LibertyBell

Which of these was the most historic event- October 2011, April 1982 or May 1977? I guess it depends on the location.....

We may never see a winter storm warning in NYC again in October lol.....then again back in Jan 2015 Upton had a projected snowfall map with 30" of snow right over NYC and that was a big fail and we said we'd never see that again either and one short year later, in Jan 2016, the 30" maps were back and this time they verified (at JFK)

Ray if I remember correctly, it was 1.5" at JFK where I was at that time. 3" at Central Park and around 6" in the Bronx. Double digits were as close by as Bridgeport with ruined Halloween.....

lol had that same slop on the south shore of Long Island. I'm in the Poconos for this one at around 2,000 ft

I was surprised to see 1.5" inches of snow with that all the way to the south shore of Western Long Island. Might not see anything like that again in our lifetimes....then again who knows?

what about 2011 as an analog? Looks like this storm might produce snow in the northeast too, first here in October since 2011....

wow I thought 1933-34 was one of the most extremely cold winters here in NY, looks like most of the rest of the country west of here wasn't cold at all.

Uncle has any place around the city had 30" snow depth? I think it might have been Newark in 1994 after 2 storms and JFK in 2016 because we recorded over 30" from one storm?

I see the AGW crowd coming out on Twitter lol.

wild, I had completely forgotten about that! Chris, I remember you came up with a logical reason why a snow event in late October or November might result in winters with low snowfall in some years? It was because the atmosphere in our region takes awhile to recover before a notable wintry event can happen again, especially in the early part of the season? So this sometimes means a lackluster December, which can get winter off on the wrong foot, and then you have a long period of time before the first true winter event occurs- this happened in 11-12 as well as 12-13. And a couple of years ago too, when we had that surprise mid November storm. We had long snowless periods following all three of those very early storms. And especially in la nina like patterns a bad December doesn't bode well for a snowy winter.....

and colder

I wonder what the snow profile with that storm would have been had it happened in Jan-Feb. Was the cutoff strictly because of how early in the season it was? I remember we had one and a half inches on the western part of the south shore of Nassau County and expected more but the snow ended in the middle of the afternoon. Still historic here, I'd only seen non-sticking flurries in October before with temps around 34-35 lol.

10/29 is listed as the latest date a storm of hurricane intensity impacted the northeast (Sandy in NJ in 2012 and Ginny in Maine in 1963). Do you know of any TS that may have impacted us later than that? I remember there was one called Gordon that brought rains into the area in November but I dont remember what date or what year (except that it was sometime during the 90s.)

and then we had a really heavy wet snowstorm a week after Sandy! Our earliest 6 inch event ever at the coast!

wow look at those totals from the Poconos! I think the furthest east and south the snow made it to was Central NJ?

wow Central Park didn't reach freezing in October 2011 despite getting three inches of snow?! I dont think LGA got any in that storm?

dont forget planes- that must also be added to this list as many are located near large bodies of water and there are lots of negative interactions betweens planes and birds. wasnt an energy company in California found guilty of negligence and implicated in the forest fires there a few years ago? btw you mentioned pesticides, did you read the story about thousands of barrels of DDT leaking into the Pacific found just offshore from LA? Well as you probably know, single-use plastic is on the way out because of the litter it causes especially in landfills and the ocean. We can now use plant-based plastics that were recently developed and which are biodegradable.

Chris, this might be a repeating pattern this winter lol (rain ending as snow) What are the accumulations looking like? I assume it would only be in the mtns and even there only around 1-3"? I dont get that 2" on Central Long Island, you dont buy that do you?

Did you read about how computerized wind turbines can actually use motion detection and radars to stop birds from dying by temporarily and selectively turning some off as birds approach? And I would rather them be located offshore like we are doing in NY/NJ.

October freezes have been few and far between for the urban areas (which includes Western Long Island) Was October 2011 our last one?

How does this compare to Oct 2011? That had 3 inches in NYC 1.5 at JFK and 6 inches as close as the Bronx. This sounds more like a T for everyone outside of the far N/W where it could be 1-3"?

Yeah if winter is over (it didn't even start yet!) it would be because of the major la nina we might have oncoming, and this event may just be a product of that rather than the cause of whatever winter we have. So rather than being the cause of a bad winter, it would just be a by product of the ENSO signal, along with other factors, just like a lousy winter would also be a product of those same factors.

Yeah that's another issue, which is why it's better to analyze similar patterns rather than similar outcomes. In other words, if there was a similar pattern in place in some other years than that should give us a better idea rather than just looking for similar outcomes, regardless of the pattern in place.

that aint happening like that

well it was either gonna be a October 2011 redux or a October 2012 redux....and the latter was far more destructive.