ldub23

The type of season is my interpretation. A season where real tropical lows struggle in very hostile conditions while non tropical lows have a better chance. Im ignoring Grace because i think it will fall apart and Fred might make it to a sheared lopsided min cat1.. I dont think Grace should have been named and its doubtful there is a real center now. Phase 2 MJO, LATE aug and on the Euro there is a green thing in the central tropical atlantic. More suppressive phase will be here in Sept. And its rather suppressive now. I have to reply here. I mention phase 2 MJO so much because its supposed to be the EL PRIMO phase for tropical development. So far its produced nothing of note. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-opertc2.cgi?time=2021081500&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=192hr

I agree with JB. In this type of season the low from outside the tropics is the one to watch.

Yea, very el nino like. Phase 2 MJO isnt doing much. 2 very very weak lows.

So is that finally going to end the constant flood here? Phase2 MJO still not producing anything of note.

JB says grace will be crushed by Fred.

GFS back to showing it a hurricane. Wind and flooding for many on here.

Yea GFS dropped it. If this is MJO phase 2 its not doing much.

12 GFS much weaker. See if Euro shows anything.

The Euro isnt showing anything. Cant find the 06 gfs to see if it still shows anything. At least something is showing on a model.

But Supposedly we are in the most favorable phase of the MJO and still basically nothing. Dead Fred and a very struggling 95L.

Sounds good but something is stopping anything of note developing. I have read in several places we will be back in a suppressive phase in Sept. Seems like an awful small window now for a hurricane to form.

Here is a 168hr map. Supposedly we are in the super duper favorable num 2 MJO, Just about at peak, and basically nothing. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/cmc/2021081200/slp28.png Euro http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-opertc2.cgi?time=2021081200&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=168hr

GFS keeps it very weak. 1009mb at "landfall". I think conditions might not be all that favorable in the GOM.

Wow.

Lets see if the Euro starts showing something.

East pac doing much better.

Fred looks like its coming apart before it hits the mountains. I think JB was a bit premature talking about Katrina.

If all we get out of phase 2 MJO is dead fred and nothing else Sept will be really bad http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/ecmwf-oper/2021081100/slp8.png

I said AUG will have 1 or 2 weak storms.

Euro shows nothing after Fred. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/ecmwf-oper/2021081000/slp8.png

JB mentions Katrina!!

Yea, very weak. MJO phase 2 needs to get its act together.

Euro has a green dot south of PR. Deadsville http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/ecmwf-oper/2021080900/slp2.png

Doesnt appear the Euro shows anything.

When JB starts lowering his numbers its means alot. Its like when he starts cutting his winter snowfall totals, you know its done. Of course an Andrew is always possible like 1 big snow in an otherwise very warm winter.