ldub23

But less fishy than 06Z

JB has spoken. This will be the upcoming winter.

T The GFS came alive

All i see is a weak broad low in the west GOM. No hurricane anywhere thru aug 31.

GFS has a cane in the GOM but it seems highly unlikely that will happen. At 216 is where it begins but what actually will happen is it develops in the east pac. The pattern hasnt changed 1 iota because there is nothing behind it developing. 0/0 Aug thru aug 30 on the GFS now except for an unlikely GOM cane. I think the GFS is confusing the Colombian heat low that is hostile for development for an actual disturbance. Another argument against development is that huge front blasting off the east coast. As i often say if you want to see west carib/gom development you want a locked and loaded high dominating the west ATL. Since its peak and something should be happening i give it a 1% chance. Only a 99% chance it doesnt develop

read fast

First hint the GFS might be starting the season For the first time it shows something developing behind the cane hitting TX which could indicate a pattern change But then it shows a second low forming in the west gom

You didnt mention it was on its way to cat5. Im skeptical though because there is nothing behind it which says the pattern hasnt changed. It will be really hard to get a hurricane in the GOM anytime soon with the East pac on fire like this.

The Man says it again. This will be a Sept to remember. 1954? 85? https://www.cfact.org/2023/08/11/hurricane-update/ "This hurricane season, a September to remember is on the table. The expected impacts on the U.S. Coast have increased compared to the last forecast. Keep in mind that this is, in essence, a “normal” season. 1985 and 1954 were “normal” seasons but had a high impact, and this may be like that." And just wait till next season. Double the numbers, triple the fun Note that next year may be a doozy of a season. I believe this is a bounce-back El Niño in response to the longest and strongest MEI El Niño on record, so we should collapse it and go back to a La Niña base state. SSTs will remain warm, and so that may be a season number-wise (at least for totals) two times higher than this year.

06 gfs has nothing except a weak low thats going to recurve. Im amazed NOAA was so high and no one is reducing numbers by alot.

GFS has this but im doubtful because if things are more favorable then there would be something behind it and there isnt and JB is saying it again This is the euro you mentioned. 5 more days and it might be where the gfs has the cane

The problem with that is an eastern trof kills homegrown systems. All you can ever get is weak, strung out systems moving swiftly Northeast with no chance to do anything. The pattern has to reverse to a ridge over the nw ATL that locks in. JB is implying that saying the Northeast will avg 2-4 degrees above normal aug20-sept 30. We will see. The American Storm @BigJoeBastardi Hottest weather of the summer season likely in big NE cities Aug 20-Sep. 30. 2-4 above average in that time in a summer that has largely been near normal. I am sure we will hear about that too, once it shows up 4:09 PM · Aug 9, 2023 · 2,811 Views 2.4 above normal implies a west atlantic ridge that would trap a developing low and allow it to develop unlike the trof we have now.

The actual tropics are never favorable anymore whether its el nino, la nina or lo neutro

More signs

Thats why its just a SIGN of life. Like the last few years nothing will be easy to develop.

Related to my deleted post the euro shows some signs of life. The gfs at the end of its run shows a large high building in the Northeast that will change the pattern and allow the season to start IF the change actually happens and IF anything is around to develop.

At least the euro is showing some signs of life

If we could ever have a reasonably favorable MDR the lower right would be very interesting

GFS has a TS and cane after that, maybe it will get more active Less active. Looking at another 0/0 aug. In close development not possible with a mega trof.

JB agrees The American Storm @BigJoeBastardi · 35m First wave and threat to the US looks to be about 10 days off. at 500 mb pattern the period Aug 20-30 looks to be very close to analogs of major hits from 2003-2022. Painstakingly went over every map to come up for analog Euro has enhanced eastern threat day 11-18

The Ukmet forcast issued today. Since there are no modeled hurricanes up to aug 17 i suppose sept is going to be one hellova month. TWC 10/5 CSU 9/4 UKMET9/6 215 ace? I think 65 will be closer to reality. JB is continuing to backtrack while others go wild with super active forecasts. Issued 01 August 2023 All values given below represent observed activity for the 6-month period from February to July 2023 plus the 6-month GloSea6 forecast activity from August 2023 to January 2024. Note, the official tropical storm season, which usually includes most activity, is from June-November. The most likely number of named tropical storms (winds of at least 39 mph) predicted to occur in the North Atlantic is 19, with a 70% chance that the number will be in the range 14 to 24. The 1991-2020 long-term average is 14. The most likely number of hurricanes (winds of at least 74 mph) predicted to occur in the North Atlantic is 9, with a 70% chance that the number will be in the range 6 to 12. The 1991-2020 long-term average is 7. The most likely number of major hurricanes (winds of at least 111 mph) predicted to occur in the North Atlantic is 6, with a 70% chance that the number will be in the range 3 to 9. The 1991-2020 long-term average is 3.  An ACE index of 215 is predicted as the most likely value, with a 70% chance that the index will be in the range 120 to 310. The 1991-2020 average is 123.

This is why the ATL tropics will have a really hard time getting started. Once again we have a low of non tropical origin from a front off the east coast move east across the atlantic. It will kill any chance of the season geting started as anything to its south in the MDR has no chance. Looks like the lights have gone out on the NW ATL. JB backtracking as things are deader than dead. SST's are the least important factor. The American Storm @BigJoeBastardi Until the WPAC calms down, the Atlantic is not likely to rev up. Slow moving major typhoon weakens in a few days as it turns away from China but may still be on the charts 10 days from now 6:14 PM · Jul 31, 2023 · 2,220 Views

Frontal low. Why waste a name for a low on a front? Looks like JB nailed it again. The west atl is lighting up. It forms from a non tropical low east of bermuda.

High pressure in the Candian maritimes would be what we need to get anything past 70w or for inclose development.