eduggs

I think that's a bit of wishful thinking. The GFS is still on its own with jackpot snows from DCA to NYC. If the 18z was better than 12z, it was a minor shift. I haven't seen good images yet of 500mb/700mb/850mb.

Most of us are still right on the edge IMO. I disagree with the sentiment that today has seen positive trends. I'm encouraged by the stability of the AI models, but the UK, CMC/RGEM, ECM, and NAM have persistent mid-level lows that are right at the cusp of eating into snow totals with sleet. That really hasn't changed much since last night. I expect that future NAM runs will lead the way in terms of signalling how far advanced the warm nose gets. This could still be 4" or 18" at NYC.

Except for those no longer under development, every single model is better than it used to be. And compared to 10 years ago they are significantly better than they used to be. Personal feelings otherwise stem from various cognitive biases and being hyper focused on a localized area.

ECM-AI looks great! At worst it's a hold but it looked a hair flatter and colder. It can't resolve warm layers so they'll be more sleet on the southern edge than shown, but I trust its synoptic representation more than the GFS. Clearly a lot more amped than the GFS but it suggests NYC can approach the higher end of the 6-12" as opposed to languishing towards the lower end.

Ugh the UK is back to being really amped at 18z. It's wild how much sharper the trof is on the UK and RGEM compared to GFS especially near OK and MO at only 66 hours.

I feel like the GFS is just torturing us. It's hard to unsee widespread 20" clown maps, which would make 7" of snow/sleet to dryslot while BGM and ALB snows for 30 hrs more annoying. Storm after storm this year the GFS has been an outlier until under 48 hours. If only we had any confidence in the model... but maybe it will do better this time around with more southern stream involvement.

That's why I specifically mentioned the northern Dacks and northern VT. My point was that when that area scores, we usually don't and vice versa. It's possible for Mt. Snow and NYC to share a good snowstorm but much less likely with Stowe and NYC.

I'd much rather see the GFS stay south than shift north. You figure maybe its "seeing" something that will foretell a compromise solution down the line. And ya gotta respect it going down with the ship. But it is a shame that it's been an outlier so many times this winter and been wrong pretty much every time.

I spend a lot of time up there. Northern Adirondacks and Greens north of I-89 have been very snowy. CVT and SVT closer to average. The icon is a better model than the GFS. This isn't 1997. The world has caught up and surpassed us.

Kuchera.

We'll get a piece of this one. But it should have been ours. Shame the north country is weaseling its way to another win. Great winter so far up there.

ICON with a nasty gradient north of NYC. 6" for JFK with 2' in Orange and Putnam.

With this kind of high amplitude trof hanging back over the central US on the RGEM there's a chance a surface reflection lingers on Monday and we could score a bit more snow. SNE has a better chance, but we still have a shot to extend this.

Yikes on the RGEM. Sleet comes in really fast. 12 hours of snow would be great. But that's not a long duration snow event and we're greedy.

Nice run from the RRFS as well. 1" liquid all snow for most of our area as precip. lightens up late Sun. with the dryslot. It looked a tick cooler than 12z. The details don't matter that much at this point. But what I think is important is that we stop seeing further north trends. So far with the NAM and RRFS at worst the northern solution appears to have held. If we go much past this point it becomes increasingly difficult to reverse the trend at the last minute and we start introducing the possibility of ZR to CNJ and even rain for the S & E coasts of NJ.

Yup, cooled a touch across our area. Pretty solid CNJ north with sleet and dryslot at the end. Very curious if there would be any snow on Monday from that trof back to the west.

Just saw the 15z SREF mean 500mb flattened a bit compared to 9z... just probing for good news. They were super amped to start but any shift in a better direction is welcomed.

As shown that's a snow sounding. But in reality when the ECMWF model sounding looks like that, it usually verifies as sleet. Either the model or more likely the 3rd party vendor lack the vertical resolution to properly depict the sounding. That's why the plot looks too linear and granular. Using the NAM as a reference, there's probably a warmer layer in there below 700mb.

They generally don't like to make big changes shift to shift to avoid a windshield wiper effect. Heavier snow to the south reflects the model consensus from a day or two ago. If the further north solutions persist, future maps will gradually reflect that.

Should be interesting model runs later today and especially tonight. We are riding the edge between a significant event and something historic. A small shift either way from this spot will make a huge difference in the feel and impact of the event.

Just a reminder that 850mb is not the warmest layer. The warmest NAM layer (in between 850mb and 700mb) is several degrees C warmer than 850mb.

Sleet walks are much less enjoyable than snow walks.

I'll be following the ECM-AI closely too. Anecdotally it's done great this year. That and the NAM for how far north mixing gets. The AIs plus CMC are pretty amped - it looks like that's where we're headed. The GFS is heavily discounted in my mind.

Sure everybody would enjoy a 6"+ thump on Sunday. But it's much more enjoyable if you don't have to sweat the pending sleet. The hypervigilance for the tell-tale signs of change over distracts from the experience.

Yeah the ratio thing is silly. But I still think a 12+ solution in possible. The 6z ECM/ECM-AI looked solid. Same with the 12z RGEM. We just have to hope for a flatter shortwave across the mid-south and mid-west in the run up.