LibertyBell

2 hours ago, Cfa said:

I often wish we had DC’s climate, or at least much less susceptible to BDCF’s.

82 here.

It wont cool down here until after peak heating, well into the 80s here on the south shore

12 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Picked up .39" rainfall overnight.  Dare I say "needed" rainfall.  Topsoil was getting dry. 

Very warm and humid start to the day.

Night time rainfall is great  especially when it doesn't interfere with day time heat!

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The usual warm spots from around Philly  NE into NJ should get very close to 90° ahead of the backdoor this afternoon. 
 

I think even coastal areas will easily make it to 80 or higher.  The temperatures are being underforecast.  We are already at 77 here and it's not even 9:30 AM yet LOL

39 minutes ago, JetsPens87 said:

Anyone familiar with the Ambient weather WS2902?

 

I have the original monitor and it won't connect to wifi any longer (seems ambient disabled that functionality and you have to buy a new monitor of course).

Anyhow... I just set it up outside in a less than ideal location but there was already a hole from a tree stump so I went with it. Temp dew etc should all be fine but wind will be less since there a tree 20 feet to its west and it also gets shade from that after 5 pm so the insolation and UV will be skewed.

Temp and dew will be fine since not direct sunlight. So trade offs I suppose.

 

Anyhow... .15 inches of rain last night in the bucket.

It sounds like a repackaged LaCrosse weather station.  I've bought from Ambient in the past and that's what I got.  I never used wifi though, because the wired connections update much faster.  

25 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The evolving ENSO transition favors a hot summer. I suspect that many parts of the NYC area will have a shot at 100 this summer. We'll have to see if the heat penetrates Central Park's forest.

I'm gungho about JFK finally hitting 100 again too

5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The tree growth over the ASOS has become so dense that Central Park hasn’t made it over 98° since 2012 which is a new record.

 

Number of Consecutive Days Max Temperature < 99 
for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Run Length	Dates
Period of record: 1869-01-01 to 2024-04-28
1	4302	2012-07-19 through 2024-04-28
2	4022	1966-07-14 through 1977-07-17
3	3260	1885-07-22 through 1894-06-24
4	2844	1903-09-19 through 1911-07-02
5	2212	1911-07-11 through 1917-07-30
6	1786	2005-08-14 through 2010-07-04
7	1763	1983-09-12 through 1988-07-09
8	1761	1957-07-23 through 1962-05-18
9	1476	1919-07-05 through 1923-07-19
10	1475	1944-08-12 through 1948-08-25

1920

 

2021

Maybe we will have a nice dry summer-- dry through at least July with 3 inches or less rainfall each month would be great.

18 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Mid 60s already

Feels like early summer.

Firefly season will be here soon.

8 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

JB has moved past what turned out to be his latest missed call and is talking about a pattern similar to 1966 and 1977 for the second week of May. 

both had record breaking hot stretches in the summer.

7 minutes ago, SRRTA22 said:

Oh man I know the feeling...cooking Sunday dinner tonight was brutal....dews in my kitchen must've reached 80+ from all the pasta I was cooking haha

Yeah it definitely felt like a sauna lol, and then it just gets stuck inside the house even when you open the windows.

Just now, SRRTA22 said:

If you're saying yuck with dews in the mid 50s...you have a very long summer ahead of you my friend 

I know!  I liked it much better with clear blue skies and low humidity lol.

Although it's Sunday and I was cooking food for the entire week today so the whole house got hot from that.

37 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

18 inches with this one

Not many better ones to look at

It changed to rain for us, I still look at January 2016 as the peak of our winter storms.

10 hours ago, MJO812 said:

I'm looking back at old runs for the big Jan 2021 Blizzard. 

Coastal hugger though

There are better ones for us to look at.

24 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Tomorrow will likely be the warmest day of the week with widespread readings in the upper 70s and lower 80s. The hottest spots could reach the middle or upper 80s with perhaps a few 90° highs. May remains on course to start out with warmer to much warmer than normal temperatures.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.7°C for the week centered around April 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.17°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.03°C. The ongoing basinwide El Niño event is fading. Neutral conditions could develop later in the spring.

The SOI was -5.12 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.920 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 55.6° (1.9° above normal).

 

It was actually humid today and the sky was milky white instead of pristine blue.

Yuck!

3 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Way, way too early to think about winter, but just based on the current solar cycle, I would hedge very strongly against a -NAO winter right now. In the last 45 years (since 79-80), we have had 6 -NAO winters. All of them, without exception, occurred during a solar minimum, with a very low number of sunspots and low geomag activity. Definitely not a coincidence and HM wrote up a detailed explanation of why that is years ago. Wish I still had the link to it. But we have the exact 180 degree opposite of that solar setup this year

I  think for the winter we might be looking at 1973-74 and 1983-84, warmer version of course.  Which means maybe a couple of minor/moderate 4-6 inch events, pac dominated and lack of blocking.

But I'm gung ho on a hot and dry summer (at least dry June and July-- August could be wetter depending on TC affecting our region, but dry otherwise.)

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Ok JB lol

No it doesn't mean next winter will be good, but the hot and dry summer call looks pretty good right now.  It's already starting to dry out and heat is almost a given.

You can put 1983 in this list too, so 1983, 1995 and 2010 analogs are good for the summer.

10 minutes ago, chubbs said:

Yes the Atlantic MDR should be going up gradually, peaking in late summer, while the global average peaks in late March.  I was referring to the recent spike upwards  in MDR temps over the past week or so.

What causes the global average to peak in late March-- is that because we have much more ocean over the Southern Hemisphere than the Northern Hemisphere?

On 4/17/2024 at 2:46 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

This is very interesting

https://phys.org/news/2024-04-scientists-paradox-extreme-cold-events.html

I've mused a possible sci fi novel idea in the past where "Gaia," it turns out, has an an ethereal consciousness; it's just so vast it eludes what we think of as awareness - ... perhaps 'godlike'.   And, it is well-aware of CC, more importantly, how to "cure" the disease.

I like the analogy of the Clean setting on an oven - you know... raise the temperature to kiln degrees and converts the organics to ash. The impetus here is of course to clean the disease causing agent. But that's kind of hard to do if the pathogen is aware of the temperature rise. Uh... humans are the intended ash to complete this metaphor. 

By sending cold cloaks into the continents ... think of the frog in the pan experiment:  plunk a frog into a pan of boiling water and it immediately jumps out ( or tries to...).   But turn the heat up slowly and the frog, continuously adapting, will do so until it is cooked alive.  

That's all tongue-in-cheek, but it's an eerie negative feedback loop whence the primary inducing differential CC agent only responds immediately to that which is directly perceivable through the five senses ... which is precisely needed, and is being offset.  

There's a certain hot dog vendor who needs to be sterilized permanently so his inferior low quality genes don't get passed down to the next generation.  Could you imagine that thing ever being a parent? I wouldn't wish that on ANY child.

21 hours ago, chubbs said:

Yes it is surprising to see SST increasing recently. Atlantic MDR has reached early Aug temps.

But isn't an increase what we would expect right now towards the latter part of spring? Granted it's much warmer than normal, but they should be going up.

21 hours ago, bluewave said:

It will be interesting to see what is causing the the global SSTs to peak a month later than average continuing at record levels.

 

 

why would global SST be peaking now instead of during the summer, Chris?

On 2/28/2024 at 9:55 AM, Typhoon Tip said:

https://phys.org/news/2024-02-world-stem-surge-polluting-trash.html

...while we are busy cutting the pie into slices of who-dun-what in the causality of the climate holocaust ... this above is just a problematic.

Man, despite all conceits ... the evidences continues to mount, human innovation as a weapon unto itself, appears to be its greatest achievement.

 

Human population growth needs to be contained, end of story.

and especially the hot dog vendors out there, they need to be permanently sterilized.

1 hour ago, Rtd208 said:

It looks like Larry Cosgrove is going hot and dry for the summer with an active hurricane season especially from August 15th thru October 31st. We’ll see.

I like this... this is a typical el nino to la nina transition and can be compared to 1995 and 2010.

1 hour ago, ForestHillWx said:

Curious to see how fast we warm up today; yesterday was raw. Never made it above 54 degrees and with occasional drizzle while mowing the yard.

Though, it was a good day for the fire pit to start burning all of the downed sticks/limbs in the yard from the winter. 

Really? Yesterday was really good here, it was sunny all morning, the clouds only came in during the afternoon and no rain drops before 10 PM.

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We’ll probably need better climate models in the future to give us that answer. 
 

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-022-00301-2

This work must be open to the idea that climate models, as currently formulated, may be deficient in their representations of past and future changes in tropical Pacific climate. Until this issue is resolved, many aspects of future projections that are strongly influenced by the tropical Pacific – including future regional climate, teleconnected climate risks, and the oceanic uptake of CO2 – will be highly uncertain.

AI might help with this!

19 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Most knew to bail when the pattern change was delayed to mid Jan and only lasted a week or so before it flipped back to warmth

and this is how it always happens lol

it's been dejavu for a few winters now

13 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Incredible for people who don't have to work.

Work inside then