ldub23

You were wise. GFS says the first low is 0/0 now but it does develop another one that will recurve 400 miles east of Bermuda. I still think the ATL will produce several biggies in oct/nov but 300-400 miles east of bermuda is where they will likely go.

LOL, nice try. We had a Category 5 hurricane in the MDR last year. We've already had a Category 5 hurricane that developed out of the MDR this year. *eyeroll* And since we have had 2 cloudless waves that couldnt do anything in the MDR. The MDR has done nothing since Beryl. In 2023 it was a 1 storm MDR season like this year. All the others were very weak storms that dissipated over water. Franklin couldnt get going till far north of the MDR. No one thinks last year was an active MDR season

Oct/Nov will be big this year with several strong storms forming in the central Atlantic ocean but its doubtful they will get as far west as 300 miles east of Bermuda. 2025 cant be worse than this season unless the muti-year pattern of a dead MDR continues.

06 GFS agrees with your forecast.

Well done

Lets see it

I think they already do

I dont think we will have to worry about running out of names this season but sept/oct should be normally active.

For the seasonal forecasters it has been the worst season. Big sept/oct coming though

Sort of surprising CSU didnt drop their numbers in half

Past Labor Day. Probably less than the intrepid tropics follower would expect to see on an ensemble in a season that was supposed to be average, not to mention a 25/12/6 season

Perhaps. Euro shows very little out to 4 weeks but it does show the shift to a winterlike pattern. CSU and others forecasts of a big US landfall season seem unlikely.

We are in peak season during a season that was supposed to be super duper and the hurricane season from Hell and the models cant even come up with a fantasy cane. Has to be too much dry air. I doubt the season will be rip roaring in Oct.

I think it can still hit New England. Just will need a few adjustments. Also the first of many east coast threats.

8.479 out of 10

GFS says rare NE hit

GFS shows 1 storm then nothing else thru AUG25. Thats 2 in AUG.

Late August: Favorable conditions will shift eastward, maintaining high activity across the Atlantic. Maintain high activity? I would be happy if the ATL could maintain any activity. 2 things stand out here for me. Its a perfect set up for a continued conveyor belt of dust into the ATL. Also, we have now shifted back to the pattern of the last 3 years with a trof in the central ATL and low pressure anchored in the NW Atlantic. While CSU says we have above normal odds of canes and majors hitting the US the rest of the season this pattern says the NW Carib isnt going to be favorable, the coast is protected, and landfalls will be sparse unless the pattern reverses. For some reason you have to click twice on the itty bitty picture

If the GFS is right and there is nothing to AUG22, which means it will be at least another week for a storm to develop CSU must really really think sept*Oct will be super charged. Coming down to 14/7/3 would make more sense. 10/5/2 the rest of the way

2004/05/1933 its not going to be.

I saw but it seems unlikely. 25 named storms? Lets say Aug has 2. We need 10 in sept and 10 in OCT. Aug has to be busy to get to 25 and nothing now says busy. Eric Webb says the MJO is Favorable now and wont be in Sept. The season so far is 2 tropical storms hitting the US with the only reason they got to a cat1 was interaction with land. We all saw how all the forecasters were saying how super favorable the tropics were this season. Im not seeing it. Once again the Mdr is choked with dust, dry as a desert, with sinking air added in. Beryl was a butterfly effect thing where somehow it managed to do the impossible but that isnt going to keep on happening. We arent even getting a sniff of anything developing in the subtropics this season. I have no idea what has to happen to get moisture into the Atlantic again but el nino, la nina, anything inbetween and we end up with a dead MDR.

Debby struggled all the way across just to have convection. Still looks very dry and loaded with sinking air.

Jinxed. GFS is hilarious. Stalls then flies west like a bat out of Hell. All the way to Alabama now at 144. SE VA north the same daily rain we have been getting for 2 months

clouds rain and an east wind is far better than 98 and sun. Future Debby is a threat here in SE VA