LibertyBell

There's strong evidence that these "looks" dont really apply....they broadbrush patterns. If you look at the top 10 winters of all time, you'll see them range all across the board. And if you look at the bottom 10 winters, they also range all across the board LOL. Also, it wont be the second half of February, if anything it'll just be the last 9 days of the month, a 28 day month, which means just the last third of the month. These ENSO fundamentalists annoy me, they're almost as irrational as religious fundamentalists.

I'm surprised too, I think NYC went over 40" in both years....JFK also went over 40" in 2015-16

that all time record was just before the historic blizzard wasn't it? The one which caused measurable snow in New Orleans and Tampa and 34" at Cape May?

I'd say 70% odds we get to 40" even with this "milder" outcome just because of the frequency of storms and they dont need to be all or even mostly snow to get us there. 93-94 was like this way which is what most people forget. Only two storms that entire winter were all snow. It was the frequency of storms that got NYC to 50"+ also only one storm that winter had double digit snowfall.

it'll probably hit 40 inches this season for NYC even if we have a lot of snow to mix scenarios.....we'll pick up a 2 inch storm here and a 2 inch storm there and that will be enough to get us to 40 inches and that's even if we get nothing in March.

we're above average snowfall....could still hit 40" in the city.

Yes, I'm already going in with the assumption that we've probably already seen the largest storm of the season. I'd put that at 90%...anything from here on out is gravy since we're already at or above average snowfall for the season. We've had three storms of over 6" of snowfall, that's more than we expected to begin with.

looks like we've probably had our biggest snowstorm of the season already. it's going to be extremely difficult to top the early February event

by the way some are mistakenly thinking the 10% reduction in fossil fuels is actually causing the abnormal cold we are seeing this month LOL I'm sure many in Texas will be thinking that when Dallas goes below zero next week.

the idea of increasing air pollution isn't one that I find particularly exciting lol....also what do aerosols do to the ozone layer?

I have news for you, corporatism is just as bad as communism ever was.

the latest EC was very snowy, Walt? Weird that it was so quiet on here with no one posting about it

1996 was an underrated cold winter....people keep talking about how mild it was after the blizzard but they forget how extreme the cold got in many parts of the country in February. Minnesota had their all time state record of -60 in Feb 1996. Impressive come back winter after what happened in January.

and the airports Don? 2.0 at JFK?

walt, did south NJ get over 6" with this?

right between 2-3 is what I measured too. looks like southern NJ got over 6" what were the max totals with this event?

you were in the middle of the 30"+ totals in that one weren't you Ed? I remember a 38" total from somewhere on Long Island

wow thats an amazing snow depth at JFK, they must've been the snow capital of Long Island back then looks like it melted pretty quickly too lol

Don any ideas why extreme outbreaks directly hitting us has become so rare? I remember an old weather book showing a direct discharge of arctic air from eastern Canada was not extraordinary rare in the 80s and prior but has become much more rare now? Is warming (which affected the oceans first, as they are natural heat sinks) changing the pathways of air currents such that they are more likely to affect the center of the continent now?

what about below zero there, Don? thats a strong possibility

Dallas has a strong chance to get below zero, when was the last time that happened?

oh the Lindsey storm was from my previous post, not the one you quoted....Jan 2016 was only 5 years ago lol. That was 30" in 24 hours. Lindsey storm was Feb 1969. When you mentioned memorable storms that dont last that long, you reminded me of Jan 2018 I think it was where we had a white out that entire day, the storm lasted less than 12 hours but dropped 10" or so. True blizzard conditions for 6 hours. Jan 2016 had true blizzard conditions for 12 hours here, but Jan 2018 was more photogenic in some ways because the entire day was a white out.

yep that was VD 2016, what a weird winter that was....historic warmth in December to the record snowstorm for NYC and over 30" here in January, and below zero at NYC on Valentine's Day

that doesnt make sense though....recheck Jan 1994 when we had historic arctic shots, I distinctly remember my thermometer recorded -3 and I was only 4 miles SE of JFK, so either their equipment malfunctioned or they did record below zero temps in Jan 1994. I lived near JFK in both Jan 1985 and Jan 1994 and I can tell you for a fact that it was below zero in both outbreaks.

Not for the south shore of Long Island....here the Jan 2016 takes the cake with over 30" of snow in a wide swath (at both my locations!) There's a list of Christmas storms (actually that one is called the Boxing Day storm since that happened the day after Christmas) on a previous page....the notable one is from the 66-67 winter, which was a great winter by all accounts and very long. The king of all Boxing Day storms happened in December 1947 and happened to be the greatest snowstorm (and winter) until 1995-96 came along.