LibertyBell

Wow that's quite a gaping hole right in the middle! 30-36" would be eminently doable even with just one huge storm and a handful of minor 1-3" events. A backloaded winter could do that. That would probably be the ceiling for what's likely and I'd put that in second place. Perhaps more likely would be a snowfall total in the teens with no major (12+) totals and perhaps one 6" storm- that would be most likely. Getting something along the lines of 2001-02 or 2011-12 would be less likely, but still a distinct possibility. I'd put that in third place.

oh, I mentioned that in my prior post. It was worse for us on Long Island, we only got around 2 feet of the snow because the big totals with the Feb storm happened to our west. My instincts tell me we're likely in for somewhere between the 20"-30" range you mentioned as the most likely possibility, though there's a chance for breaking 30" if we get that one big storm.

2010-11 is such a massive outlier and I suspect that's because it came after a big el nino (2009-10). What was the other case with 40" or more, Don?

I see either that happening or a winter that's mostly like that but with one big snowfall somewhere in the middle (likely February.) But that usually happens in a strong el nino, which we dont have (an exception is 05-06). There's also a possibility of the elusive backloaded winter that gets us to around average snowfall to maybe slightly above average (around 30").

You probably saw Orion, it was high up in the Southern sky around 3 am.

I saw the same thing after the cold shot in late Sept over in the Poconos. The leaves became vivid after the temps went down into the 30s there!

Full moon is tonight! On the 13th! But not Friday the 13th lol.

Don, when both October and November are above normal temps, the following winters are mild and snowless most of the time, right?

Most of the normal to above normal snowfall winters were one trick ponies, like 1982-83 and 2015-16 (although that latter one trick was my only 30" snowstorm!)

NYC hit 80 on Nov 15, 1993

Only great winters in that list followed 1933 and 2002

Not in 1993?

Chances for some late October tropical activity on the east coast?

I guess you could fish from your porch if you wanted to. Riverside Ave- what an appropriate name lol. Maybe change it to Seaside Ave!

Looks like the February Blizzard of 1978, except much warmer ;-)

Yes, I only remember that happening in November 1993, when we shockingly hit it on the 15th, the latest such occurrence- and a day after the marathon! Imagine if it had happened during the marathon! Funny thing is we had a killing freeze earlier in the month, in the first few days of November, so Mid-November was a true Indian Summer! The reason I asked is the last few years, the last 80 degree high has been pushed back to the middle of October (10-19), while the seasonal average was the latter part of September.

btw the fossil fuel industry being this corrupt is no secret nor is it a surprise- the pharma industry (opioids), chemical industry (pesticides) and food industry (additives) are just as corrupt. And not coincidentally, all are being sued by various states.

https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/world-was-just-issued-12-year-ultimatum-climate-change-180970489/ https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/meet-the-money-behind-the-climate-denial-movement-180948204/ According to Brulle's research, the 91 think tanks and advocacy organizations and trade associations that make up the American climate denial industry pull down just shy of a billion dollars each year, money used to lobby or sway public opinion on climate change and other issues. “The anti-climate effort has been largely underwritten by conservative billionaires,” says the Guardian, “often working through secretive funding networks. They have displaced corporations as the prime supporters of 91 think tanks, advocacy groups and industry associations which have worked to block action on climate change.” This is exactly why we need to sue the heck out of billionaires, the only language they understand is money and the only way to castrate their power is to take away the one thing they love. That's where the 10-12 year figure comes from- from IPCC itself. And it was underreported in the media..... unless you consume PBS and NPR of course. The money of corrupt corporations behind the oligarchical movement of denial is instrumental also of course. But evidence in the new report, in which a team of 91 scientists from 40 countries analyzed over 6,000 scientific studies, shows that the future is bleaker than once thought. A 2-degree-Celsius rise in temperatures would spell widespread disaster. Even if the world manages to shave off that extra 0.5 degrees, we’ll still be well on our way to flooded coastlines, intensified droughts and debilitated industries. A seemingly small 1.5-degree-Celsius bump in temperature would also alter weather worldwide, wreaking havoc on agriculture and natural ecosystems, and cost about $54 trillion in damages, according to the report. Because agriculture is the leading source of income in already poor countries, it’s likely that a crippling wave of poverty would ensue. To make matters worse, the world is already clocking in at 1-degree-Celsius warmer than preindustrial levels, which means we’re more than halfway there. At the rate we’re going, global temperatures are set to hit the mark by 2040—unless a lot changes, and fast. “Limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius is possible within the laws of chemistry and physics," energy policy expert Jim Skea of Imperial College London, one of the authors of the report, explains to Christopher Joyce at NPR. “But doing so would require unprecedented changes.” Among them would be a 40 to 50 percent reduction in emissions by 2030—a mere 12 years from now—and a completely carbon-neutral world by 2050. Usage of coal as an electricity source would also have to take a significant plunge to make room for renewable energy, such as wind and solar, Davenport reports. Climate scientists warn that these goals probably won’t be met without some serious new technological firepower designed to suck greenhouse gases back out of the air. Considering that such techniques could save us even in the event that we overshoot the 1.5-degree-Celsius mark, this route sounds pretty appealing. There’s just one problem: We still have to invent and conventionalize some of these tools before we can actually put them into use, Joyce reports. Currently, a few experimental methods exist that can snatch carbon dioxide directly out of the air, but at up to $1,000 per ton of carbon dioxide, the price tag of such carbon capture is staggering—and billions of tons await extraction. “The best way to remove carbon dioxide from the air,” explains MIT engineer Howard Herzog in his book Carbon Capture, is “to not release it into the air in the first place,” Joyce reports. But the hurdles to clear aren’t just technological. As Davenport reports, the new study’s authors have already conceded that dampening the rise in temperature is probably “politically unlikely.” President Donald Trump announced intent to withdraw from the United States from the Paris agreement in 2017; it is now the only country publically opposing the accord. A recent U.S. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration report estimated that maintaining the administration’s current course will yield a 4-degree Celsius (7-degree Fahrenheit) rise in temperature for the planet as a whole by the end of the current century. The report explicitly acknowledges the human impact on climate, but instead uses the data to justify continued non-action. In other words, the administration is arguing that our “fate is already sealed,” reports The Washington Post. Hitting the 1.5-degree-Celsius goal won’t be easy. But saving a mere half-degree could make a huge difference in some parts of the world. For instance, it could pull corals back from the brink of complete eradication—an inevitable fate with a 2-degree-Celsius rise—and ease the severity of climate-related poverty, food shortages and water stress, Watts at The Guardian reports. And with scientists and government officials raising global alarm bells, perhaps there is hope that we can yet forestall the devastation. “We have a monumental task in front of us, but it’s not impossible,” study co-author and climate scientist Natalie Mahowald of Cornell University tells Joyce at NPR. “This is our chance to decide what [the next 50 years] will look like.”

I think Feb 2013 was Nemo. That was the one that dropped 40" of snow in Central Suffolk County at Medford. Jan 2015 must have been Juno, that one dropped 2 feet of snow on Islip and 30" on Orient. Jan 2016 "Jonas" brought us the goods, with 31" of snow at JFK and 35" at Jackson Heights. The month before that, Dec 2015, was the warmest winter month on record, an amazing more than 10 degrees above normal!

Wow I dont remember the big temp drop in April 2003- all I remember is the big snowstorm we got a week prior to that on the 7th!

I remember that storm in Jan 2015 when it was predicting we'd get 30+ inches of snow and Upton put out those enormous snowfall total forecasts lol. Fortunately, we got our big one the year after, so all was forgiven.

Just imagine this happening during a snow storm. Lots of virga and subsidence!

Don do you think we could hit 80 degrees again sometime this month or even in early November?

FWIW we've found a planet that has water vapor in its atmosphere about 100 LY away, it's a super earth 8 times more massive than our planet but in its star's habitable zone. Next stage is to look for oxygen in the atmosphere, which would be an indicator of life being present, since (as far as we know) for oxygen to remain in an atmosphere, life must be present.

Want to read the kind of things that can happen to a society that is governed by fear? Read this classic short story- Nightfall http://www.astro.sunysb.edu/fwalter/AST389/TEXTS/Nightfall.htm That was later extended to novel-length, but I have always found the short story version to be most poignant: and here is another one that has a shocking ending about how our universe ends (and begins?) The Last Question: https://www.multivax.com/last_question.html It's amazing these were written so long ago and yet are so timely. And for those who wonder if our universe (and other possible universes) are the product of intelligent design, just look at all the places the number 137 seems to show up. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/137_(number)