LibertyBell

1 minute ago, Gravity Wave said:

Except Atlanta actually has air conditioning in more than 20% of the buildings.

room air conditioning just doesnt cut it with this kind of humid heat.

30 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This was the highest average dew point summer on record at JFK. Today is the 39th day at JFK this year with a 75 degree or maximum dew point. That record is off the charts compared to past years. This was also the highest average dew point summer and first time any month had a 70 degree or higher average dew point. Humidity this high is normal for parts of North Carolina and Virginia during the summer. Just another example of the humid subtropical climate zone shifting further to the north.

Thanks Chris, so my subjective feel of heat was not unwarranted.  Will we get to 40 75 degree dew point days at JFK?  Out of curiosity what are the top five and where do years like 2010, 1983, 1993, 1991, etc fit into the list?  And how does JFK's record setting summer compare to other local spots like LGA, NYC and EWR?  JFK seems to be the hot spot for high dew points this summer thanks to a persistent southerly wind.

I see the previous record holder for JFK is 24 days in 1983 and not one other year higher than 19 and 1983 was post el nino so I'm wondering if we get that el nino this winter if next summer might be even worse? And maybe add a few 100 temp days to the mix?

Wow I looked up 2010- our hottest summer and most 90 degree days by far- only had 4 75+ dew point degree days?!

5 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I don’t know why anyone would compare this scenario to Sandy. Apples and oranges. 

NHC is really struggling with the intensity forecasts. I doubt Florence is much more then a cat 1 right now and on it’s way down to a trop storm. This really goes to show how much we still have to learn collectively. Smaller storms are really subject to intensity swings. Once Florence gets into that area with some good OHC if shear drops it could easily bounce back to a major. 

One thing these weakening periods do tend to do is increase the size of the storm after restrengthening resumes. That’s where you start increasing the danger for the east coast. A larger storm with a bigger wind field is much better at imparting it’s energy into the ocean through a larger fetch. So if Florence ends up being a very large storm down the road it would obviously have much greater coastal impacts. 

What do you think of my Felix 1995 comparison?  Just based on the approach from the east, not the final outcome for our area of course.

If you want a comparison to a storm coming from the east, this reminds me of Felix in 1995.  That season we had a lot of storms recurve around 70W but Felix caused a lot of mayhem for forecasters.  It was a Cat 4 135 mph hurricane at one point but weakened as it got closer to the NC shoreline from the east and the closest it got was around 200 miles from Cape Hatteras.  Some of the models had it coming up the coast to around Montauk as a strong TS or weak hurricane but that never happened, it stalled out under the really strong WAR of August 1995 (which also gave us a rainless month until the final day and widespread wildfires throughout the area), did a little loop off Cape Hatteras and went back east and all it did for our region was cause a lot of riptides and very high surf.

14 hours ago, bluewave said:

Essentially, one of the snowiest humid subtropical zones in North America during the 2010's.

it's why we are breaking "warm" snowfall records that were previously held by Norfolk, VA.

11 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I’m assuming that super impressive NYC 97 is from that incredible and sustained heatwave that killed a ton of people. That was the 1800s equivalent of one of our stuck patterns. Unc posted some great stuff on that a couple years ago. I would have to imagine we see something like that but more intense some time in the next few years Northern Europe had that this summer. Where records are just crushed. 

I’ll call it the forky pattern 

I think 2010 was our hottest summer, and we seem to get a recurrence of bake off summers every 11 years or so, 2021 could be our next one.

Funny thing is it seems like the more north you go the more 90 degree days- Boston has had higher temps than us and Portland ME set a new record for most 90 degree days this summer- I think it was either 30 or 31?  Less rainfall up there might have had something to do with it.

17 hours ago, NewYorkweatherfan said:

I’m sorry but In no way in hell is New York metro including  Long Island part of mid Atlantic. It’s just not! We have a way different climate here. It’s a different region. Simple as that! 

To be fair, this entire summer it has felt more like Florida here than anywhere else.

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Don, great stats. It ill be interesting to see if ISP and BDR can hold those lows through midnight. Those would be the highest minimums for the entire month of September. Several stations already set their 2nd warmest September minimum on record during this heat wave.

Highest September minimums:

ISP....75....2015...1985..1980

BDR..76.....2015

2nd highest September minimums

LGA

#1....81....2010

#2....80....2018

EWR

#1...79...1973

#2...78...2018....2016....1993....1961

JFK

#1....77....2016...1985...1983

#2....76....2018....1993

I see 1985 in many of these records- the same year that Gloria hit us in September.  This has been a crazy summer for high dew points and high minimums.  JFK has had a weirdly "low" amount of 90 degree days, but it has most certainly felt like it exceeded 90 on at least 15-20 days.  This was the hottest summer I've felt here since the early part of the decade.

On 8/1/2017 at 11:01 PM, ice1972 said:

Wow.....really a tremendous stretch of totals for the US inbound......starting with this year......I expect I'll be able to see the 2024 one in northern VT or upstate NY.....maybe my cards play right and I can get to Montana in 44 and then go home to NorCal in 45......52 decent chance - I'd only be 80.......after that I'm done.....too bad I'd have to make it to 107 to be bullseye in West Hartford in 79.....maybe....first things first.....2017 and one hell of a drive

Why does the 2044 eclipse end suddenly over the Dakotas?  And why does the 2079 eclipse begin suddenly around NE PA and not occur west of there?

And is the 2045 eclipse going to be over 6 minutes in Orlando? Looks like St. Louis, MO and Carbondale, IL will get both the 2017 and 2024 eclipses' totality!

6 hours ago, Juliancolton said:

The Disney parks will see over 6 minutes of totality in 2045, so that should be quite the show. That's approaching the maximum possible duration for any total solar eclipse, I believe. I can only imagine the festivities they'll host leading up to it.

Maybe by 2079 humankind will have the technology to be able to control eclipses to make them last longer and occur more frequently ;-)

On 8/3/2017 at 11:26 AM, wxeyeNH said:

I think I posted this before....

Cu and Eclipses...

When I went to Aruba and watched the 3 minute AWESOME total eclipse in Feb 1998.  Early afternoon in the tropics.  We stayed at the Marriott right on the beach on the north side of the island.  A 3 minute total.  Wow, watching a total on a tropical beach is indescribable.  Anyhow... South side of the island, 10-15 miles south had a bit longer eclipse.  So many astronomers eclipse buffs decided to head there.   About 30- 45 minutes before eclipse totality a Cu field formed on the south side of the island.  Wow, a crazy traffic jam as everyone quickly relocated north.  So lesson is,  if the weather is good but there are Cu watch the direction and get ready to move quickly right before totality.  One cloud at the wrong 2 minutes and your screwed.   Cell service will probably be over stretched so getting 4G Satellite pictures and weather updates might be hard on Monday. Locate someplace that if you have to move you can!  We are weather freaks so we know cloud direction potenial convective blow ups etc.  Average Joe doesn't and will be hunkered down a couple of hours before totality. Have your car in a place you can move  if necessary.  Sure,  large synoptic weather systems can be forecasted days before but afternoon scattered convection can not.   Remember everything happens at totality...

2024 will be a better eclipse.  Longer eclipse, wider totality path.  Darker sky at centerline.... Early April can be very fickle but if you love this one  (you will) you will already be thinking about the next.  We had to book Aruba years in advance

2045  Looks to be even better.  I'll be 89 years old so not thinking about that one too much!!

 

Thanks I already booked a hotel for Watertown, NY for the 2024 eclipse, going right up I-81!  Wish we'd live to be around for the NYC-Boston eclipse of 2079 lol.

Even if its cloudy for the upcoming eclipse, you can sneak in a small period of partly sunny skies like I had with an annular eclipse a few years back and got to witness 90% of totality through 10x50 binoculars for 10 sec lol.