Chicago Storm
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Everything posted by Chicago Storm
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Random question, what do you personally think the max amount you can see iyby is?
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I'd disagree. The Hudson PV lobe was farther west this run, and with a faster system, it had nowhere to go...and it still had the PV lobe coming down immediately behind it. Have to watch for that in future runs, as that could be another potential issue.
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That's been shown for a while now. Main system shears out as it's squashed by both PV lobes, however that run.
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The combination of the PV lobe south of the Hudson being further west, plus the wave/storm faster and a bit south likely means this run comes in south overall with the system.
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0z NAM coming in stronger and faster in Canada.
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Late January-Early February Clipper Train
Chicago Storm replied to Hoosier's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
0.7" at ORD and here with todays clipper. -
18z ECMWF came in a bit north. SLP previously tracked south of I-80 in IL, now tracks along I-80.
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18z GEFS jumped north as well.
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Just quickly glancing at it, one difference I see is the wave is a bit less amped and more positive tilt longer than more northern guidance. There's probably more to it, but that's was just a quick glance. 18z ECMWF will be out after 5PM sometime.
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Late January-Early February Clipper Train
Chicago Storm replied to Hoosier's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
Have had a steady light snow here for the past couple of hours. -
Quite true. Record chaser 4 lyfe here though.
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I'd just about rule out decent accumulations down there as well at this point, unfortunately.
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I'd wait till 0z's tomorrow evening for here and out your way. I-80 on south can throw it in now though.
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18z GFS is going north too.
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Trough this run actually went neutral tilt earlier, thus a bit farther north solution.
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Most 12z ECMWF ENS's are around or to the south of the OP track.
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6-9” CID, 3-6” IOW. So right around there is the gradient. .
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The 12z ECMWF was south of the 6z run. 10-15” across N. Illinois this run. .
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Longevity of the most severe cold has definitely trended back to a significant degree.
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Good news is that even the GFS with the miss north for the hybrid storm, still has lows in the -30's and highs in the -20's on Wed.
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Some of the moving pieces were sampled for today's 12z runs, with more for the 0z runs tonight and 12z runs tomorrow. Full sampling will be done for 0z runs tomorrow night.
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It may correct south, but I think it's safe to say the farthest south the main/heaviest snowfall axis will set up is I-80.
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Ends up very close to MKE.
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12z GFS gonna be a bit north and stronger.
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6z ECMWF only goes out to 90hrs. The 0z ENS also shifted north and shorter duration as well. .
