LibertyBell

I agree with this, if I had to guess I would say that we get somewhere between 6" and 10" of snow in March.... would you tend to agree with that?

lmao 51 here and windy, was that the high?

Chris are you seriously on board with a March 2015 part 2? I thought you'd be hesitant because this winter simply hasn't been all that cold compared to 2014-15 and March had a cold lag left over from the historically cold February?

That was a seriously cold March and one of my favorites. But I have a few issues with this. One is that we were much colder in that winter overall and coming off a historically cold February and that pattern lingered into March. I don't think we would get the same results this time around because this winter has not been nearly as cold. I do think we'll have more snow but I just dont want anyone to think just because we have a similar pattern the outcome will be the same. I think, for one, it will be milder, simply because it has never been as cold this winter as it was in 2014-15 and antecedent conditions do matter.

Gotta ignore that wind, the curse of living near the ocean, it's in the low 50s here with super windy conditions

They were actually using these storm names to make conclusions that we are trending towards less winter storms than we had when they first began naming them. Produced a bunch of graphics with their logo on them to compare how this year has less named storms than previous years when they named them.

True...okay I have an idea. Instead of having 10 quotes in one post, I'll try 3 and see if that helps. That should make it easier to read too. 10 quotes in one post sounds unmanageable but 3 should be okay to start with.

and yet we still have a big fat 0 of those 12"+ events in early March here in SW Nassau lol as well as the 5 boroughs (going by the official sites.) What I find really weird is that January is so close to December in the historical record for those big snowstorms but still lags far behind February. Have you recently seen a trend for February to be warmer and our snowfall peak move to January? If you just go by 20" storms, it seems like the peak has shifted from February to January?

Thanks, but doesn't it seem a bit weird to answer different subject matter all in the same post? I'll try it but I thought it'd be confusing to follow.

yeah and look at how Brooklyn, Queens and SW Nassau suck so bad and with a storm slightly to the east it shouldn't be like that.

the temps are immensely important too I'd like to see high/low splits for every post February event going back to say, 1950.

Yes Jan 2016, we got over 30 inches lol

Oh thanks I just noticed that! Actually the main reason I don't use it is because I always think of more to say later on so it's difficult to plan to multiquote when the original idea is to only quote one person lol.

Also there is no sign we are going to have anything as cold as any of the above that late in the season so even predicting a 4" event that late in the season is extremely foolish. 1982, 1996, 2003 and 2018 were all much colder to begin with.

I'm not even sure March/April 2018 qualifies as "deep winter" since if I remember correctly for NYC at least only the early April event was all snow. Deep winter usually means lots of snowcover that lasts for a long time and I don't recall that happening after February in my lifetime aside from the extremely anomalous April 1982 and March 1993 blizzards.

It's dumb to predict snow over a month out regardless of which month they're predicting for (especially so in the spring anyway.) I'm having this discussion in the monthly thread why it's unreasonable to assume urban areas can get a 10" snowstorm after February, when we haven't had one in decades. Honestly, going by historical data over the past few decades... a 4" snow event in early April is far more likely than a 10" snowstorm event for NYC after February. I can give you multiple examples of 4" snowstorms in April somewhere in the NYC area from the 1980s onwards but no 10" events after February. April 1982 (8-10") April 1996 (4"-JFK) April 2003 (4-8") April 2018 (4-6") 10.0" plus all snow snowstorms in that time period after February..... "crickets"

the NWS needs to have their own network apparently.

One of those measurements from March 2009 was mine and we definitely did have a foot of snow here but it was on March 1st and since February only has 28 days it sometimes makes me wonder if that should really be counted as a March event. It was all snow at least. The other one was not. One of the big problems with late season events is that as rates lessen, you get a mixture of precip, even if the temps are below freezing. You need a hard hitting multihour band of 2 inches per hour for like 6 hours to get a big snowstorm here in March and April. Also, I agree with people who said that the temps need to be in the 20s, we've had that for all of our big late season events....can't be around 32 or even just under.

Significant snow in April occurs at least once every decade, so it's not as big of a deal as you (or he) thinks.

Wow, nice, thanks! So this shows they are more common in December than March, which is what I expected since we've seen a few big December storms in the 15-20 inch range here but haven't seen a March storm like that in my lifetime. The 2 in April doesn't include the 9.6" measured at NYC in April 1982 does it? Funny thing-- EWR measured around 13" in that one lol. Temperature definitely wasn't a problem. That was my first ever clear snowstorm memory and to this day my favorite late season snowstorm ever! I'm shocked the January total is so close to December and so far away from February, I suspect in our new climate we'll see January catch up to February within a few decades.

I also know Athena because that was the first one named and was our earliest MECS ever (8.5 inches in the first week of November and right after Sandy!)

I regularly mix up 1 and 2....never 3, since that was the GOAT!

okay in my naming scheme that's Western Suffolk 3/2018

I have a proposal, name each storm by the local area that got jackpotted. so it's Central Suffolk 2/2013 Eastern Suffolk 1/2015 JFK 1/2016

Yeah but we do need naming of winter storms....it's too confusing when there's more than one big storm in a month and I have to refer to....oh, it was the second big storm in February 2010 (as an example.) They name all big impact storms in Europe, they need to do the same here. I say name all big storms or name none, no reason for TCs to get special treatment either. Base it off of how large the area is covered by winter storm warnings and/or the number of people under them.