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LibertyBell

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Everything posted by LibertyBell

  1. LibertyBell
    the majority of the 70s, 80s and the early and late 90s sounds a lot like what we have now. This period of rainy winters for us lasted for (more or less) 30 years or so, do we see the same cyclic change now and if so, is it going to take 30 years to get rid of it again?
  2. LibertyBell
    so is this more of a case of capitalism winning or regulations finally having an effect? also, does this apply to us only? what about nations like China and India, aren't they increasing the usage of coal?
  3. LibertyBell
    I don't know who would want an arctic outbreak without snow anyway, in 2023 we had two such arctic outbreaks and no snow in either of them. If you want snow, you want modified arctic air, not single digit cold.
  4. LibertyBell
    I was in 4th grade during February 1983 and it was my first year on Long Island, the storm started on a Friday right before midwinter recess and we walked home from school, getting released an hour early lol. I don't have any memory of March 1984 for some reason.
  5. LibertyBell
    a 2015-2016 type winter but about 2 degrees colder (because of a slightly less intense el nino) would be really nice, especially considering how many close calls there were that February (I remember the storm where the crane fell in NYC and also the Superbowl snowstorm.)
  6. LibertyBell
    We already had an active tropical season with 20 storms lol (but only 1 landfall), how much more active can it get, do you think we could get 30 storms again? And do you think we could have a very hot summer too with 30+ 90 degree highs and maybe even a 100+ degree high or more (because of the el nino to la nina transition?)
  7. LibertyBell
    It's going to cause a lot more mass migrations.... We've probably permanently exceeded +1.5C, so that first limit has already been breached, +2.0C is next.
  8. LibertyBell
    We're hoping to exceed last year-- not a very high goal I know, but small steps lol.
  9. LibertyBell
    Maybe two shots next week ;-)
  10. LibertyBell
    This is a vicious circle feedback effect, so I do agree with him that 1.5C has for all intents and purposes been breached and 2.0C isn't far behind.
  11. LibertyBell
    I think that's why you weighed 1983 and 2016 slightly less than the other ones? IMO a slightly colder 2016 would be the reason it wouldn't be a one hit wonder; besides the megablizzard we had several other storms (especially in February-- close to the superbowl if I remember right) that were VERY close to being big hits. One of them took down a big crane in NYC. So an enso not as extreme as 2015-16 could result in slightly colder temperatures in the east, which would be the reason it wouldn't be a one hit wonder.
  12. LibertyBell
    1958 and 2010 are great calls by you, might want to add 2003 into the mix too ;-) 1958 was a strong el nino and 2003 and 2010 were close to being strong too (as I stated in my post above).
  13. LibertyBell
    another strong el nino that needs to be looked at for this kind of pattern is 1957-58 fwiw 2002-03 wasn't that far away from being a strong el nino too (and 2009-10 also.)
  14. LibertyBell
    there's a reason why this problem never got fixed but I forgot why? I think it had something to do with the fact that when they tried to fix it, it caused an excessive amount of tropical cyclone development on the model?
  15. LibertyBell
    I think next Tuesday will be day 700? A nice round number to end it on!
  16. LibertyBell
    what model does this use? or does it calculate the average of all the ensemble means?
  17. LibertyBell
    wild to have 1996 as an analog during a strong el nino lol I see a bunch of interesting analogs in here both 1/4/96 and 2/1/96 wow and 1/1961 thrown in there too? as well as 1978
  18. LibertyBell
    that was a fun time, we had a severe wx warning in January after the blizzard and then back to heavy snow for February
  19. LibertyBell
    5.7:1 really nice ratios there ;-)
  20. LibertyBell
    Yeah and people who dont live here say we've been lucky because no named storms have hit the east coast this year, there's been plenty of beach damage without any named storms.
  21. LibertyBell
    I heard latest 2 am too, that's when the back edge of the heaviest rain will pass to the east.
  22. LibertyBell
    I remember when the 10/91 retrograding noreaster happened, I was wondering what was going on, I had never heard of such a thing before and some news outlets were calling it a "neutercane" a term I had never heard before.
  23. LibertyBell
    When would you say the peak is, JM-- I'm hearing around midnight?
  24. LibertyBell
    Remember it like yesterday-- it was three days of high winds plus rain ending as snow on the last day. All the fences went down here right on the first day. One of these years we will get a storm like that but it will be all snow!
  25. LibertyBell
    The Yankees played their home opened in the snow, it was fun seeing the snow stick to their baseball caps lol
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