LibertyBell

These models should all be contracted at 10 days and none of them should be allowed to run beyond that.

Tambora would have been even better.

That's amazing that both Allentown and JFK had their largest snowfall (and both 30"+) from the same storm! They are so close in latitude, that has to be the reason why-- you can actually draw a straight line (well in a map projection lol) from Allentown to JFK. But what I was actually trying to ask was-- was that JFK's first measurable snowfall of the season and is their total from the storm a record for the first snowfall of the season?

Lots and lots of snow? Lol jking, with less sunlight we could create a mass die off of vegetation and completely change the wind patterns and ocean currents, as the planet seeks to rebalance heat between the poles and tropics. The thing is when climate changes naturally, this happens very slowly and everything stabilizes and equlibriates and nature has millions of years to adjust. When human beings tamper with the system via climate change, everything occurs MUCH faster and there is no guarantee there won't be a lot of destruction before everything stabilizes and equilibriates-- and the new equilibrium point may not be where we want it to be. In the case of geoengineering, the changes occur even faster than anthropogenic climate change so you can guess there is even more of a chance things could go awry and create a chain reaction runaway effect. This has actually happened before and resulted in mass extinction events (via volcanoes).....the planet took a long time to equilibriate and when stability was finally reached 90% of life was killed off in the largest of these mass extinction events (the Permian mass extinction-- which also resulted in our best fossil fuel deposits.) We've already started the 6th mass extinction in the planet's history, this would accelerate that exponentially. It's probably something that if it does ever get done, it has to be thoroughly tested first and needs to be approached with extreme caution.

paywalled but if they're talking about using heating appliances for heat, I used to do that because I didn't want to turn my heat on before November 1st. Then I got a space heater for my bedroom so it's all good.

2015-16 was amazing with the first measurable snowfall being over 2 feet lol...30+ here Was JFK's 30"+ in that storm the first time a location's first seasonal snowfall was 30"+?

With the latest "upgrade" the GFS may be bringing up the rear of all the forecast models.

Climo says our first legit snow threat is around 12/21 as it usually is. That's when real winter begins. As it should.

After all these years of knowing what tristate area weather is like, I can't believe so many are ready to jump off the ledge.....do people not realize that this is how our good patterns usually begin-- with models jumping the gun on pattern changes, often by a week or two? Winter actually begins in the third week of December, so anything before that is a bonus. This is not a pattern being delayed in the middle of February-- ACTUAL winter hasn't even started yet!

why would you be copying him anyway-- his outlooks are virtually the same every year lol

That's my memory too-- and also when you get a -NAO in December it tends to persist for much of the winter.

above normal monthly mean doesn't mean we can't get snowstorms-- there are some + Decembers in that list that still had a decent amount of snow.

Isn't that warm water good for bombogenesis and we might need that southeast ridge to avoid suppression.

You really dont need colder than average to get snow. Just the right timing. We've had many many colder than normal months that either turned out dry or the timing was off and we had mild wet and then cold dry. There are other Decembers in there that were good for snow-- notably December 2020.

Monmouth county jackpot as usual. 3 feet there! Remember that deck cam lol?

in anger or delight?

What caused the change?

The last 10 days of December are when winter actually begins and that's when we have our first decent snowfall usually too.

It can be cold in both the west and east, and I see NOAA is now going with a cold east. The likely pattern will be cold in the north (regardless of whether you're in the west or east) and warm in the south.

I hate wind.

Definitely not underperforming. Very high winds and heavy rain.

from NYC subforum Dimming the Sun to Cool the Planet Is a Desperate Idea, Yet We're Inching Toward It. The scientists who study solar geoengineering don’t want anyone to try it. But climate inaction is making it more likely. https://www.newyorker.com/news/annals-of-a-warming-planet/dimming-the-sun-to-cool-the-planet-is-a-desperate-idea-yet-were-inching-toward-it/amp

a bunch of very rich people are thinking of doing it on their own with or without any government help or consent.

But he said he expected a snowy December (just not a big snowstorm)

If it made our winters snowier and colder we didn't see it until 93-94