Chicago Storm

useless record ruining stat-padding snow tonight.

And just like that... We are not only out of the running for least snowy February on record, but we are out of the running for top 5 least snowy as well.

Running the numbers just roughly off of the NWS forecast (Likely underdone a bit early next week), we are in the running for the top 5 warmest, but not close to 1st. We would need temps to overperform their current forecast by quite a bit to make a run at the record warmest.

A tie for the least snowiest February is in serious jeopardy this evening/tonight. Luckily, I'm working...

Most of that is fake LES snow. The HRRR is still terrible in handling LES for some reason. It’s almost always significantly overdone.

The PDO does have an effect. However, one single factor does not dictate the outcome as a whole, multiple factors do.

I was out biking in the preserve across from home before work today and noticed several species of trees are budding...especially some types of maples. Came across one tree in particular that had moved past budding and was beginning to green out. Can't recall seeing that occur this early before, even in years with warmer February periods.

the climate non-sense in every thread has gotten old quick.

read more, post less.

As mentioned a few days ago, the seasonal demise of the SPV continues to be on the horizon, and earlier than average. This is a warming to demise evolution.

like any other winter, nothing new there.

Several things to watch as we head towards the conclusion of February... Warmest February's 1. 39.0° - 1882 2. 38.7° - 1998 3. 38.0° - 2017 4. 37.5° - 1954 5. 37.3° - 1877 6. 37.1° - 1930 7. 36.6° - 2024 (Thru 2/18) 8. 36.5° - 1878 9. 35.8° - 1976 10. 35.6° - 1931 Least Snowy February's 1. T - 2024 (Thru 2/18) 1. T - 2017 1. T - 1998 1. T - 1987 5. 0.3" - 1996 5. 0.3" - 1921 7. 0.4" - 1995 8. 0.4" - 1931 9. 0.5" - 1915 10. 0.9" - 1922 Driest February's 1. 0.06" - 1877 2. 0.10" - 2024 (Thru 2/18) 3. 0.13" - 1920 4. 0.19" - 2003 5. 0.25" - 1969 6. 0.33" - 1958 7. 0.38" - 1947 7. 0.38" - 1921 9. 0.41" - 1995 9. 0.41" - 1982

The lake likely added up to 6-10” in NE IL.

Yea, guidance has backed off of showing a full blown SSWE, but we are most definitely seeing significant stratospheric warming. The effects are and will be similar to that of an actual SSWE, with high latitude blocking. However, given the pattern alignment and the lack of MJO support, it is unlikely to bring any consistent, significant, noteworthy, or interesting wintry weather to these parts, at least for the foreseeable future.

I’ve been waiting to hit mid-month, and now that we have, this thread is about to get cookin’…

solid february we’re having.

Chicago/O'Hare had a high temperature of 56° on Friday, which tied the record high temperature for the date of 56°, which was set in 1886.

Chicago/O'Hare had a high temperature of 56° on February 9th, which tied the record high max temperature for the date of 56°, which was set in 1886.

Ah, good ole useless weather politics at play yet again.

can definitely tell you’re new here.

Had a storm brush by here at ORD a short time ago. It produced a very brief burst of 0.50” hail. There is a corridor of several reports of 0.50” to 1.00” hail from SW to SE to ENE of here.

Obviously there has been some severe, but if dew points had gotten as high as the outlier guidance had shown, things would have been off to the races today.

Now there's a tor warning and a brief tornado report. Activity is working into an area with cooler temps/higher dew points, thus smaller spreads.

It's high based from all reports from those on it. Nearby OBS is 60/47, so makes sense.

Regarding today across IA/IL/WI... Not too surprising, but the four-some of models that were most enthused with today have been too high with dew points across the target area. The HRRR, RAP, FV3, and RRFS had been consistently advertising a solid area of low-mid 50's dew points developing across the target area. However, in reality dew points are running several degrees behind those projections, only in the mid-upper 40's as of 2PM.