LibertyBell

snow report 1.2"  NE PA

lake harmony, PA

20 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

New York City’s proximity to the Atlantic Ocean moderates its temperatures, but provides additional moisture for snowfall. As a result, even as New York City has slightly fewer measurable snow events each year than Kansas City does, its events are bigger and its snowfall average is greater. On account of the larger temperature extremes, Kansas City can see earlier or later snowfalls than New York City.

Frequency of First Measurable Snowfall before November 1 (1991-2020):

Kansas City: 6 cases

New York City: 1 case

Frequency of Last Measurable Snowfall on or after April 1 (1991-2020):

Kansas City: 9 cases

New York City: 5 cases

Days per Year for Select Snowfall Amounts (1991-2020):

Kansas City:  Measurable: 13.8; 2” or more: 2.8; 4” or more: 1.0; 6” or more: 0.5

New York City: Measurable: 11.4; 2” or more: 4.7; 4” or more: 2.8; 6” or more: 1.4

Total Days with 10” or More Snowfall (1991-2020):

Kansas City: 1

New York City: 11

that makes for an interesting experiment in different blocking scenarios and different times of the season I always thought KC-NYC and CHI-BOS comparisons were worthwhile since they seem to have similar snowfall averages.

The most stark difference is in 10" or more storm totals, wow!

51 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

@Juliancolton You chasing the twister?  I expect photos of hail at the very least.

is he chasing the twister, or is the twister chasing him?

I think it might be over here, I see the clouds are breaking up

14 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

It would be very hard (but not impossible) here because of our geography too. Unless that cold is coming directly from the north, but even then we would probably also see some moderation from the Great Lakes to the west and warmer Atlantic waters to the east. 

right, it would probably have to be April 1982 like cold, which I don't even know if it's possible anymore that late in the season.  But with how severe that cold was, even if that had happened a month later, it would have probably snowed.

8 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

There was softball 4” size hail in new Hyde park Long Island with an isolated pop up sea breeze front storm about ten summers ago. Lots of legit damage. 

that sounds like the best area for hail because it's where the sea breeze front sets up.

this sounds like sleet actually even though it's hail

7 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

There was softball 4” size hail in new Hyde park Long Island with an isolated pop up sea breeze front storm about ten summers ago. Lots of legit damage. 

it's hailing here again it actually sounds like pebbles hitting my windows, the funny thing is the rain is really light though and the winds are really strong

Just now, jm1220 said:

Can’t speak for the record but there’s been hail large enough to damage cars within the last few years or so as a result of the sea breeze front driven storms in the summer, I think they were in the Mineola/Garden City area. 
 

Thunder here right now but I might get split by the storms coming through now. Looks like some small hail maybe in south central Nassau and northern Nassau near Glen Cove. 

yeah we had that hail about 10-15 min ago along with blinding rain, it was pretty exciting.

I think I remember the event you mentioned, and there was one on the north sure of Queens too....something like hours of hail with snow plows out lol.

Just now, JustinRP37 said:

The lack of an ocean nearby. Any inland climate is able to have larger fluctuations than we are. The midwest is infamous for huge temperature swings. 

I was wondering if it would be possible to get that kind of snow here this late in the season with a direct shot of arctic shot here instead of having one go to the west and then come here later on.  But those have become so rare that it might be a once in 30 year event now.

the thunder and hail came back along with the rain but not nearly as heavy as before

and just like that it's over....that's why I dont care much for these kinds of storms, they just dont last long enough

Just now, weathermedic said:

Pea sized hail just east of JFK airport in Inwood Nassau County

yes!  Thats what I saw and heard!  along with the blindingly heavy rain.

It looked more like dime sized to me though

Just now, bluewave said:

This may be close to the record for largest NYC hail in April.

At 2:25 PM EDT, 2 SE Midtown Manhattan [Queens Co, NY] TRAINED SPOTTER reports HAIL of penny size (M0.75 INCH) https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/lsr/#OKX/202104211825/202104211825

whats the record for hail size all time in NYC and nearby area (like Long Island, Nassau County, etc?)  Also in terms of duration (how long it lasts and how much can accumulate at one time?)

Just now, bluewave said:

This may be close to the record for largest NYC hail in April.

At 2:25 PM EDT, 2 SE Midtown Manhattan [Queens Co, NY] TRAINED SPOTTER reports HAIL of penny size (M0.75 INCH) https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/lsr/#OKX/202104211825/202104211825

this is definitely hail I see crashing into my windows here and extremely heavy rain like a waterfall!

5 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

06z Gfs is now downright summery late April into May.

Shows mid to upper 80s multiple days.

it goes with the NWS forecasts for a hot May

6 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Morning thoughts...

At 7:40 am, the late-season storm that brought daily record snowfall to many parts of the Midwest was bringing snow to Buffalo. Already, amounts in excess were being reported in the greater Buffalo area. As that storm tracks into Quebec, it will drag a strong cold front across the region. Passage of that front could be marked by a squall line with strong thunderstorms, damaging winds, and even some hail.

Today will be partly sunny and unseasonably warm. Showers and thunderstorms are likely this afternoon. High temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 68°

Newark: 68°

Philadelphia: 65°

Tomorrow will be variably cloudy and blustery. The temperature will struggle to reach the lower 50s.

How is it that Kansas City averages less snow than us during the winter but is more likely to get more snow than us now?

2 hours ago, FPizz said:

Already 100% clouds here in N CNJ.   Forecast was 67, currently 64 is the high.  Maybe those NE of here with more sun can touch 70

been pretty cloudy the last 2 days

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

MPO no longer records the daily snowfall. There is also no local storm report for that event. 

and nothing for anywhere in the Poconos, like Lake Harmony or Albrightsville?

1 hour ago, Jonger said:

I'm realistic. The only solutions people will rally behind are those with as little impact on their lives.

Sucking the CO2 out of the atmosphere in Nevada to pull down the levels in England are palatable for most of us. You seem like you have ulterior motives at control...you'll be watching the world burn with that kind of thinking.

car companies are on board to be fully renewable within 10-15 years and on top of that even China has committed to being carbon neutral by 2060.  And that's the last one to the party.

12 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Mount Pocono picked up 8.2”. I have no data from Lake Harmony.

Thanks Don, do you have data from Mt Pocono for May 9-10, 2020 also, to compare to 1977 on the same dates?  I think it was around 2" but not sure.

7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This will be the first time that we have 15 and 30 year climate normals with an update. So the annual average snowfall will be very high if we get a 15 year average. So it will be interesting to see all the new normals when they are released soon.

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/news/Upcoming-NOAA-2020-Climate-Normals

Calculating the New Climate Normals

Palecki emphasized that NOAA’s Normals are rather complicated sets of calculations, not just simple averages. These calculations fill in missing data using surrounding weather stations and ensure that daily Normals match monthly Normals. They also remedy discrepancies that might arise when stations change locations.

In this next round of Climate Normals, new things will be added—including several small changes to how NCEI calculates them.

“Our main methodologies have not changed since the last Normals cycle,” Palecki said. “But minor improvements have been made in how we round numbers, calculate percentiles, count the numbers of days exceeding thresholds, and format output.”

Also, for the first time, this updated batch of Normals will include 15-year Normals for those needing a climatology representing a period closer to today. NOAA will also release high spatial resolution monthly Normals data for the conterminous U.S., as well as develop new tools and methods to access the data

 

Another idea I had was maybe we could do a weighed average?  Keep the 30 year average but weigh the last 10 years twice as much as the 20 years prior.....that would give priority to the changing climate.

1 hour ago, gravitylover said:

This warm/cold thing is frustrating. I have so many things I want to plant and keep getting tempted during the day when it's warm but know that I should wait until these cold nights end. So, instead of planting I'm getting all sorts of yard work done, stuff that's been building up for a couple of years is getting cleaned up, cut up and buried. I'm cutting tree crown branches over 3-4" into 5 foot lengths and laying them down along the fence lines then topping with leaves, brush and soil and turning them into planting beds, I'll fill the perimeter of the yard with things like sunflowers and milkweed. Today the kids old swingset is coming down and it will be used to build some great new beds and stuff for the garden.

Looks like we might have sustained warmth starting in the first week of May, so not far away.