eduggs

What a sweet looking storm for the ALB area. Looking like 24-30 hours of snow up that way. 1"+ liquid, no mixing, great ratios. Those types of long duration, all-snow, big QPF events don't happen very often. Should be a great event for the HV too, but the wraparound shuts off a little quicker than further north.

The RRFS is snowier than the NAM for sure, but the RRFS also shifted northward with the heaviest snow and the thermals. 12z had better ratios and was a mid-HV down to near NYC jack. 18z has it up near ALB with heavy snows to the NY border. Obviously it will shift around somewhat but it's disappointing not to see a clear colder/south trend at 18z so far.

But haven't we heard this dozens of times before marginal events?... but it's almost always correct with mix lines being further north than the consensus of other guidance.

From the clown maps it looks like the City south gets more QPF as sleet than as snow.

The NAM is irritating and somehow predictable. Meaningful QPF lost to sleet and then pronounced dryslot with little lingering wraparound. It's also totally believable. We really need to see a meaningful shift south in some guidance tonight - not just holds - to give us room to think the sleet line won't zoom north Sunday afternoon.

Me too. Was still hoping for clear improvement and more breathing room.

The southern stream wave in TX sharpened up a bit again this run

If you cycle the past 6 runs or so of the NAM you can see the phase getting slightly sloppier over time. The northern stream is little by little shearing off the top of the trof instead of phasing back into the southern stream. It's still a good phase of energy and moisture, just not as extreme as a day or two ago. That trend is really helping keep the primary SLP and the bulk of precipitation south of the NY-Canada border... I'm really hoping it helps just enough to stave off too much sleet and reduce the severity of the dryslot. On the flip side, it might lead to a reduction in total QPF.

The 18z HRRR is actually not that far off from the 12z GFS in terms of northern extent of precip. shield and snow - mix line. It appears to be flattening the height field a little bit more like the GFS although not quite as much. It's definitely south of the 12z RGEM positions.

The HRRR is noticably south of the 12z NAM in terms of mix line from KY to the mid-Atl. It looks about as good as I figured it could at the end of its run.

No noteworthy changes between the 18z and 12z HRRR through 41 hours outside typical noise. 850mb heights look a tiny bit flatter.

No concerns on the 18z HRRR through 29hrs. It's a touch flatter, colder, and slower down south... exactly what I was hoping to see. But it's obviously not impacting us yet. Sure the HRRR is less reliable at range, but its 6-hr trends are sometimes useful.

Yup. ECM-AI was maybe a hair better.

Locally I've seen 1 storm of this forecast magnitude locally since 2019. Interior NNJ missed out on a few coastals in recent years. There have been very very few 6" storms around these parts over the past half decade outside of higher elevations... really hoping we can bring this one home. Weekend daylight snows are the best!

Models have been showing steadily less precipitation into Michigan and southern Ontario reflecting the lessening trof angle. That makes the synoptics more workable for us and makes it much less likely the NAM will signal a shift to a sleet bomb ending as ZR. As I've mentioned, when Saranac Lake, NY and Burlington, VT get big snows, we usually do not.

The GFS has been holding out on bringing sleet to NENJ, Westchester, and the south shore of CT. This run it finally did briefly - even viewed on the 6hr panels. But its run-to-run shifts fortunately haven't been huge. And it looked like the GFS actually made bigger moves south of us around 48hr with an initially sharper trof before shifting east later in the run... like it was playing catch up initially on the phasing but still picking up on the trend towards a more positively tilted trof angle.

Sleet to LI by 0z but still a great run CNJ north.

The GFS is joining the other guidance but not quite to the RGEM it looks like. Pretty good model agreement.

Looks like the GFS is going to be more amped/warmer than 6z at least.

Agreed about the primary - that's key. A weaker, further south primary won't push the dryslot as far north. That could lead to a continuation of light precipitation after the thump into the overnight as opposed to a quick end. The RGEM has been steadily flatting the longwave trof, which would be associated with a weaker primary... but models historically weaken this feature too quickly.

Add the RRFS to the models that have improved at 12z. It shifted the thermals and surface features south. Looks like a great run for most of our forum. And it's not quite over here with some light wraparound stuff still to move through.

RGEM and ICON look like holds to me in terms of the thermals. The ICON might actually be a tiny hair warmer but 6z was a weenie run. The NAM was better. I guess the positive takeaway is we have pretty good run to run consistency and even inter-model consistency now that the GFS is getting closer to consensus.

Synoptically very similar to 6z on the RGEM but less thump. Big snowfall gradient right across the urban corridor - but not much room for comfort. The overall longwave trof has steadily been shifting less sharply tilted over the past 5 or 6 runs on the RGEM if anybody wants to cycle through them on TT. This has been gradually delaying the onset and shifting the northern limit of the primary surface reflection south. I was hoping for an improvement but we got a hold with less lucky banding.

NAM! Great to see the primary shift south. Sweet run! The sleet is usually north of where 3rd party graphics show it, so the 3km is probably closer to reality with that run. But it's huge to reverse the north/warming trend that it was showing for several runs! And this run introduces more lingering snows into Monday! Also saw last night's ICON - wow. RRFS also shifted south but yikes on the Euro. Could be a big gradient across CNJ or SENY. LFG