LibertyBell
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Everything posted by LibertyBell
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Yeah but that's only if the people who are in authority positions are still making the decisions by then.
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I truly wish humanity had the balls and the brains to control the weather. There are so many good things we could be doing to it.
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when will the data from those airplanes be ingested by the models? 0z tonight?
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PNA ridge out there going bye bye?
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You always talk about traveling, get on the LIRR or drive to eastern LI. It's not that far away and I think a lot of us should do it to experience a really big snowstorm. Then we can all rub it in snowman19's face lol. Who cares whether it snows in the city or not, it looks like dirty toxic stuff in a day or two anyway, let's go east to see the snow where it will actually look pretty.
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Exactly, that and the April blizzard are the only two things of note that happened in the winter in the 80s. Okay maybe the Jan 1987 snowstorm too and the Thanksgiving 1989 snowstorm. But 1989-1990 is remembered far more for winter suckage than that early season event.
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Might be worth it for a trip out east. The east end isn't far away and it's silly not to go. Then we can all say we had our 2 foot snowstorm lol.
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only thing we can say is perhaps the new data being ingested has had an effect? But those planes went out today- so wouldn't it be too soon for that? Might need to wait for the 0z runs overnight for that.
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we had that in the 80s too, again no one cares about cold and dry... the pattern has been BAD- period end of discussion
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Yes, these are imperfectly modeled systems, I would expect this actually.
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why not? it's happened before
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My other home in the Poconos has had a consistent 8-12 inch snowpack for the entire month. That place has a snowpack in ANY pattern. Says a lot for being above 2000 ft in elevation.
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Could've used that in the 80s when we were wishing for snow days that never came.
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Yes, they see it just as warm vs cold and thats it, only farmers know how it's destroying their crops with both flooding rains and scorching heat. We're going through a lot of tough times- I mean we are already, but they're only going to get worse from here.
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no one cares about cold and dry Januarys
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Sounds a lot like December 2009
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That's one reason why it's been so hard to get traction against AGW, most people actually want a warmer climate. Of course if you live in an island nation that's being threatened by it or live near a forest that burns every year, then you think differently. That's why in my opinion, what people think shouldn't matter, and AI should be running all our systems, to make the most logical and scientific policy decisions without regard to human "feelings"
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Not really, at least it hasn't in a few years. I think the last time it froze over enough for skating was 2015. What a winter that was..... Totally agree about being in a winter, but let me tell you, having experienced those 80s winters firsthand they sucked just as much being in them as looking back at them. Cold and dry followed by mild and rain is my most hated combo. -
sounds like some kind of weird and awkward drunken dancing aka "swaying"
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This is not one of those storms with a small snowshield this is going to have an impressive wide band of very heavy snow well west of the storm track- like some of the all time greats from yesteryear (Feb 1983 and Jan 1996 just to name a couple.)
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This is true, the lower scores start at around 6 days, once you get within that range, and if you focus on a specific time frame (for example 0z run at 116 hours vs 6z run at 108 hours), the skill scores of the off hour runs improves. I'd like to see what it's like today, vs that study which was completed in 2015.
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I posted a pdf of a study from Yang done thru 2015 presented at one of the conferences showing how the 6z and 18z runs still have lower verification scores than the 0z and 12z runs and it's mainly because of much fewer conventional obs data (RAOBS) ingested for those runs of the GFS.
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Long Island even western long island, does better on this run than the previous run.
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It did? The Euro had more snow for me last night then it had from the previous run, there was no phantom shift east. Also the NAM beyond 48 hours is like dividing by zero, less than useless. The GFS is about as useful as American made electronics.
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Using the NAM beyond 48 hours is like trying to divide by zero.
