LibertyBell

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, the Warm Arctic, Cold Continents extreme snowfall began to ramp up around that time.

Do you think there's some kind of connection here (specifically with the very early season events)?

1 minute ago, forkyfork said:

the snow run started on dec 30 2000

No I just specifically meant the very early season late October-early November storms that the early season Buffalo Blizzard kicked off.

Wow that was the historic event that kicked off this new era.....funny thing is that 2007 was the same year the big dramatic change in Arctic sea ice started!

12 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

The tree damage in NW CT was incredible. Especially with oaks which drop their leaves late. The same reason oaks suffered during sandy. It looked very similar to the damage in the Montreal area after the 98 ice storm. Whole canapys bent down but the trunks remaining.

if we do happen to have a high wind event there will be allot of tree damage here as the trees are behind from the warm September. Hopefully the cold this week and next will speed things up.

Yes it was horrendous, and in Mass they had 30" of snow! In October!

Did you get anything out your way?  in SW Nassau we had 1.5" or so could have gotten more but the precip fizzled out with the temp hovering around 32-33 lol.  The 6" line made it to the Bronx which was amazing and NYC was under a Winter Storm Warning in October!  That's like being under a Winter Storm Warning in May lol.

For us though the event the following year, after Sandy, was bigger, 8.5" of snow in the first week of November- the trees that got weakened by Sandy but didn't go down went down in that one.

Funny thing with these early season events the south shore does better than the north shore because we have an offshore wind from the North while the north shore is warmer because the wind comes off the Sound for them.

2 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said:

October 2011 had a big snowstorm just N/W of I-95. I remember my Dad in Allentown laughing at me when I told him to expect 6-10 inches. He ended up having to shovel 7-8 inches of concrete the next morning.

Yep and in the mountains just north and west of Allentown a lot more, my sister in Albrightsville had 20" with lots of thundersnow during the day and plenty of tree damage!

32 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The big storm at the end of last October also found a tropical energy and moisture connection when TS Phillippe got absorbed. 

Late October seems to be a historically favorable time for big snows.  There was another one between 2008 and 2011 I think where New Brunswick NJ had measurable snows and we saw a trace, not sure of the year.

Also OT but you mentioned something in the Climate Change thread, it was a link from WaPo, did Omjakon in Siberia reach a low of -88 this past winter?  And they mentioned that in 2013 they reached a low of -98, are those official?  Because that would be the lowest temperature ever recorded in the Northern Hemisphere!

6 hours ago, gravitylover said:

Yup, I had a foot of cement. It was a mess. We had no power for 6 days after Sandy then another 5 after the snow. 

Wow, I remember all three events now.  The 2008 elevation event where they had 6" in the Poconos and there was only a trace in the valleys and the historic 2011 event and the post Sandy storm that got us down on the coast too.

Funny thing with the 2008 event, Tobyhanna got 16" but Albrightsville only 6" so it was a latitude event as well as an elevation event!

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

1-2' is a little to broad, I would go up next increment which is in 6", 8-14", 14-20" etc, etc,  Also at times, From 6" up, 6-10" 10-14', 14-18" and 18-24", It soley depends on the type of storm as well.

When you have big events like that I see a lot of our forecasters use ranges like 6-12,12-18,18-24,24-30, etc.  I think the largest I've ever seen forecasted was 24-36" in the Jan 2016 Blizzard and also for the Jan 1996 Blizzard.  PD2 was right behind that with 24-30" lol

46 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Any phasing system could get a heavy rain and strong wind boost from the absorption of energy from the Central American Gyre.

You know thats what I was thinking- that this would have been the outcome in October 2012 had Sandy not been there.  We still would have gotten a strong coastal, but not the historic event that occurred.  I see that the cold will also linger into the first week of November like it did after Sandy, when we got a major snow (8") in the first week of November.  I wonder if that will be possible again in the first week of November after this event and before the flip to milder weather.

7 hours ago, bluewave said:

This is the typical El Nino progression. Warmest temperature departures November and December and turning colder and snowier in January through February and sometimes March. This is pretty much what all the seasonal models are showing now as the El Nino continues to develop. Last winter we saw the La Nina progression with colder November through early January blizzard before the pattern flipped record warm. We got very lucky with the strat warming creating the record snowy March into April. Otherwise, winter would have effectively ended on January 10th. While these 2010's winters have followed the general ENSO progressions, the types of extremes have been a new twist for us.

Thanks Chris, isn't there something about El Ninos that also shows a correlation between how October goes and the following winter?  Even if it flips back to milder in November and December, that the ridge west trough east pattern of October will be the predominant pattern of the majority of the winter?

17 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Not very difficult if you don't try to oversimplify things, Just work with a set of ranges and its very simple, i.e. 1-2, 2-4, 4-6, 6-8, 8-10 and so on if i want to get that defined, If not i go 2-4, 4-8, 8-12, 12-16 and so on in 4" increments between zones or areas and it works quite well, Even when you throw in the caveats of , "or more" in the favored elevated and upslope areas in some cases.

Right, I like your way a lot better because there isn't an overlap between the ranges.  

21 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

2001-2002 was basically dead neutral. But you're kind of right since it was following a 3 year La Niña. Typically we get El Niño after multiyear Nina. We didn't that year and it stunk. 

Will I think we had signs both years from the Arctic that they would be stinkers but those signs were ignored for the most part.

23 hours ago, weathafella said:

Hard not to be optimistic.  That said, remember how 2001-02 was epic in the guidance?  

Yes but there was a lack of cold air up north in 2001-02.....in that respect it was very similar to 2011-12.  So even with a block in place you were only going to get stale air.  Funny thing about 2001-02 was that the Carolinas got a big snowstorm in January, right down to the coast.  So when we did have the blocking we had suppression and it went and gave a historic 12+ snowstorm down south.......

On 10/17/2018 at 1:47 PM, stadiumwave said:

I really like winter. Can't help but laugh at myself. When it's a hot October I get nervous about winter. When it gets cold in October & patter looks like LR 11-15 I get nervous about winter thinking of 2011-12, which had a great October pattern. 

 

That's how subjective we can be. Objectively speaking, I've learned to deal with my subjective side with real conclusion October doesn't always mean much of anything for winter either way.  Can there be some clues? Yes...but not usually the monthly 500mb mean.

I wouldn't say that October in 2011 was all that "great", it was just one storm at the end of the month.  If you look at what was going on up in the Arctic that was one of our worst in terms of how fast snowcover/arctic ice build up was occurring.
 

On 10/16/2018 at 6:50 PM, powderfreak said:

The other thing is when the maps try to get too detailed.  It's hard as a hardcore hobbyist to keep the maps simple sometimes because you want to show all the little nuances, but when you are jamming 4-5 different "zones" of forecast in a small area it's just confusing.  Try not to overlap forecasts too... like a 4-8" zone next to 6-12" and then 10-14".  You could just do 4-8" and 8-14" and call it a day.

The main issue is snowfall maps by definition cant be that finely detailed.  Think about it this way- the average ratio is 10:1 so trying to separate 4-8" from 6-12" is like trying to separate 0.4"-0.8" from 0.6"-1.2"  The margin of error is actually going to be greater than the range of these "zones"!

On 10/16/2018 at 5:17 PM, Greg said:

Looks good so far but we need to get through October before things really start to fall into place.  Love the idea and look of a potential "Bread and Butter" weak El Nino pattern occurring.  Very Classic look but still of course too early. I'm very interested in how it pans out, hopefully very well.  I'll keep checking in time to time to see what the latest discussion is and how it's shaping up.

I like that October is setting up to have a predominant ridge west trough east alignment.  Even if it flips back for awhile to a ridge in the east and a trough in the west in November and December, traditionally some of our best winters are like that.  I think it was Isotherm who figured out why that is- that the pattern in October often closely aligns with what happens during the winter.  LC's forecast for the winter is also like that.

2 hours ago, MJOatleast7 said:

Yup the first one went to like 949 mb or something crazy like that off HAT...actually performed as modeled

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/January_2018_North_American_blizzard

Yes these dynamic storms that feed off the warm water really drag in the cold air from the north (provided there is cold enough air from the north to be dragged down of course.)  The also feed on the thermocline, the temperature differences between the land and the water.

2 hours ago, Minenfeld! said:

I can second this. Paint.net is simple and free. Hell of a lot easier to use than GIMP.

What about Irfanview? I find that one pretty easy to use also.

GIMP has been having some issues, a renegade developer stole the code and made a separate fork of it that's infested with adware.  He called it GIMPshop

1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea, it's pretty obvious.....First Law of Thermodynamics.

On 10/11/2018 at 11:12 AM, frd said:

 

@bluewave

This was a very interesting read , do you feel there will be a winter correlation here ( East Coast ) as in high scale winter events on the East Coast ?  

And do you think blocking episodes in the AO domain will be greater this winter becasue of the things mentioned iin the article . Thanks 

I already see some indications the the PV is elongating and might be prone to influences from the Pac and the Atlantic , thoughts ?

 

 

Had to correct the last part, Oymjakon reached -88 not -66, and it was -98 back in 2013!  No location in the Northern Hemisphere has yet reached -100

from the article

\

In this remote outpost in Siberia, the cold is no small affair.

Eyelashes freeze, frostbite is a constant danger and cars are usually kept running even when not being used, lest their batteries die in temperatures that average minus-58 degrees Fahrenheit in the winter, according to news reports.

This is Oymyakon, a settlement of some 500 people in Russia’s Yakutia region, that has earned the reputation as the coldest permanently occupied human settlement in the world.

It is not a reputation that has been won easily. Earlier this week, a cold snap sent temperatures plunging toward record lows, with reports as extreme as minus-88 degrees Fahrenheit. The village recorded an all-time low of minus-98 degrees in 2013.

On 10/14/2018 at 5:28 PM, gravitylover said:

Wouldn't that be something. Snow on the ground for 3 Halloweens in this decade.

Besides 2011 what were the other ones?  In 2012 we had 8" of snow after Sandy in the first week of November.

On 10/11/2018 at 5:38 PM, Juliancolton said:

-15F on 1/7 and 93F on 6/18 for a 108-degree range here.

I'm trying to remember the greatest spread here in a 12 month period (doesn't have to be a calendar year).....the last time it actually got below zero here was the 1993-94 winter when it was -2 in January and it got above 100 a couple of times in the previous July, so it was 102 to -2 so a 104 degree spread.  We haven't had anything like that in the new millenium.

On 10/12/2018 at 4:27 PM, forkyfork said:

2/25/10 was a few degrees away from 30-40" in nyc

Already had 30" in Jan 2016

19 hours ago, bluewave said:

For once, the EPS weeklies and CFS weeklies are in good agreement. El Nino trough in the East lingers into early November. Followed by a return of the ridge after. Pretty standard October into November El Nino response. 

Latest ECMWF weeklies show the cold pattern in the central & eastern U.S. persisting into early November, followed by a mid-month, #ElNiño-stoked warmup. 2nd half of November may not be ideal for East Coast winter weather events. pic.twitter.com/j3PgpkF2Dc

4:06 PM - 15 Oct 2018

Sounds a lot like what Larry Cosgrove said....cold until November 7, then mild from there through the end of December and then cold again January through March.... is that what your thinking is too?

14 hours ago, bluewave said:

After one of the latest first temperatures under 50 around the area, a low below 40 would be early early for the 2010's in NYC.

The NAM MOS and GFS MOS both have a low of 39 in NYC on Thursday.

Average first temperature under 40 in NYC during the 2010's:

10-27

Earliest

10-13-12

Latest

11-08-17

 

Didn't we get into the 20s in mid Oct on the south shore of Nassau County with snow showers also in NYC- I think that was last year?