Winds are offshore, so it’s really not lake related. It’s more-so the UHI there as well as areas further west being more low-lying and cold air drainage areas, commonly colder during nights like this. .
0z RGEM only goes out to 48hr...but it would be way north.
At 48hr SLP is just west of Fargo, ND...and is on a heading to go towards MSP. Yes, I said MSP.