LibertyBell

17 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Really? I guess the Jeff Spicoli thing will never die. Personally I enjoyed the sensation of gliding over the water at a speed not normally associated with New York. How’s that?

lmao!  I almost fell off my chair lol.

I only said that to him because he said "righteous" haha

2 hours ago, Will - Rutgers said:

I gave you a sad because I do not want to live under the authority of the mushrooms.

Yes, they will want to get back at us for putting them on our pizzas, getting high off of them and who knows what else....

12 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The two consecutive El Nino Octobers in 2014 and 2015 were active. 

hmm I wonder why...... I know we've been talking about some of our bigger storms occurring later in the season than before.

19 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said:

The mushrooms are beginning to gain sentience.

At this rate they'll be replacing us and building their own cities (or just taking over our own.)

17 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The MJO is moving into the favorable phases for more Atlantic tropical development just in time for October. 

 

This is interesting because usually in El Nino's seasons usually end early and this one actually seems to be getting busier later in the season.

1 minute ago, winterwx21 said:

Actually the models are showing another warmup for us around then. Looks as if we could get back to 80 by next thursday-friday (27th-28th).

Oh that sucks, oh well at least the 90s are done and with the shorter days 80 doesn't feel so bad lol.

1 hour ago, Juliancolton said:

The swells from Florence were pretty righteous in SNE late last week. Got a few decent shots of surfers enjoying the action

Cowabunga, Dude!  Is that SNE or is that Huntington Beach lol?

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

Picked up .70 here in SW Suffolk with the heavy downpours so far.

It was an astonishing 77/77/100% around noon, I wonder if the dew point has ever been this high this late in the year before?

https://classic.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-jfk/KJFK/date/2018-9-18

Now it feels better, it's gotten less humid and the temps have dropped from a high of 80 to the low 70s  since the winds switched to the north but it's still raining pretty hard.

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

Cold front this Sat night-few days of cooler and then back to the regularly scheduled torch.

hmmm I heard there were hints of a big pattern change come next Wednesday.

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

Getting a heavy downpour here in SW Suffolk now with the sun still out. Welcome to Florida.

It was bright and sunny and then started to pour within seconds.  This sometimes happens in the winter too, but with snow and the passage of an arctic front.

10 minutes ago, JerseyWx said:

You know I love the heat, but I can't argue with that.  Always interesting, especially when it's more than a dusting.

That was a very weird and interesting winter and spring we had, from 80 degrees in February to noreaster after noreaster in March and a snowstorm in early April.  That snowstorm in early April is something that seems to be more common before the development of an El Nino for the following season.  And after that cold and stormy April we went right into a summery pattern in May.

10 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I think we need some parameters. Just “nor’easter” is too broad.

I agree, some people need to look up their definitions of what a noreaster is and when it can occur.  We've had some in the summer also.

30 minutes ago, bluewave said:

41 days is off the charts compared to anything that we have seen before. 

 

Chris, do you think today is the last one or could we see more of these this month/year?  It seems to be rather easy to get 75+ dew points this year, much harder to get 90 degree highs, but if you look at climatology and past history, 75+ dew points should be more difficult to get than 90 degree highs here!

Fall begins Saturday night at 9:54PM EDT but day and night dont become equal until 4 days later, on the 26th.

On 9/13/2018 at 8:11 AM, SACRUS said:

More like Denmark in the spring.  If you looked at the 500 MB map the last 8 days youd think we would have been +8 - 10.  ONce we clear in 2023 we should warmup nicely.

 

In all seriousness - ECM is back to predominant higher heights in the Sep 20 - 24 period perhaps the next window for a little late season heat. 

Hey Denmark has a nice climate lol.

20 hours ago, Rtd208 said:

Every year around this time I like to get things started for the upcoming fall and winter with the "Predict the Date" of the first bonafide nor'easter of the season be it rain and or snow. Hopefully this season will be an active one.

Starts October 1st 2018 thru March 31st 2019

Noreaster season should be considered as lasting through April as we have gotten some rather big ones in April (some rain some snow.)  Tax Day noreaster in 2007 was one of the biggest on record, not to mention April 1982, 1983, 1996, 1997, 2003, etc.  

On 9/16/2018 at 4:46 PM, CIK62 said:

Anyone noticing that Great Britain, Ireland, and Scotland area are about to have about 4 ocean storms muscle in on them in the next week?  

 Wonder if that is typical for them at this time of the year?

They also had a very hot summer after a very stormy late winter and early spring just like we had.

6 hours ago, JerseyWx said:

Beginning May 2015 we kicked off that incredible stretch that lasted into December 2015.  Since then, Fall seems to have been extended and Winter has generally become backloaded (last year being a textbook example).

It was nice to see an April snowstorm again!

16 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

I'd go longer-bath tub water will promote a ridge-I think we're warm into December and then we get a backloaded winter....

I think we'll have a cooler than normal October to break the pattern temporarily and then go back above normal for November and December before finally settling in to our winter pattern sometime after mid January (probably around the 20th as has been happening lately.)

Well we hit our 41st day of 75+ dew points early today as it's 75 degrees right now with a 75 dew point and 100% humidity at 5 AM at JFK  Winds are gusting out of the South right now in the 30s.

7 hours ago, Will - Rutgers said:

Just a few tonight in Piscataway.

You might make it to Sept 25.

I generally think of them as an early summer phenomenon but bugs of all types have been proliferating in this tropical weather.

On 9/14/2018 at 12:15 PM, uncle W said:

next week Florence will be effecting us...How much rain will we get?...will it make this list?...

rainfall in NYC from a tropical storm/hurricane...

date.................amount........

Sept 1882.......10.63"

Sept 1944.........7.76" great Atlantic hurricane

Aug 2011..........6.87" Irene

Aug 1955..........6.32" Connie

Aug 1971..........5.96" Doria

Sept 1938.........5.74"

Sept 1934.........5.48"

Sept 1999.........5.44" Floyd

June 2013.........4.77" Andrea

Aug 1879..........4.59"

Aug 1976..........4.28" Belle

Oct 1877...........4.07"

Aug 1893..........3.94"

Sept 1904.........3.85"

Aug 1991..........3.72" Bob

Sept 1985.........3.58" Gloria

July 1960...........3.56"

Sept 1954.........3.30" Carol

Sept 1960.........2.42" Donna

Wow what kind of a track did that 1882 storm take and how strong was it?  Wasn't that our wettest month on record- almost surpassed by October 2005 (was surpassed on Long Island where there was 2 feet of rain!)

Also, I remember a tropical storm of 65 mph whose center crossed right over JFK, it was a B-storm in July 1996, it made landfall over NC as a Cat 2 or Cat 3 near Wilmington that isn't on the list, do you remember that one?  It was supposed to be our earliest major making landfall I think at 115 mph and took a slightly inland track but it was half over water so stayed a strong tropical storm at our latitude.  I just remembered it was Bertha!  How much rain did we get from that?  There was 7" in the Poconos.

Getting some gusts in the 30s from the South right now and a very sticky 75/75/100% combo 41st day this year of 75+ dewpoints!

On 9/15/2018 at 4:20 AM, gravitylover said:

Chances are you won't see anything like that again for a long, long time. That was something truly amazing. The rain gauge in Fahnestock St Park recorded over 15" of rain that afternoon and most of the area along the Taconics got 14 or more. I don't remember the numbers down in Poughkeepsie but I want to say it was over 12" especially in the hills just east of town. The only other time I've seen rain anywhere near that heavy was in Cordova AK in July of 1989 when we got 11" in just a few hours in town and near 14" at the top of the mountains right above town. If I never see rainfall rates like these two again it will be ok, the devastation that much water in hilly terrain creates is overwhelming and you're absolutely powerless to do anything other than watch. Seeing 60 foot tall trees getting tossed and splintered like matchsticks and watching cars get picked up and washed into ravines is scary stuff 

Classic track for inland flooding  Usually the heaviest rains are about 100 miles west of the track of the center of the storm, so if the center passes over western LI like Floyd and Irene did, you'll see NJ, E PA and the Hudson Valley get the highest rainfall totals.  If it passes over say Montauk Point, then the heaviest rains will be in western Long Island and the city.

On 9/15/2018 at 6:52 PM, gravitylover said:

WOW at some of the rain totals. I've seen a few over 30" already and it's still pouring and will be for another 10-12 hours. Woof...

I saw a few locations got over 30"  Thats three 30"+ and two 50"+ tropical events in the US in the last two years.

On 9/16/2018 at 8:57 PM, NycStormChaser said:

The sad part is we stood in the eyewall when it came ashore with a crap ton of 80 and 90 mph gusts and a max of 105. It was legit hard to walk in it. But now no one will believe that. Anyway, chasing this hurricane was pretty amazing. Once I compile all my footage I'll share It here. 

I dont know why people wouldn't believe wind gusts of 105-106 since that was reported from Wilmington and Wrightsville Beach where the eye came ashore.   The NHC had a landfall intensity sustained at 90 mph and gusts are generally around 15% or so higher than that, so the math definitely works out.  Yes, the landfall intensity forecast was way off from a few days out, but intensity is very hard to forecast, and also didn't matter that much since there still was a high surge more typical of a Cat 3 because the storm got larger as the maximum intensity weakened.  Point being, we need to use an impact scale in these kinds of situations.  The SS scale is not an impact scale.  The same thing happened with Ike in 2008.

2 hours ago, SRRTA22 said:

Me too. Clouds are racing, nice strong breeze and a very tropical airmass. Feels different then your normal warm passes we've experienced this summer..but ye know...human psyche does play a role.

I got this refreshing feeling last year too when those TCs were just offshore and in 2016 I think it was with Matthew passing by to our east.