Bryan63

For what it's worth, I had a 7am flight out of Logan Monday and Delta strongly suggested finding alternative times. Granted I was flying to Memphis, connecting at LaGuardia so the whole route is impacted by this. Happily scrapped my work trip so I can stay home for this.

WPC Forecast Model guidance generally remains in good agreement with the aforementioned large scale pattern evolution, however differences in the details persist. The most notable question deals with how much interaction we see between the southern stream and northern stream energy over the Plains, and the overall depth/strength of the resultant trough. More interaction and a stronger trough would likely result in stronger downstream ridging and thus a farther north storm track. This is indeed what just about all the 00z models are trending towards. Generally a clean sweep, with the deterministic physics based models, ensemble means, and AI guidance all shifting north with the storm track. This trend really has little to no impact on the fact that a widespread and significant winter storm is going to occur...but it does play a big factor in exactly where the rain/ice/snow lines set up. So how confident are we in this trend, and will it continue or revert back to earlier runs, is the big question. Given the nearly unanimous trend in this direction, and at least a couple model runs in a row showing such a trend, it does seem like this shift has some merit. However, overall run to run consistency has shown pretty large swings with the exact handling of both the southern and northern stream energy. Suspect that the exact details of these features is far from settled upon...especially the northern stream energy which is currently strung out across much of western Canada into the arctic. Thus tend to think that the unanimous model trend could be a slight mirage and suggests more confidence in a solution than there actually is at this point. Either way, it should be stressed that in just about every outcome we get a widespread and major winter storm with many areas getting significant impacts regardless of these exact details. These details are, however, important for exactly where the maximum snow and ice totals occur. The current WPC QPF and temperatures were derived before much of this 00z guidance was available, and thus is a bit south of the new consensus. As described above, no guarantee we don't see a shift back south in later models...but assuming some persistence in the 06z/12z models then the WPC update today would likely shift north to at least some extent..

Between chances here, and how things are shaping up in the Midwest, my work trip I really don't want to go on Monday morning is looking increasingly unlikely. Lets get this thing across the finish line.

Some nice steady snow again just fluffing things up

Absolute winter wonderland, everything covered, branches and lines hanging low. Holiday with no school or work to rush off to, just awesome stuff.

This has been more than I expected, definitely the most snow we've gotten since moving back to Mass.

Best part of this wet pasty snow is how it sticks to everything. Like a snow globe outside.

Ripping out there, definitely wet though which will probably keep totals down.

34 and light snow, really awesome wintry day. Hopefully between the 2nd half coming together and the Pats we all have plenty to cheer about later.

Up to 33 and rates slowing down now.

PD has call into dpw to get trucks out due to accidents and road conditions. They're usually pretty on top of it in Middleboro, have to imagine this morning caught them off guard.

Fair enough, with the constant back and forth reaction to every run and a sick kid at home I sort of checked out over last few days. Pleasant winter morning nonetheless.

This morning has been lovely, was not really expecting anything until later today.

Huge aggregates, almost sounds ice rimmed hitting off the patio window. Roads covered.

If we can stay under this for a bit it's going to add up quickly.

Man this band is awesome, fat flakes immediately covering everything.

Would this qualify as a messenger shuffle?

Even mother nature knows the Pats will need some help slowing down the Texans pass rush.

I am travel for work the week of the 27th so you can pretty much lock that storm in now.

Time to lock this one up, nothing to change here.

This morning was a nice win. Was expecting maybe some light flurries at best, but everything from the roads to driveway even with salt down has a nice coating on it.

Still going but can see it coming to and end on the radar. Probably the best snow my son has seen to this point in his life after spending the first 3 years in NC.

This is awesome, can barely see across the street.

Inside with our 1 yr old who is not a fan of getting bundled up, sent our 6 yr old out who was begging to shovel the driveway so that he can experience this band coming through. Love that he loves snow and winter as much as I do.