LibertyBell

Thats exactly my memory of it, JFK was in the lead after day one with like 9" on the first day and about 5" on the second day with much colder temps I thought we'd do much better but the second day was a disappointment. This is also the earliest I've seen temps in the teens. The first day was the best though and the surprise with that rain/snow line not making it further north coupled with the fact that the heaviest snows are usually just north of that line. February 2014 was the opposite of that, where the rain snow line made it just north of us-- I'll take a 12/03 over that every time, even with the disappointing second day of the storm, at least it was all snow.

was 12/5/03 the two day storm with the Blizzard warning and like 5 miles south of us it was raining? The second day of the storm was colder, but we underperformed because flake size was small if I remember correctly. Ended up with 13-14 inches while the middle part of the island got like 20"

when you say liquid do you mean as its falling but freezing when it hits the ground?

the good thing about VD 2007 was it stayed below freezing here throughout the event on the south shore

this does seem to be right time of year for overperformance to occur

it's also interesting that long island always seems to be a snowhole on those maps

It's unbelievable to me because I spent money getting siding put on my house and new windows with insulation and the wind is still getting in somehow. So I'm running house heat plus space heaters. At least there's no wind getting into my bedroom in spite of the fact that I have windows on three sides in there, so I keep the door closed and then it's okay. The rest of the house is freezing though, I noticed a breeze when I walked through the bathroom and downstairs by the living room and sun room.

Isn't sleet counted as snow at a 2:1 ratio?

or clippers, I've noticed clippers have become a lot drier than they were in the 80s and 90s.

I love hot DRY weather get rid of the water vapor and I love it. Also get rid of these damn winds, cant stand those either. Hot dry and snow without wind and cold is ideal.

It's not that hard to pay attention when the winds are so strong they're coming inside lol

I hate these high winds with a passion, even with the heat up at 75 I'm freezing. I'm running home heat plus space heaters and still freezing.

Somehow I remember a similar conversation to this for VD 2007 lol

I wonder what would happen if a snow squall just stalled over a location and kept dumping there? I remember such a scenario occurring sometime in the late 80s on the south shore of Nassau county in December. There were brief snowsqualls all day with partly sunny skies after an arctic front came through, really windy and slippery and treacherous driving conditions especially for the evening rush and it cleared out at night and there was a full moon. But then out of nowhere it started snowing with the full moon shining down (I couldn't see a cloud!) and it kept snowing for two hours from 10 PM to midnight. REALLY HUGE FLAKES TOO, THEY LOOKED LIKE SMALL PANCAKES COMING OUT OF THE SKY AND SMACKING INTO THE GROUND AND STICKING THERE. I watched PIX11 for the 10 oclock news back then and they showed this little scrap of white right near JFK that simply would not move! We received 2 inches of snow in 2 hours! Imagine if it was during the day it would have been heavy snow with clear skies for 2 hours!`

we just had a nice 30 min snow squall here near JFK

Yup I love these snowsqualls, we missed the first one which happened around 1:30 but got a 30 min snow squall just now that's about to end. 3:30-4

Might be getting what you want as soon as next Friday, Ray!

a best case scenario for this kind of storm is what happened in late February 2008. Look up that storm, an SWFE in a mild pattern occurred mainly at night and into the morning, a surprise 6-8 inches that didn't change over until the very end of the storm, and then it went to drizzle.

Don with the SOI being 0.00 for the first time since 2016 do you think we'll transition to an el nino for next winter?

and then back to colder and possibly snowier pattern by next weekend Chris? Looks like record cold is diving into the middle of the country for the start of March?

I haven't seen the longer range but is this first storm just supposed to be the doorway into a much colder and possibly snowier pattern? Something to look forward to in case this first one doesn't pan out. I think the March 2nd possible storm might have the highest potential.

these storms generally suck unless you're extremely cold beforehand as in the winters above

In March 2015 we did well but that was an abnormally cold winter overall. 1993-94 was another example....but again a much colder winter than this one.

there's another interesting side issue here....if we have a developing el nino for next winter doesn't that enhance the risk for a developing late season snowstorm a la April 1982 and 1997? It would have to be a big el nino to increase that risk though

no SSW but might have a March more like 2015, although not as cold?