ldub23

12Z the major hurricane turned into a 1010mb nothing. 2 other weak lows. For peak season this is rather pathetic. There is also a potent TUTT which is no doubt why the monster cane turned into a tame teletubby. This is Sept 01 with absolutely nothing of note. At least at 06Z you could see the edge of the phantom cane in the lower right.

0Z not all that thrilling for phase 2 and season peak. Hints and signs though!!

Several points. If they dont get close to land them im still right because the preseason forecasts had higher than normal chances for a season of note. If all we get is climo or less im right because this was supposed to be at least more active than normal if not hyperactive. And finally, 06Z GFS put the lid back on with tons of dry air and higher than normal pressures in the MDR. And, i dont give a rats rear end about some weak low that forms at 33N 54W and zippity doo-dahs NE. Here is the 06 GFS with the lid firmly back on. Are a few storms going to form between now and Oct 01(the season will have an early end)? Sure, but i am quite confident the preseason forecasts are going to fall flat on their faces. With this pattern the waves will come off way too far north to even matter and any wave that manages to get into the Sahara has a doubtful future at best. We have one hell of a TUTT out there as well. Looking at that pattern any miracle storm that does form in the MDR is bebopping out to sea so its meaningless. Now, keeping alive the hopes for a 1 storm season of note we need to look at the high pressure over the Northeast. IF that can hold thru mid Sept then we need to hope something can get going in the far western basin under the ridge. *******Im not being a jerk i simply can not reply to people here because i can only post 5 times a day. I can talk via PM.

Its been so dead in the tropics i figured i would post this. Its a quote for Larry Cosgroves great newsletter. "And should we follow the pattern seen in the Southern Hemisphere, with more and frequent cold pool advances toward the Equator, and flip it to our side of the world, then an argument exists for a very active, and notably colder winter to the right of the Rocky Mountains to the East Coast. We still have time to look at pattern evolution. But if you are a fan of winter weather, you should be smiling right about now. I know I am!" I think we will see 150% of normal snow from RIC-BOS.

We are in phase 2 at the peak of the season(aug/sept) and not a single cane is forecast by any model. This is why i think Sept will be below normal. Phase 2 will be gone by mid sept, if not sooner. At least phase 2 is producing another cane in the east pac.

I agree. The season ending winter pattern has arrived early. I am also surprised that once again we are in the super duper favorable phase 2. I must have missed how phase2=The Sahara. 100% dead MDR and even if that weak low forms off VA and is partly tropical its the exact thing you would expect to see in a dead season. Mid Nov and this would be a big early season Snowstorm for the NE. Another nail in the coffin of the 2022 Sahara caneless season. It looks like the phase 2 sahara version of the MJO will be gone by Sept 10. After that they may not have graphs that will be able to show the massive lack of moisture in the MDR. CSU, if you are listening do an emergency update and forecast 4/1/0 for the rest of the season. Lows have been regualrly forming in the massive offshore trof for sometime. We have one today, though not as strong as the low next week. The sad thing is for snow and cold lovers that eventually this wintertime pattern will reverse to a pattern that would be favorable for hurricanes but by that time all it would lead to is a mild winter.

The way this season is going 5 posts a day will be just fine, lol. As we can see here the reason the GFS contines to keep the Sahara bone dry is because of super duper high pressure in the tropics. Look at the last frame. INCREDIBLE. No wave will make it thru that. We will see just how much the gulf and carib can do with this pattern. I suspect not much. Also, move your eyes north from the tropics and notice there is no wheel. High pressure just keeps moving west to east and never locks in. That pattern is NOT conducive to late season activity. We are already getting cooler than normal air in the east now. I didnt think that would start till mid Sept. This is the early winter pattern i have been talking about. I hope texas gets some beneficial rain and even without a weak low the rain is coming. Here is the GFS forecast for TX rain In summary this pattern will have to reverse or sept will be as dead as Aug. And if the pattern doesnt reverse i will have to disagree about Oct. Addendum: Also notice the coast of Africa. Because of the super duper wooper high pressure the waves are squeezed way too far north so there may not even be any waves to worry about.

A quick td trying to develop in a year that was supposed to be hyperactive. *sighs*

Now can you explain how wanting something translates into making it happen? And would you be nice enough to go into the winter threads and scold them for wanting weather that kills far more than hurricanes. Right now in the mid-Atlantic forum they are in panic and meltdown because the evidence seems to indicate a mild winter. Let them know they should be rejoicing and arent being nice wanting weather that kills. Oh, and please let storm chasers(who desperately want strong tornados and hurricanes to form though no doubt they can claim purity by using their thoughts to keep what they want from hitting populated areas) know your feelings about what they desire. If someone, anyone, can show how I, snow and cold lovers, storm chasers, and others can control the weather with our thoughts please do so. No one who posts on this forum came here to post because they like warm sunny 72 degrees days year round. And one last thing. No doubt we will get someone saying, yea i want to watch cat 5 hurricanes but i want them to stay out to sea. Its awesome you can control them that way. I sure cant. *I dont want to sound harsh. I am quite certain you mean well and want the best for everyone.

When JB threw in the towel earlier this morning i knew things were looking OK. There will still be a few storms, i think anyway. As i said earlier a nothing can spin up just off the African coast. IF,and i do mean IF, a wheel forms and locks in then its possible to get something in the bahamas or NE GOM. Something else i noticed. For quite some time Dr Knabb has been saying the favorable conditions were going to leave the EAST PAC and move over the Atlantic. He wasnt using climo. It was going to happen. Then 3 days ago he started to talk about how CLIMO said the atlantic would get more active. We can still have a 1 storm season where 1 storm manages to make it thru.

Sad that in the middle of what supposed to be a very active season we get to read about dust in FLA. JB is starting to go wobbly. Says we "should" see activity pick up but for the first time this season brings up a model saying nothing will happen. JB is beginning the process of backtracking. 0/0/0 Aug? Followed by a 0/0/0 Sept??. All JB is doing now is reciting climo. Its AUG 11. Things damn well better pick up. Oh, if this is phase 2 in the Atlantic what does an unfavorable phase look like? Oh, again what does an unfavorable phase of the MJO look like? If we are in phase 2 now maybe we need phase 17.38 Does phase 2 look like this? I am so rooting for a 0/0/0 Aug. Oh, and look at the African coast. Waves will come off too far north to matter anyway. My guess is the only place we MAY see development in the Sahara is just off the African coast. If a strong wave can time its splash down into the atlantic with a brief pocket of moisture it might spin up into a weak nothing before it bebops north or croaks of thirst.

Glad you are getting rain and cooler temps. Im starting to wonder if Aug is 1/0/0 or even 0/0/0 could Sept be even deader? Could Sept be -1/-1/-1?. New CFS just in and it makes the Sahara look like a tropical paradise compared to the dried up prune ATL. CSU needs to do an emergency update to 4/1/0 for the rest of the season. October to the rescue!! I have been reading where the experts are saying the super duper favorable conditions were going to vamoose in sept. Maybe the ATL will just dry up and we can walk to Africa. To be fair here is what Klotzbach just said. The Atlantic cant do what he is implying if the CFS is right. I hope and pray Phil is right but im doubtful. Warm SST's are great but they cant overcome what the CFS is showing. Ill go with the 2009 52.6 ace.

GFS says 0/0/0 is very possible except for 1 weak nothing in the middle of nowhwere. I guess the GOOD news is that would be another name. The bad news? It appears to get stuck in the central atlantic. That means killing the already anemic wave train and flooding the Atlantic with massive dry air. Oh, the east pac el nino cane fest just keeps on going. Normally the reason the east pac slows down in a typical season is a wave will finally develop in the tropical atlantic which in turn ends the wave train entering the east pac. Absolutely no sign of that on the 12Z. I seriously doubt that 1972, 73, 74, 82, 83, 97 looked as barren as this. 2 more East Pac canes lined up and ready to rumble with more on the way in an impressive East Pac El Nino. Yes, those years were barren and this season mimics them. 2 more points. A- The experts are now already telling us when the super favorable conditions will leave the Atlantic before they even begin(maybe they have begun and this is the best they can do). Thats not a good sign for even a normal season. B-This nowhere man weakie comes from 97L. What does that tell us? In dead seasons storms have to escape the tropics to develop. What the hell, 1 more fun idea C-Maybe with the wheel to help, 97L will get trapped and do a Ginger and come all the way back to the US coast and listen to what JB says about how this amazing Super Season will feature in close rapid feedback development and turn into a cat 4 just before hitting Cape Lookout. Yea, thats the ticket!! 100% chance of that happening. D-Can we all chip in and pay for California water dumping Planes to load up with water and dump them in the bone dry Atlantic?

Looks like the wheel is going to be wasted. At least it will be cooler here. Give JB credit for the wheel but will it only last a week? I hope it lasts for 3 months like the Trof did. 0/0/0 still on the table for August. Something weak might pop up but zip for August would be pretty cool. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/ecmwf-oper/2022081000/slp8.png

Well said. JB is the role model for many.

97L bites the dust. Ive issued a Slow and Tame warning. There are some changes in the pattern. Texas will get wetter, the east is cooling and the wheel might be coming. Maybe by sept 10 the tropics will be active.

The wheel seems to be there but there is nothing that can take advantage of it. 97L just has no chance and while 18Z had a hurricane cruising west after 97, 0Z is much weaker and north. East pac continues to roar on with cane after cane. Im sure by sept 05 conditions will improve.

Im cancelling the Fast and Furious watch and replacing it with a Dry as a bone warning. I feel sorry for the poor waves in Africa. Before they head off the coast into the Sahara i hope they have their wills up to date. At least i can see signs of the wheel showing up. East pac has 3 areas of interest and 1 hurricane while the ATL has this.

Nothingburger in a sea of dry air with the locked and loaded central atlantic low making this 1983. If this is the best this crummy clump of clouds can do i dont count this as the beginning of the season. Nothing behind the wave either due to the central atlantic low. Amazing that i wanted a pattern change and got one, and it was even worse than before, lol. This is the peak of the season? Nothing? Oh, and this is for the ghouls who pray for snow and cold in the winter. Each year in the United States, about 1,330 people die of cold exposure, essentially freezing to death. You may picture outdoor adventurers dying of hypothermia on snowy mountaintops. While rates are higher in rural areas, many cold-related deaths and illnesses occur in cities too. www.publichealthpost.org/research/counting-cold-related-deaths-new-york-city/ The Dangers of Cold Weather - Public Health Post For some reason this picture wont display but if you click on it the ATL is as dead as a rusty doorknob. BUT!!! IS THAT A WHEEL IM SEEING? http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-opertc2.cgi?time=2022080812&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=192hr

Well said, and tornado chasers beg and pray for F5's to get videos to sell. Winter weather kills more than hurricanes. Sunny weather kills people.. Now here is the perfect pattern and the GFS has a cat 2 almost on top of me. But, somehow it doesnt get turned by the low at 240 hours and the GFS has been showing canes here and there for several weeks. At 0Z it had a storm hitting the GOM thata gone at 06Z.

Meanwhile, this latest super wave has trended weaker and weaker on all models. At the very best its a short lived nothing. This wasnt advertised as a season without MDR canes. As far as that group of showers off the se coast if this were just a normal season it might have a chance to sit there and develop. It isnt a normal season, its a dead season with a huge west ATL trof. That means nothing will be able to be trapped off the se coast and develop. For that to happen you need a locked in High over the NW ATL. With a trof all you can possibly get is a very weak strung out low ripping NE with no chance to be anything more than a weak depression that CANT threaten the US. Here is a perfect example of what this hideous pattern can produce. What do we see? The never ending trof off the coast is what we see with another trof ripping east to reinforce it. On the offshore trof we have 2 very weak lows trying to form, but thats all they can ever be because there is no blocking high to keep them in place to develop. They just get stretched out NE and will never amount to anything. And once once once once again the whole pattern, no moisture in the MDR, mega west atl trof, all models agreeing there will be no MDR season, and the latest ballyhooed wave never amounting to anything makes the CFS quite believable. I will leave you all on a positive note however. See that one blue line in the upper right corner? Thats winter baby!! That will eventually put an early end to this miserable bust of a season. *It would certainly be nice if some of the pro mets on here can explain how the season is still going to be active. And here is the map 24 hours later. We see the same 2 areas that were trying to develop. They CANT and WONT because yet again we have a monster trof blasting off the east coast. Even in the totally dead season of 1986 we had hurricane Charley form off NC and hit as a cat1 in NC and SE VA because it had time to organize. I have alot of respect for Larry Cosgrove. He has been the only met who early on recognized the reality of the season. https://groups.google.com/g/weatheramerica/c/gT3GLZPcgow "The major islands, Caribbean Sea nations, and the Eastern Seaboard all have prominent windows for a named storm or hurricane strike in a window between August 23 and October 15. But I will repeat that the number of storms will likely be reduced from the two years past, since the Maximum Development Region convection will be reduced, and chances for a Gulf Coast impact are crushed because the heat ridge complex will either be over Texas or the "Four Corners". Steering and subsidence can greatly reduce your chances at seeing a prominent tropical cyclone. Despite whatever you read on an internet weather forum or because waters near your community are incredibly warm." I hope he is right about the eastern seaboard though that wont happen unless or until a locked in ridge replaces the trof. He is certainly right about a Gulf coast impact being highly unlikely. Finally its LC vs JB

I found this on another site. The CFS says everyone yelling about the favorable condidtions coming are nuts. It has 1 weak nothing between aug 20-sept 26. 0/0/0 Sept possible? Pretty amazing really. A few days after CSU says 18/8/4. NOAA about the same, and JB issues a fast and furious watch and just this morning implies hyperactive is coming the CFS takes a dump on them saying 1 nothing between Aug20 and Sept 26

Euro a bit less enthusiastic on the wave. However JB says it "MAY" get hyperactive "In close" will be hard to get unless the mega trof is replaced with the Wheel. Meanwhile the East Pac is hyperactive with 3 lined up and more on the way. For a hyperactive atl that will also have to change. WOW!!!!!!!!!! GFS showing the first wintertime low ripping across the eastern US. Earlier than even i thought Meanwhile, even though the "experts" insist the tropics are primed to come alive the Euro is pathetic thru Aug22. Lets face it, anyone now saying the tropics are going to come alive are just repeating climo, nothing more. They sure as hell better come alive if there is going to be a season. Finally at hour 384 we have 1 trof protective trof off the coast while yet another one is slamming east to replace it. 54 this aint. The whole US coast is snug as a bug in a rug with this pattern.

Atlantic ridge totally gone. Just when the experts are all in unison on the favorable conditions arriving we get stuck with a massive central atlantic low and no ridging. What a piece of crap dead season. Have the "experts been more wrong? DT-"August will be sideways" NOPE JB-Fast and furious watch-NOPE Another 1954-NOPE The Wheel-NOPE CSU-18/8/4 Still way too high At least winter time conditions will arrive early putting an end to the Non-season. Next up: The super duper awesome fantastic favorable condidtions will arrive by Sept 15. Without ridging it doesnt matter how many canes form. Its all zippity doo dah bebop east of Bermuda. And while the Atlantic ridge said "So long, Suckers" the overall pattern remains. Mega west ATL trof. This is why im confident of a very early ending season.

The good news and the bad news. The good news is both the GFS and Euro develop a very weak low that might be a short lived TD/TS. But then they run into very unfavorable conditions in the west atl and poof. This overall pattern remains horrific for anything worth following. Gigantic low in the central ATL plunging more dry air into the tropics. Mega trof remains entrenched along and off the east coast. Nothing fast and furious about this pattern. If that low locks in then there is no hurricane season. Looks like the MJO and the moisture is still locked and loaded in the east pac. Not sure i have seen a worse looking map in mid AUG for tropical development. For whats its worth that super central atlantic low should cause additional warming in the tropical sst's.