LibertyBell

It's been stated by a few experts that the winds projected near the center of these systems are hardly ever experienced on land. The usual difference between what's projected and what's actually experienced is about 15% (on average). That also happens to be the average difference between sustained winds and gusts. Looking around, the highest sustained winds experienced on land happen to be around 45 mph. That's close enough to the 15% figure. Also, please recall that the 60 mph sustained winds were projected while the center was still over water- about 25-30 miles offshore. It's actual landfall intensity was 50 mph. So I dont believe there was much of a discrepancy here.

If you noticed the rainfall and wind patterns with Sandy, there were some similarities with Fay (on a much smaller scale.) Like you said, because of its much smaller size, there wasn't a surge component, but we knew that wasn't going to happen from the beginning. As far as rainfall and wind, the similar tracks the two shared (going into Atlantic City) placed the heaviest rainfall in Delaware in both cases and in both cases the effects were strongest from Nassau County westward. Fay produced about half the rainfall and half the winds that Sandy had (which means in reality it was only 1/4 as strong, and that's before accounting for its much smaller size.) Neither Sandy nor Fay produced as much tropical storm effects from Suffolk County northeastward. I've always maintained that Suffolk County has much more of a New England climate (this holds true both in the winter and summer) and the storms that are most likely to affect them also affect Boston. The storms that affect NYC and Nassau County the strongest belong to a different class altogether- the Midatlantic group- which also affect Delaware and New Jersey. During the 2010s and apparently going right into 2020 we've seen much more of the latter variety. There are many other examples of this (again during both the summer and winter)- Sandy, the Millenium storm you referenced and of course the Snowicane in late February 2010 come to mind immediately. Irene was also part of this pattern and I recall you were in Long Beach for that one. That would have been a better place to be with this one also. I expect this pattern to continue into the future with the much warmer sea surface temps we now have. Now looking forward to hitting 100 degrees later next week in this eventful and perhaps historic summer we have oncoming!

You think this is bad? You should see what they say to climate scientists on Twitter....it's utterly embarrassing (for them).

LOL see my post just above (well there's one in between.) Things like the above stick in my mind and from memory I can recall that at landfall the max gusts reported often match up with the projected sustained winds at landfall. So there's no reason for anyone to be "suspicious" of the 60 mph sustained wind report, the two reports of 57 mph gusts on the Jersey shore back that up. Back to current conditions, out here in the Poconos we have a flash flood warning extended to 1:30 AM DOT has shut down major roads and is warning people not to go outside. Rain is still falling pretty hard here, might get 3-4" at this rate by the time it's done.

Typically you'll find max gusts matching the projected sustained winds of landfalling systems. There were a couple of reports of 57 mph gusts along the Jersey shore, one in southern Monmouth county and another one in Southern NJ near Cape May. That's close enough to the 60 mph projected sustained winds.

what was the main reason no one up here saw the 6"-7" deluge they had down in Delaware and near Ocean City, MD?

lol no. I appreciated seeing your post when I woke up, but I went to sleep around 1 am and at that time it was really quiet in here. I figured if no one was awake for the GFS no one would be awake for the Euro either.

I was disappointed that no one was awake at midnight or later last night to post the GFS and Euro. That will be happening before we know it lol.

we had a break for about 30 min and now it's pouring here again

and 45 mph highest gust at JFK? Also, I dont know if this is something you have access to but do you have any idea what the rainfall amt was that JFK recorded in Bertha in July 1996 as well as the highest wind gusts? I recall Babylon had gusts over 70 mph to just above hurricane force, but I dont remember what the rest of the area had.

Maybe you'll see a rainbow.

You should have been in Long Beach for this one! I didn't mind being just north of Allentown for this one, it was pretty exciting with all the heavy rain today and even a nice dose of wind. I've learned through the years it's way better being a bit to the west of a storm, rather than being too far to the east ;-)

Heaviest rain of the storm occurred here around 5 PM when it looked and felt like a monsoon, swaying trees too! Over 2"

heaviest rains of the storm occurring here now, looks like a monsoon out there, up and over 2" so far.

much appreciated Tony! Can you add ABE (Allentown) to this list as well as MPO (Mt Pocono)? There's a flood warning out here now with 1.50" rain already fallen.

Actually we've been getting on and off thunderstorms in the Poconos with a consistent heavy rain since about noon. This is a different experience from what I've seen in tropical storms on Long Island though.

Just heard two rolling rumbles of thunder, kind of reminds me of the kind of thunder you sometimes hear in snowstorms lol.

Looking at the structure of the storm, the least "exciting" weather seems to be near the center as both the strongest winds and heaviest rainfall are well away from the center of circulation.

It's raining pretty hard up here now too, about 0.5" here so far got lots of ponding in my driveway.

I'm in the Poconos for this one and it's pretty gusty here, my trees are swaying back and forth, gusts are probably around 25 mph here right now.

Is this the strongest storm of the season so far? I dont recall any of the other 5 being stronger than 60 mph?

and probably a lot more waterspouts, like Florida. 2020 is a window into the future in many ways.

will probably make landfall between Cape May and Atlantic City. Highest wind gusts so far seem to be in that region- one report of a 57 mph gust already!

Yeah and if something like this happens next month I could see it becoming at least as strong as Irene was when it came ashore here- maybe stronger. I edited my post to make a comment about it being extratrop, it probably is, but it's smart for them not to state that so people stay on guard, remember all the controversy over Sandy. You cant take this storm lightly. We're under a flash flood watch here and this issue is likely going to affect areas well inland. The expanding wind field is also going to be an issue. A lot of inland areas have seen multiple days of flooding rain over the past week and the soil is still wet and under these conditions it doesn't take a lot of wind to bring down trees- a 30 mph gust can do it. I've seen it happen before.

The problem is my garden has become an obstacle course, I can't walk more than two feet out my door without either getting stung by something, bitten by something else, or caught in a web. I was waiting for all the birds that come to my yard to eat them but they seem to be more interested in the berries or drinking the water from my pond lol. This season has really seen a bug proliferation and a lot of them have also been coming inside my house and I'm trying to figure out how they're getting inside too.