm about get a Dry slot here for a bit.. Temps have Crashed here to now 36F,, Talk about a temperature forecast BUST Again that CAD is AMAZING! Light Rain ATM Still ENE Winds @ 13mph

My Daughter in Whiteville, (Columbus Co) just Messaged Me, She is seeing Flakes, huge ones.. (under the bright bands on Radar)..

Dern @shaggy My local nexrad radar shows you got ALL SN (and still creeping southwards towards Me)

Temps just fell another degree now at 38F/37 dew..

Temps are busting WAY on the low side Here in WILM! Heavy rain rates off & on.. That CAD is AMAZING! Doubt I'll see ANY Flakes, but My temps have crashed From the "Forecasted 46F" overnight temps" Temps have fallin to 39F dew point of 37F and still Falling!!!!! Strong ENE winds @ 13 mph.. Watching the Rain/Ice snow line creeping south, about 75miles away from the coast!

Shades of the 2017, bust.. Just IMOP,(and I was rooting for ya'll!)..