LibertyBell

and colder

I wonder what the snow profile with that storm would have been had it happened in Jan-Feb. Was the cutoff strictly because of how early in the season it was? I remember we had one and a half inches on the western part of the south shore of Nassau County and expected more but the snow ended in the middle of the afternoon. Still historic here, I'd only seen non-sticking flurries in October before with temps around 34-35 lol.

10/29 is listed as the latest date a storm of hurricane intensity impacted the northeast (Sandy in NJ in 2012 and Ginny in Maine in 1963). Do you know of any TS that may have impacted us later than that? I remember there was one called Gordon that brought rains into the area in November but I dont remember what date or what year (except that it was sometime during the 90s.)

and then we had a really heavy wet snowstorm a week after Sandy! Our earliest 6 inch event ever at the coast!

wow look at those totals from the Poconos! I think the furthest east and south the snow made it to was Central NJ?

wow Central Park didn't reach freezing in October 2011 despite getting three inches of snow?! I dont think LGA got any in that storm?

dont forget planes- that must also be added to this list as many are located near large bodies of water and there are lots of negative interactions betweens planes and birds. wasnt an energy company in California found guilty of negligence and implicated in the forest fires there a few years ago? btw you mentioned pesticides, did you read the story about thousands of barrels of DDT leaking into the Pacific found just offshore from LA? Well as you probably know, single-use plastic is on the way out because of the litter it causes especially in landfills and the ocean. We can now use plant-based plastics that were recently developed and which are biodegradable.

Chris, this might be a repeating pattern this winter lol (rain ending as snow) What are the accumulations looking like? I assume it would only be in the mtns and even there only around 1-3"? I dont get that 2" on Central Long Island, you dont buy that do you?

Did you read about how computerized wind turbines can actually use motion detection and radars to stop birds from dying by temporarily and selectively turning some off as birds approach? And I would rather them be located offshore like we are doing in NY/NJ.

October freezes have been few and far between for the urban areas (which includes Western Long Island) Was October 2011 our last one?

How does this compare to Oct 2011? That had 3 inches in NYC 1.5 at JFK and 6 inches as close as the Bronx. This sounds more like a T for everyone outside of the far N/W where it could be 1-3"?

Yeah if winter is over (it didn't even start yet!) it would be because of the major la nina we might have oncoming, and this event may just be a product of that rather than the cause of whatever winter we have. So rather than being the cause of a bad winter, it would just be a by product of the ENSO signal, along with other factors, just like a lousy winter would also be a product of those same factors.

Yeah that's another issue, which is why it's better to analyze similar patterns rather than similar outcomes. In other words, if there was a similar pattern in place in some other years than that should give us a better idea rather than just looking for similar outcomes, regardless of the pattern in place.

that aint happening like that

well it was either gonna be a October 2011 redux or a October 2012 redux....and the latter was far more destructive.

what happens if you constrain the data to only include modern winters (1950 onwards)?

this is not where sample size matters I think, more important is the pattern and if that pattern means something later on. We had a strong correlation between cold Octobers mild Novembers and a snowy winter for a long time before the pattern changed during the mid 90s. Rather than just looking at numbers it's way more important to look at patterns and what they might mean going forward.

believe it or not I think we need to shrink the sample size....let's do 1950 onwards. The climate was radically different back in the early 1900s let alone late 1800s lol

What do you guys think of this? https://www.digitaltrends.com/features/solar-radiation-management-geoengineering/ In the article it says this is relatively "cheap" and would only cost a "few" hundred million dollars (compare that to the 1 trillion dollar NYC is spending on that sea wall and beach sand buildup project.)

One of those rare cases where we're rooting for a stronger SE Ridge ;-)

Yeah the famous thundersnow event that only dropped a T in NYC and Long Island but over a foot just north of us?

I cant remember the last time before May 2020 that we had a T of snow in May. And if we do get a T of snow in October, that'll be the first time since 2011 I think? 2014-15 feels like an underrated winter, because that was excellent for both snow and cold in the second half. March 2018 was a lot better at ISP than it was in NYC (and western Nassau for that matter). Wow, ISP had 16" of snow in the April 1982 blizzard- or was that a combo of two storms? If it was just from the blizzard, they doubled our totals on Western Long Island- I wonder why? Everyone was cold enough for a lot of snow.

Looks like the Poconos are a good place to be if you want to see 1-2 inches of snow ;-)

Walt, it seems that NYC and Long Island are part of the cone? But this will be a remnant and not a tropical system once it gets up here right? They have 40 mph sustained winds (which would imply a TS) all the way to the east coast, but I suspect it'll already be absorbed by the mid-latitude system once it gets here?

In states like Texas, more people are now employed by the renewable industry than are employed by the fossil fuel cartels. And why not? The green energy jobs pay more, they are the fastest growing segment of the job market and they dont pollute the environment or people's health. What's not to love?