LibertyBell

absolutely, for December at least regardless of anything else forecasting above average December temperatures will get it right 90% of the time. Here's a bigger challenge....can we change how we do analog forecasting to make it more fruitful? How about we select analogs based on snowfall patterns, not monthly average temps. It's easy to forecast above normal average temps nowadays, but there is a disconnect between that and what most winter weather fans care about which is snowfall. Is there any way to do winter analogs independent of average monthly temperatures and strictly based on snowfall? It seems random at first glance, but there are definitely some patterns to be had, like the one which you mentioned where >3" of December snowfall (regardless of monthly avg temp) results in an above avg snowfall season. It might be worthwhile to come up with analogs based on snowfall patterns going forward as opposed to temps.....what do you think, Chris?

also people around here really don't care about cold, they care about snow, regardless of average monthly temps...so based on that we should do analog forecasting based on snowfall patterns not average temps. 1976-77 was a mediocre winter for snowfall. Wouldn't want to ever see that kind of winter ever again

you're forgetting 2010-11 which I also referenced earlier which is exactly why enso only controls 20% of our weather. 2010-11 was a strong la nina and we got how much cold and snow that winter? 5 FEET! Atlantic side blocking is way more important than anything else. Analogs like 1916-17 worked out well for 2010-11.

fyi this means rolling this pattern forward we may have an entirely different one come February and March if not January. Do you remember the old axiom that's proven true time and again (with 06-07 being a great example) that even the most stable of patterns can only last for a total of 8 weeks at most? The great Chuck called that huge turnaround that winter.

Yall need to quit being obsessed with ninas and ninos, remember they only cover 20% of the weather here. It's not like we're on the west coast.

yep no snow days and no double digit snowstorms between those years

how disappointing, I figured the warmth of the airmass would overcome the coolness of the ocean since the ocean isn't very cool this year.

Don what was the high at JFK? I don't see it listed here, thanks!

there were way less snowstorms back then....think about how few double digit snowstorms we had.....two in 1978 and that was it for the 70s and two in the 80s and that was it for that decade.

you need shorter wavelengths like we get in March, which is when you can have troughs on both coasts. you can still get moderate sized snowstorms in a -PNA here by then Speaking of which does anyone (Don, Uncle?) have a list of the largest snowstorms we've had in the most extreme -PNA and which month they happened in? That would be very useful.

the plastics are inside us too-- microplastics have been found in our urine and blood and there's mounting evidence that they are toxic. Logically we always knew they would be, it just took some time for the evidence to come in. Also pesticides like chlorpyrifos, which damages brains of children. It's banned in NY, CA, HI but not in other states yet.

not humans-- the mass extinction is of almost every non-domesticated species on the planet, half the species that exist now will be extinct by 2100, including pollinators, our usage of pesticides and fertilizers, etc. The Monarch Butterfly is about to go on the endangered list

why can't we get that kind of heat here? we don't even have any blocking

yeah this is sickening, truly sickening

at the same time it's more than just temperatures. It's the mass extinction event now underway, destroying our forests, toxic pollution, and extreme weather events like floods, tornadoes, hurricanes, etc, all on a rapid increase. We need to emphasize everything.

either way it's a new record

depends on what is meant by destinies....I believe in superdeterminism, John, all futures coexist because they've all happened already, we just haven't reached that part yet. Like a movie that has already been completed, but we are just characters in the story who have no idea it's already ended or how it ends or which of the many possible superpositioned timelines we are in.

when does the -PNA actually promote a trough on the east coast? March?

all patterns are gradient patterns, it just depends on how far north the gradient is

well someone somewhere usually gets the big snows, I dont think there has ever been a winter where the entire continent is snowless lol

I woke up sweating in the middle of the night lol

Since we were talking about quantum mechanics earlier, I figured I'd post where the cutting edge of research is right now, at the Institute of Advanced Studies in NJ. https://www.quantamagazine.org/one-labs-quest-to-build-space-time-out-of-quantum-particles-20210907/ https://www.quantamagazine.org/how-space-and-time-could-be-a-quantum-error-correcting-code-20190103/ https://www.quantamagazine.org/20130917-a-jewel-at-the-heart-of-quantum-physics/ https://www.quantamagazine.org/physicists-discover-geometry-underlying-particle-physics-20130917 https://www.quantamagazine.org/there-are-no-laws-of-physics-theres-only-the-landscape-20180604/ https://www.quantamagazine.org/quantum-entanglement-drives-the-arrow-of-time-scientists-say-20140416/ https://www.quantamagazine.org/nima-arkani-hamed-and-the-future-of-physics-20150922/ https://www.quantamagazine.org/how-our-universe-could-emerge-as-a-hologram-20190221/ Also the end of the black hole information paradox, which is unexpected to say the least https://www.quantamagazine.org/the-most-famous-paradox-in-physics-nears-its-end-20201029/ https://www.quantamagazine.org/netta-engelhardt-has-escaped-hawkings-black-hole-paradox-20210823/ https://www.quantamagazine.org/hologram-within-a-hologram-hints-at-solution-to-black-hole-information-paradox-20191119/ https://www.quantamagazine.org/one-labs-quest-to-build-space-time-out-of-quantum-particles-20210907/ https://www.quantamagazine.org/how-space-and-time-could-be-a-quantum-error-correcting-code-20190103/ https://www.quantamagazine.org/20130917-a-jewel-at-the-heart-of-quantum-physics/ https://www.quantamagazine.org/physicists-discover-geometry-underlying-particle-physics-20130917 https://www.quantamagazine.org/there-are-no-laws-of-physics-theres-only-the-landscape-20180604/ https://www.quantamagazine.org/quantum-entanglement-drives-the-arrow-of-time-scientists-say-20140416/ https://www.quantamagazine.org/nima-arkani-hamed-and-the-future-of-physics-20150922/ https://www.quantamagazine.org/how-our-universe-could-emerge-as-a-hologram-20190221/ Also the end of the black hole information paradox, which is unexpected to say the least https://www.quantamagazine.org/the-most-famous-paradox-in-physics-nears-its-end-20201029/ https://www.quantamagazine.org/netta-engelhardt-has-escaped-hawkings-black-hole-paradox-20210823/ https://www.quantamagazine.org/hologram-within-a-hologram-hints-at-solution-to-black-hole-information-paradox-20191119/

except in March when you can have a trough on both coasts. any ideas what's causing this weird -PNA extreme?

why are the Atlantic SST so warm? Is the Atlantic in its "el nino" phase?

any chance we'll get into the 70s at any point this month like we did in Dec 2015?