LibertyBell

Maybe a 70 in there somewhere if we can get Jan 2007 style warmth.

I can see why I forgot that winter lol. We only got 1.5 inches in the October storm (still historic). I dont even remember the January event. Nothing in March? In quite a few of these extremely mild winter months we've had a renegade 1-3 inch event or two (I remember one in January 2006 that dumped 3 inches). Also, another mild winter, 2007-08, had a renegade SWFE that dropped 6-8 inches here around Feb 22, a positive bust which somewhat made up for the negative bust of the notorious "Heavy Snow Warning" fail in Jan 2008.

the ones that only had a period rather than a pattern flip were 1989-90 1997-98 2001-02 2011-12 The totals in those years speak for themselves, ugh. 2006-07 could have been a lot better for us, that was some pattern flip to cold and lasted a long time. The first three weeks of April were colder than the first three weeks of January lol it hit 70 in early January (on the 11 year anniversary of the Jan 1996 blizzard if I remember right) and didn't hit 70 again until the last week of April.

Didn't we have a somewhat active winter at the end of the 2011-12 winter too? Was that just relegated to late March? So bad after Snowtober until March? And in 1997-98 we only had the one storm in late March, but that was an extreme El Nino, which in our new extreme climate seems to be how the Pacific is behaving right now.

Might as well set a record- what are the model predictions for that period?

NYC is the new Seattle.

Yes I am looking at years like 2005-06 where we had a large window in February and March and only really scored once- in the big blizzard. In 2006-07, we also had an extended period of cold (that lasted from February through April) but had mostly ice and sleet events. In 2015-16 the mild period ended with a big bang with Jonas on Jan 20 and the below zero morning on V-Day. We also had the snow event where the crane fell in NYC (heavy snow out on the Island.)

Chris, from a historical analog perspective, dont stable patterns like this last for about 6-8 weeks? Let's look at similar patterns from the past: 1989-90 2005-06 2006-07 There are others I cant remember at the moment. 2005-06 was similar to this winter in that we started December cold and on the snowy side; the change to warmer occurred around Dec 10-15. January was toasty and we didn't get back to cold again until the second week of February. So that was about 60 days of mild weather? 2006-07 had about 7 weeks of mild weather, from about the middle of December to the middle of February. 1989-90 was the most extreme case, where we went from a cold December to a warm January, February and March. So about 90 days of mild weather. We ended up getting a light snow event in early April which ended the pattern. But wasn't that also around a solar maximum? And we're near a minimum now, so I favor the first two options. Our mild period started around Dec 22 (the first day of winter, ironically enough) so I predict it should end by Feb 20.... thoughts? edit- how can I forget 2015-16?! Record warm December and the pattern flipped around January 15 or so and we had a historic snowstorm after that around the 20th. So that was a 45 day period of mildness.

I see the effects are different in different places- here on the east coast we've seen a rapid rise in relative humidity and annual precip totals. Longer allergy seasons and higher insect populations (and the bad kind of insects like mosquitoes.) And the changes to the ocean are also destroying the fragile marine ecosystem, this is having massive consequences which will only get worse.

It's interesting how the changes in the Pacific are causing all these changes all over the globe. They have a multiyear drought going on in Australia, very similar to what's been happening in the SW.

I'm sensing that most scientists feel that the error was on the conservative side too. I've noticed the predictions of sea level rise have gotten higher and we're already seeing sunny side flooding on a regular basis in Florida and South Carolina and even on the south shore of Long Island. Aren't there parts of the Florida Keys that have been underwater for 3 months now?

yeah all these clouds went to waste, and this yucky high humidity.

the blue skies are beautiful, but that landscape is too barren. Give me 2-3 inches of precip every month and not all these horribly cloudy, dismal, dank days, and I'm happy.

it seems that warmer weather is much easier to forecast than colder weather in general (particularly when it comes to cold+snowy weather.)

I was shocked because some are already comparing this to December 2015. At least that one occurred earlier and we made somewhat of a comeback in late January and February. I saw the pollen report and weeds were reported to be "high"- wondered what kind of weeds come out in January lol. The shortest non growing season I've ever had was 2001-02, when I had roses blooming in late December and the first crocuses came out in late February. The next winter made up for that of course, actually the next four did.

the same weather pattern looks like it will continue... also the number of people missing is now at 28. the 8,000 koalas reported to be dead is one third of the koala population, that's worse than decimation!

They have a very conservative government. Do you think whats going on there is also influencing our weather (note the record warm 90 degree SST just north of Australia.)

1989-90! and we were wearing shorts and t-shirts from January thru March!

It's unusual in that usually December is the mildest month of the winter. Especially in an el nino. Could it actually be January this time? Sounds a bit like 1989-90 minus the extreme cold in December.

too dry for me lol. I was in the Poconos for the holidays and even there I was sneezing nonstop. So it isn't a regional thing; I was shocked that I was having allergies in the middle of winter at 2,000 ft asl.

Yes the climate was very different back then, most of Australia wasn't burning.

we've lately seen stagnant patterns develop across both oceans, the ridiculously resilient pacific ridge has become the ridiculously resilient atlantic ridge!

I'm not complaining about the lack of snow as much as all the damn rain we've been having, it's kicking up my allergies already. I want snow or dry sunny weather, nothing else. I wouldn't mind no rain for like 3 months lol.

but then Orion would be missing a shoulder :-(

Yes but Staten Island and Brooklyn had similar totals to Manhattan and most of Long Island.