LibertyBell

we might be getting a huge solar flare by then too-- 13 days from now

Probably because it was extremely cold in the winter, so the water takes much more time to warm up.

JFK must be even cooler

The sky conditions were pristine but nothing was happening.... it's rare we get a sky as clear as we had last night. https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/3-day-forecast

the farther north you get and the further away from the ocean, the warmer it is.

Specifically for NYC and Long Island, it seems to be only slightly above normal (less than 1 degree F above normal.) *I mean for May. March and April were much warmer of course. Spring 2023 was much warmer here though.... and the Spring of record here is 1991 when we had 8 90 degree days before June even started. 1983, 1991, 1993 and 2010 were the hottest years on record here by number of 90 degree days.

Don, is tonight another night of northern lights activity? I saw it mentioned to expect a surge of activity around 3 AM....? Looks like the sky conditions might be good at that time?

what's nycwinter's excuse though?

Thanks for this article, John, it runs parallel to my thinking.

Bro heat is measured by number of 90 degree days, average temperature means nothing. I lived through 1991 it was MUCH hotter than this-- I haven't even turned my heating off yet!

I lived through 1991 it was MUCH hotter than this.

I would love it to be hot but it's not been hot. I measure heat by number of 90 degree days. I've had my heat running this entire month and it really sucks.

I'd expect a large rubber band effect in June with much warmer temperatures.

if the AO is positive Don why has May been so chilly?

where did you go to see the total eclipse?

This is good for Northern Lights. Tonight should be the last of the good aurora shows from this solar storm.

the sun has started to come out here why is clearing coming from the east?

It's interesting that you mentioned wind pollinators.... Bayer's research claims that we have an excess of "male" trees and that's the result of bad city planning. More of the same here: https://nypost.com/2023/04/19/too-many-male-trees-making-spring-allergy-season-hell-in-nyc/ When it comes to allergies, men are the “root” of the problem! An excess of obnoxious, pollen-spewing male trees are wreaking havoc on New Yorkers’ sinuses — worsening what experts predict will be a hellish spring allergy season this year. In a trend dubbed “botanical sexism,” urban planners planted more male trees in the Big Apple because they’re generally easier to maintain than females, which litter sidewalks with seeds and fruit, experts told The Post. “But males are actually much more prolific producers of pollen. It’s an aggravating factor for allergies,” said Dr. Sebastian Lighvani, of the Allergy Experts practice on the Upper East Side. “The concept of allergies wasn’t on the radar of planners when they planted so many males. So we’re stuck with a preponderance of them,” he said. Pollen from dioecious trees such as maples linger in the air longer and fail to fully absorb due to the city’s lack of leafy ladies, according to doctors and horticulturists. As the inconsiderate males spread their seed, it creates an itchy, sneezy nightmare for New Yorkers. https://www.cnn.com/2023/03/08/health/allergy-season-early-pollen-wellness-climate/index.html But these aren’t isolated trends. As the planet warms, researchers say allergy season is starting earlier and lasting longer. And a study from the journal Nature published last year found that pollen count is projected to increase by 200% by the end of the century if planet-warming pollution continues to rise. Climate Central, a nonprofit focused on climate news and research, recently analyzed how warmer temperatures have affected allergy season in 203 US cities since 1970. It found that on average, the growing season – the period between the last freeze in spring to the first freeze of fall – is lasting 16 days longer in the Southeast, 15 days longer in the Northeast and 14 days longer in the South. In the West, growing season is 27 days longer on average, Climate Central reported. Reno, Nevada, for example, has seen a shocking increase of 99 days. And a longer growing season means a longer allergy season. Mold allergens on the rise Plant pollen isn’t the only trigger of seasonal allergies. Mold, a type of fungi that reproduces with tiny airborne spores, can also be allergenic for some people and can exacerbate seasonal allergies, according to the report. While outdoor mold is not as well-studied as pollen, according to the report, one thing is clear: Warmer and wetter weather – conditions that many locations are seeing more of amid the climate crisis – is favorable for mold development. Allergy season will start much earlier than normal and be far more intense because of climate crisis, study suggests “With climate change, we’re seeing increases in warming in all seasons, but particularly the fastest warming season for most locations across the US is the winter season,” Casey said. “So now we’re dealing with mold at a time of year that we typically wouldn’t.” Casey also pointed out that the climate crisis is making extreme precipitation more likely, which provides that crucial dampness for mold to grow. The report highlights the link between allergens and thunderstorms, which researchers say spread pollen and mold spores through the air more efficiently. “The problem with pollen grains is that when they get wet, they rupture, and they break into tinier bits called sub-pollen particles,” Casey said. “Those tinier bits are more easily dispersed by the wind when they dry out, and they have an easier time getting into your nasal passages.”

Interesting that Bayer did some of this research, not a fan of theirs at all, but the research is important. https://www.bayer.com/en/news-stories/the-pollen-problem A growing body of research shows that the warmer temperatures and higher atmospheric carbon dioxide levels caused by climate change are altering flowering seasons worldwide, lengthening pollen seasons and increasing the amount of pollen in the air in some parts of the world. Pollen seasons are now starting earlier and ending later, especially in the Northern Hemisphere. For example, one study found that between 1995 and 2011, warmer temperatures in the United States caused the pollen season to be 11 to 27 days longer. Those extra days could mean more pollen exposure, which is bad news for America’s 25 million hay fever sufferers as about 75% of them are allergic to ragweed, a common allergen. A longer growing season and increased carbon dioxide in the atmosphere may be contributing to ragweed growing faster, producing more pollen per plant, and having a higher allergenic content. And a single ragweed plant produces about a billion grains of pollen per an average season, with each grain potentially carried up to 400 miles (644 km) by the wind. And it’s not just plants. Global warming may also aid the growth of trees that produce more allergenic pollen, such as oak and birch, over less allergenic species like pine. A study in Italy found that over a 27-year period as temperatures increased, the pollen seasons for allergenic trees like olive and cypress, started earlier, lasted longer and affected more people. Climate change could also impact other airborne allergens. A rise in carbon dioxide emissions could substantially worsen mold allergies. One laboratory test found that a common fungus grown in current carbon dioxide levels produced 8.5 times as much allergenic protein as those grown in pre-industrial carbon dioxide levels. A 2018 survey showed almost half of Tokyo’s population suffer from hay fever, compared with less than a third in 2008. The Rise of Allergies in Cities We are also becoming a more urban society, with around 68% of the world’s population predicted to live in towns and cities by 2050. As with increasing pollution along with other factors, the move towards more urban living in various countries has also coincided with a rise in the prevalence of airborne allergies. For example, in one African nation asthma and allergic rhinitis were found to be twice as prevalent in urban settings. A critical factor in causing this is air pollution. Atmospheric pollutants such as exhaust fumes have been found to have direct effects on the physical, chemical, and biological properties of pollen grains making them more allergenic. Air pollution also makes us more susceptible. When ground-level pollution levels are high, it takes much less pollen to trigger a pollen allergy. Urban landscapes also bring other problems. They create what are called heat islands, areas several degrees warmer than surrounding rural areas. In these, trees and plants can turn green earlier and stay green longer during the year and thereby produce more pollen. This is exacerbated by some misguided historical town planning. Many cities had planted male-only trees as they don’t produce the seeds, fruits or pods that can ‘litter’ the streets. They do, however, produce pollen and lots of it. And with little female trees to receive that pollen, city air and streets can become filled with pollen during hay fever season.

https://www.cdc.gov/climateandhealth/effects/allergen.htm#:~:text=Climate change will potentially lead,that can affect our health. It's a serious problem with climate change and longer growing seasons... we've already seen this with a vastly longer growing season than we had a few decades ago. Not only does this cause "inconvenient" allergic symptoms it can make existing medical conditions much worse including asthma and lead to higher rates of hospitalization. Higher rainfall is also mentioned as a problem for people with asthma since it encourages the growth of mold indoors. And in general, mold is nothing to be trifled with, since it can be difficult to remove and quite lethal. Climate change will potentially lead to both higher pollen concentrations and longer pollen seasons, causing more people to suffer more health effects from pollen and other allergens. Pollen is an airborne allergen that can affect our health. Pollen grains are tiny “seeds” dispersed from flowering plants, trees, grass, and weeds. The amount and type of pollen in the air depends on the season and geographic region. Though pollen counts are typically higher during the warmer seasons, some plants pollinate year-round. Climate change will potentially lead to shifts in precipitation patterns, more frost-free days, warmer seasonal air temperatures, and more carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere. These changes can affect: when the pollen season starts and ends and how long it lasts each year, how much pollen plants create and how much is in the air, how pollen affects our health (the “allergenicity” of pollen), how much pollen we’re exposed to, and our risk of experiencing allergy symptoms. Pollen exposure can trigger various allergic reactions, including symptoms of hay fever. Hay fever, also known as allergic rhinitis, occurs when allergens like pollen enter your body and your immune system mistakenly identifies them as a threat. If you have allergic rhinitis, your body then responds to the allergen by releasing chemicals that can cause symptoms in the nose. Symptoms of allergic rhinitis can occur during certain seasons or year-round, depending on the allergen, and affect as many as 60 million people per year in the United States. Symptoms from allergic rhinitis include sneezing, runny nose, and congestion. Pollen exposure can also trigger symptoms of allergic conjunctivitis. Allergic conjunctivitis is the inflammation of the lining of the eye (conjunctiva) due to exposure to allergens like those in pollen. Allergic conjunctivitis is found in up to 30% of the general population and as many as 7 out of 10 of patients with allergic rhinitis. Symptoms from allergic conjunctivitis include red, watery, or itchy eyes. People with respiratory illnesses like asthma may be more sensitive to pollen. Exposure to pollen has been linked to asthma attacks and increases in hospital admissions for respiratory illness. Medical costs linked with pollen exceed $3 billion every year, with nearly half of those costs being linked to prescription medicine. Higher pollen concentrations and longer pollen seasons can also make you more sensitive to allergens. This can trigger asthma episodes in individuals with asthma and diminish productive work and school days. Extreme rainfall and rising temperatures also can contribute to indoor air quality problems. For example, they can cause the growth of mold indoors, which may lead to worsened respiratory conditions for people with asthma and/or mold allergies and heightened challenges in maintaining adequate asthma control.

No one has clearly stated what's causing this blocking pattern to last this long-- it never lasts this long during the winter. I'm wondering if there is a solar influence here.

I mean I keep it on every day. May is supposed to be a "heating" month anyway. My solution is to keep the house heat off (it's been off since April ended) and just keep a space heater on in the room I use the most.

But for several years we have had this dirty pattern where it's rainy and mild in the winter and rainy and cold in the spring. Last year was a nice break during the springtime.

why dont we EVER get this in winter instead of now?

why dont we get endless blocking in the winter anymore and what is it that's keeping this blocking in place-- is it the recent solar megastorm?