LibertyBell
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These will likely cycle back and forth but this marine heatwave issue may be the fly in the ointment in just how far north they can or will get when they do. Heatwaves always end at some point, but note how oceans always respond much more slowly than the air does, so those marine heatwaves likely last much longer too.
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That makes sense because north of the NAO block it's like a furnace lol. If you look at classic NAO blocks they screw northern new england and Maine is almost always blowtorching. If that block moves south, guess what else moves south lol..... That Maine blowtorch becomes OUR blowtorch! Actually you want the arctic to be mild because that is north of the block and the cold air that is supposed to be up there comes down here instead.
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This winter is literally a flat line ________________________ Fill in the blank line lol ______________________
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That would also explain the northward migrating SE Ridge and the most extreme heat going into New England and SE Canada during the summer too wouldn't it Don?
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I've not heard of north based blocks unless that's just a conventional block. We've known about east and west based blocks for a long time, south based blocks became a thing just a few years ago. I suppose north based blocks must also exist, but maybe they are just the "normal" kind of block? We've had -PNA with +NAO so the cause and effect scenario must only work under particular circumstances. Maybe there is something else that is the cause for both of them. Don's idea of marine heatwaves might be it!
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Was that the winter with all that record cold and snow in Texas?
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There are other ways to show what's been going on-- look at the impact on the lobster industry. The famous Maine lobster industry actually started out near Long Island. As the waters have gotten warmer those lobsters migrated north. Eventually that became the Maine lobster industry. Now as the waters have continued to warm, the Maine lobster industry is dying because those lobsters are now in the Maritime Provinces of Canada. It's all cause and effect really.
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Need to keep track of this and how the sensible weather results change decade by decade under similar blocking scenarios.
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If you look at Atlantic SST they were much much colder in the 80s than they are now. That has to factor in a major way. The only thing we can be sure about is old analogs will no longer work.
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That might have to do with the west to east situation that Snowman mentioned. west (cause) -----> east (effect)
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I think the weather actually moves southwest to northeast, so we get input from the southeast ridge and that is what screws us. In the case of when there is fast Pacific flow and it does move due west to due east we are screwed because of our low (no) elevation. You really want to have both latitude and altitude in these kinds of patterns.
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But how come cold weather doesn't move west to east You know what I mean lol, it's frustrating to see it so cold in the west and that doesn't move west to east but the rain does lol
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It's definitely abnormal and is happening for the same reason the SE Ridge has been migrating north and sending the warmest weather into New England in the summer. You really didn't hear about these south based blocks before a few years ago.
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Thought it was in the La Nina winter of 88-89 in February 1989 there was a Norfolk to Atlantic City snowstorm, it was 19" in ACY and was supposed to be 6-8 inches up here but we just got virga. Another 6-8 inch bust the following December with rain and thunderstorms instead of snow lol. We busted from two different directions in the same calendar year in two different winters!
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wow to see 71 on this date in 2011! also: 1989 - Low pressure off the coast of North Carolina brought freezing rain and heavy snow to Virginia and the Carolinas. Snowfall totals in Virginia ranged up to 18 inches at Franklin. Freezing rain reached a thickness of two inches around Charlotte NC. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) This wasn't the February 1989 storm that dropped almost 20" in Atlantic City was it? Our big virga storm lol
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It's the 1950s scenario. March was the snowy month for that entire decade.
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I mean I don't really hate what they had this year, they really have been in a major drought there for years. It's good not to get wild fires. They need that a lot more than we do, it's tough being in a situation where one part of the country has to be in megadrought conditions for the other part of the country to get a good winter.
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They are talking about agricultural concerns in coastal California and in the valleys for historic late season freezes.
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I remember seeing my crocuses bloom on February 26, 2002, that was the earliest they have ever come out.
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and neither January nor February average temperatures for the whole month were near what are this time around were they Don? I think we can get it to 45 especially with how warm it will be next week, likely at least one or two 60 degree highs and lows in the 40s or higher.
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We still have a shot at that 2001-02 record....Don do you have a rough picture of what the average temp was in 2001-02 from this point through the end of February? Next week will be quite warm again.
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Yes the outcome from that map looks closer to normal for us, which probably means the last few days of February would still be above normal and the cold if it really comes would get here March 1st.
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It actually reminded me of May 2020 in the Poconos, I don't know if you remember that but we had rain changing to snow (small accumulation) and snow squalls the next day the whole day (Saturday) wind chills around 0 temps in the teens....and then two days later it quickly warmed up and we had small hail which I saw accumulate on my pool cover and deck. Fun weekend of weather....but much better for May than February.
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So I just looked at the CPC outlook and they have colder than normal for the NE colder the more north and east you go and closer to normal just south of us and warmer than normal in the SE. By far the coldest anomalies are out west though the entire west coast to the Rockies is well below normal in their forecast so it looks like the -PNA persists. Then I saw their three month forecast March-May and they have above normal temperatures for the entire country except for a small sliver of below normal up in the extreme Northern Plains.
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lmao I thought that was small hail...I mean it has felt like late spring the last few days
