LibertyBell

4 minutes ago, uncle W said:

40 in 1992...

but 37 at JFK?

also what date was that and what was the high?

do you have anything from there for May 14, 1996?

57 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

WELL IT IS NOT COMING ON THE GFS OP AGAIN.        DOWN BY 30 DEGREES IN TWO RUNS ON THE 19TH.        THESE FLIPS KEEP HAPPENING.       IS THIS SCIENCE OR SHOULD WE INCORPORATE THESE OUTPUTS SOMEHOW IN OUR  LOTTERY GAME CHOICES?   

 

lol did you get a load of the 20th- 48 hi 46 lo .....must be a cold windy rainy day.....44 is the low the following night.  Well at least next weekend is awesome, with highs in the upper 70s and sunny I'd assume.

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Strong -NAO and record MJO are producing quite a bit of high temperature volatility.

 

Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Date	Max Temperature	Max Temperature Departure
2021-04-01	58	1.4
2021-04-02	40	-17.0
2021-04-03	54	-3.4
2021-04-04	67	9.1
2021-04-05	70	11.7
2021-04-06	71	12.3
2021-04-07	71	11.9
2021-04-08	68	8.4
2021-04-09	53	-7.0
2021-04-10	67	6.6
2021-04-11	58	-2.9
2021-04-12	50	-11.3
2021-04-13	66	4.3
2021-04-14	72	9.9
2021-04-15	58	-4.5
2021-04-16	55	-7.9
2021-04-17	54	-9.4
2021-04-18	63	-0.8
2021-04-19	68	3.8
2021-04-20	78	13.5
2021-04-21	75	10.1
2021-04-22	51	-14.3
2021-04-23	67	1.3
2021-04-24	72	5.9
2021-04-25	67	0.6
2021-04-26	64	-2.8
2021-04-27	63	-4.1
2021-04-28	89	21.5
2021-04-29	80	12.2
2021-04-30	73	4.9
2021-05-01	68	-0.4
2021-05-02	86	17.3
2021-05-03	71	2.0
2021-05-04	75	5.7
2021-05-05	64	-5.6
2021-05-06	69	-0.9
2021-05-07	66	-4.2
2021-05-08	55	-16.0

any idea why this keeps happening in May?  It seems like this has become way more common since about 2010

On 5/5/2021 at 6:10 PM, etudiant said:

Life on earth began about as soon as the surface cooled enough to allow liquid water, so it seems a pretty quick process.

Intelligent life on the other hand took a little longer, many would say it still not yet here.

although I do agree about lack of intelligent life on this planet lol.  To be honest some animals seem to be far more intelligent and empathetic than most humans.

I found this endearing.  It has taken animal behavioral scientists decades to realize animals have intelligence, feelings, sentience and empathy.

https://www.pbs.org/wnet/nature/animal-odd-couples-meet-the-odd-couples/8025/

Charlie and Jack

Jack, a 16-year-old goat, formed an touching relationship with Charlie, a blind 40-year-old horse. Jack essentially became Charlie’s eyes, and would lead him around the ranch property where they both lived.

On 5/5/2021 at 6:10 PM, etudiant said:

Life on earth began about as soon as the surface cooled enough to allow liquid water, so it seems a pretty quick process.

Intelligent life on the other hand took a little longer, many would say it still not yet here.

No it did not.  The original earth was way too toxic for life, it was vastly different than the planet we have today.  It took 2 billion years for the first unicellular life to develop (the planet is 4.6 billion years old) and those were methanogens (cyanobacteria also known as blue-green algae) and those were needed before anything else could evolve because they are the ones who set the changes into motion that we needed to get more complex life.  We didn't even have multicellular life for billions of years after that, let alone intelligent life.

https://lco.global/spacebook/astrobiology/when-did-life-develop-and-what-were-conditions-early-earth/#:~:text=Some scientists claim life developed,recycled into the Earth's crust.

The first irrefutable examples of life on Earth arose around 2.7 billion years ago. Some scientists claim life developed as long ago as 3.5 billion years. This is difficult to study and even more difficult to prove or disprove because rocks on Earth are weathered and recycled into the Earth’s crust. Rocks from so long ago are very difficult to find and only a few have been discovered.

The early Earth’s atmosphere had a very low concentration of oxygen compared to today. 2.4 billion years ago, the oxygen concentration in the atmosphere was less than one part per billion and the iron concentration in the ocean was much higher than today. Starting 3 billion years ago and lasting for at least a billion years, soluble iron (Fe²⁺) in the ocean collected any freely available oxygen, and formed ferric iron (Fe³⁺) which is a solid, also known as rust. Eventually most of the iron in the oceans was depleted and the oxygen level in the atmosphere and in the water began to slowly increase. After about a billion years, the oxygen level had reached a few percent of the total atmospheric pressure.

Then about 500 million years ago, there was a relatively rapid increase in the atmospheric oxygen content. This began when an ancient relative of cyanobacteria evolved the ability to use sunlight and water for photosynthesis, creating oxygen as a by-product. Over the next few hundred million years, the oxygen content in the atmosphere rose to nearly its current value of 18%.

Until this development, all life on Earth must have existed either under at least several centimeters of water or underground. The ozone layer, which blocks most of the damaging ultraviolet light from the Sun, did not exist, so any organism on the surface of the Earth would have been killed by the ultraviolet light. As the oxygen content of the atmosphere increased, the ozone layer formed and began to shield the surface of the Earth from the harmful ultraviolet light. This allowed life forms to evolve to survive on the surface of the oceans and on land, and also allowed organisms who metabolize oxygen (like us!) to develop.

On 5/6/2021 at 3:37 PM, tamarack said:

From the wiki article on 1983 (emphasis mine):

The majority of the storm damage was from storm surge and wind. Damage was estimated at $308 million, the equivalent of $5.1 billion adjusted for inflation in 2016 dollars, making it among the most costly hurricanes to strike the U.S. mainland.^[22] It is estimated that, if an identical hurricane had struck in 2005, it would have caused $39.2 billion in damage due to changes in population and infrastructure.^[23]

Certainly the number and impact of events have been greatly affected by climate change, but some of the increase in gigabuck disasters might be due to the above.  Sandy affected considerably more area than 1938, but looking at pics and reading about the earlier storm makes the inflation-adjusted cost differences between the two storms hard to believe.   (From Google:  Sandy's damage totaled $70 BB in 2012 dollars, perhaps 15 times more than 1938.)

I think Sandy caused $60 billion in damage.

On 5/6/2021 at 3:37 PM, tamarack said:

From the wiki article on 1983 (emphasis mine):

The majority of the storm damage was from storm surge and wind. Damage was estimated at $308 million, the equivalent of $5.1 billion adjusted for inflation in 2016 dollars, making it among the most costly hurricanes to strike the U.S. mainland.^[22] It is estimated that, if an identical hurricane had struck in 2005, it would have caused $39.2 billion in damage due to changes in population and infrastructure.^[23]

Certainly the number and impact of events have been greatly affected by climate change, but some of the increase in gigabuck disasters might be due to the above.  Sandy affected considerably more area than 1938, but looking at pics and reading about the earlier storm makes the inflation-adjusted cost differences between the two storms hard to believe.   (From Google:  Sandy's damage totaled $70 BB in 2012 dollars, perhaps 15 times more than 1938.)

I think you mean 1938 not 1983

22 hours ago, uncle W said:

NYC got into the low 30's last May...A standard recprd low with the lowest 34 degree temp for so late in the season...it was the first time since 1978 NYC got below 40 in May...years since 1960 that had temps below 40 in May...it happened seven times in 16 years...then it took 42 years for it to happen again...

1963...38...

1966...36...

1967...39...

1970...38...

1976...38...

1977...36...

1978...38...

2020...34...

wow can you recheck that please....I thought we got down into the 30s in May 1992, not sure of the day.....but I remember the low was 39 in NYC and 37 at JFK (and 36 here just east of JFK)

It was cloudy as I recall it with temps in the 40s for most of the day and even snow flurries in Morristown.

May 1996 we had a heavy frost here on Long Island on the 14th (Monday morning), and a low of 33-34.  Had 1-3 inches of snow in the Poconos after severe wx and a frontal passage, some trees snapped and came down during the snow.

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

No I'm talking about greenery on top of buildings and the community gardens and urban farming are actually places in Queens and the Bronx where people are growing their own food to get away from the processed crap that passes for "food" these days.

https://www.nybg.org/gardens/bronx-green-up/urban-farming-community-gardening/

 

Thanks to things like this, people never have to eat diabetes and obesity causing crap anymore.

Lots of amazing stuff being done to eliminate the food deserts in NYC.

1 hour ago, nyrangers1022 said:

Trash weather.  49 and drizzle in May.  Still waiting for constant 70s and sun

why does this kind of weather still even exist in May?  I want global temps to warm by 10C so this is gone forever.

8 hours ago, gravitylover said:

The green out there has nothing to do with food (or environmentally wise aspects), it's lawns, non native landscaping and golf courses. 

No I'm talking about greenery on top of buildings and the community gardens and urban farming are actually places in Queens and the Bronx where people are growing their own food to get away from the processed crap that passes for "food" these days.

https://www.nybg.org/gardens/bronx-green-up/urban-farming-community-gardening/

Thanks to things like this, people never have to eat diabetes and obesity causing crap anymore.

6 hours ago, Juliancolton said:

Pollen levels are biblical right now. It's like all the rain just made trees produce twice as much of the stuff.

with all the technology and chemicals we have how come we haven't discovered something that blocks the production of pollen?  this much is a health hazard even if we could only block just 50% of it, that would be great

10 hours ago, uncle W said:

another cold May day almost the same date as last years May record cold and snow...sometimes weather repeats it self a year later or is the exact opposite...

I wonder how cold tomorrow will be

21 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Major problems for the Southwest if those precip trends continue, and they’re in another severe drought this year. I read that an official water shortage may be coming soon for parts of NV and AZ because of low water levels on the Colorado River and lakes. 

Lake Mead wont be able to provide water after a few more years....it'll probably happen by 2030.

9 hours ago, bluewave said:

Our precipitation is increasing along with the temperatures. Rural, suburban, and urban sites are experiencing a faster minimum temperature rise than maximum. The maps below show the rate of change per decade.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/09/200930194912.htm

Days warmed more quickly in some locations, and nights did in others -- but the total area of disproportionately greater night-time warming was more than twice as large.

The study shows this "warming asymmetry" has been driven primarily by changing levels of cloud cover.

Increased cloud cover cools the surface during the day and retains the warmth during the night, leading to greater night-time warming. Whereas, decreasing cloud cover allows more warmth to reach the surface during the day, but that warmth is lost at night.

 

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-precip/us-trends/tmin/ann

Thanks, when will we get to the point where cloud cover wont matter and warming will accelerate to the point that we'll have several 100 degree days each year?  I heard that might happen by 2050 and we'll have an Atlanta type of climate by then.

At some point carbon dioxide and methane forcing will break the cap that clouding provides and we'll enter new territory.

12 hours ago, gravitylover said:

Sort of but not really. The way they develop out there includes new green areas that were just beige before. These newly landscaped and grassy areas add to the RH and general cooling in the valley bringing the temps down (theoretically).

we're doing green in NYC too.  Glad to see it, get rid of that concrete crap and replace it with community gardens for healthier food in the food deserts too.

I heard we have 65 bee farms in Manhattan, bees are doing well here because of the lack of pesticides.

16 hours ago, bluewave said:

I did a calculation of how much warmer the new 30 yr and 15yr climate normals  are in NYC than 1981-2010. 

Month….30yr….15yr

Dec.+1.6….+2.2

Jan..+1.1….+1.7

Feb…+0.6…+0.5

Mar..+0.3…+0.7

Apr…+0.7…+1.0

May…+0.8…+1.4

Jun….+0.5…+0.6

Jul….+1.0….+1.9

Aug….+0.9….+1.0

Sep….+1.2….+1.9

Oct….+1.0….+1.9

Nov…+0.3…+0.4

 

 

Chris, can you do one for monthly rainfall patterns?  That would be interesting to see too.

Also can you a break down, monthly avg maxes vs monthly avg mins?  Thanks!

7 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

After a mainly cloudy and sometimes rainy day, the sun will return tomorrow. Tomorrow into the middle of next week will likely feature somewhat cooler than normal to near normal temperatures with perhaps a day or two of much below normal readings. Such cool shots have often occurred with a cold ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly, as is currently the case.

Out West, Phoenix recorded its first 100° day of the year today. Last year saw Phoenix register a record 145 days on which the temperature rose to 100° or above.

As had been the case with April, the closing week of May could wind up warmer to much warmer than normal. In the four cases where the MJO reached Phase 1 at an amplitude of 2.000 or above in comination with a cool ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly during the May 1-10 period, as occurred this year, three wound up with warmer to much warmer than normal conditions. At New York City, the mean temperature during the closing 7 days of May was 72.7° during those three cases while it was 72.0° at Philadelphia. The 1991-2020 means were 67.9° and 69.7° respectively. Only May 25-31, 2013 (monthly ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly of -1.38°C) was cooler than normal. However, 90° heat arrived on May 29 in Philadelphia and May 30 in New York City during 2013.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around April 28. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.87°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.45°C. Neutral-cool ENSO conditions are now developing. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely be in place by the end of spring.

The SOI was +25.91 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.227 today.

On May 4 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 2.989 (RMM). The May 3-adjusted amplitude was 3.394 (RMM).

In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer.

 

Don, interesting that the average of the 3 analogs that had a warm last week of May were warmer at NYC than they were at PHL.  And the only one of the 4 that was cooler still hit 90 in May!  How is it possible for a week that has a 90 degree temp in May to end up below normal?  And do you think we might get our first 90 before May ends?

5 hours ago, bluewave said:

The minimums are increasing faster than the maximums across the region. So the number of 70° minimums has doubled or tripled from 1981 to 2020. This is the case at urban,rural, and suburban stations. My guess is that this is related to the big increase in humidity and clouds at night as the climate warms. Since the Central Park station has become so overgrown with vegetation, POU to our north now has more 90° days than NYC. But the NYC nighttime minimums are increasing just as fast as other stations. So you can see it’s an artificial shading effect due to poor sensor sitting under the trees and bushes.

Change in 90° highs and 70° lows 

……….1981….90°…..70°…….2020…….90°……70°

EWR…26/35….29/43

LGA….14/32….26/67

NYC….19/29…16/47

JFK…..11/29….11/40

ISP……..6/15……9/30

BDR……6/11……11/35

POU….12/3…..…19/9

BDL……14/6…….24/13

TTN…….18/17…..26/31

 

 

That is wild, maybe we need to use EWR or :LGA more now.  LGA had nearly 50 90 degree days in 2010, I always use that as the benchmark for summer heat.  Thanks so much for this list!  Can you please add Allentown and Mount Pocono too? I want to make a comparison between my two locations.

Wild that NYC is the only one that has gone down in 90 degree days, even JFK has stayed steady.  Wild how NYC and LGA have gone in completely different directions.  Wouldn't it be amazing if in the future JFK exceeds NYC's 90 degree days on average lol?

2 hours ago, nycwinter said:

beautiful weather chilly raw beats those days when it was in the 90;s in may..

70s and sunny would be ideal, low humidity too

5 hours ago, rclab said:

 

Good morning Liberty. I agree. Mr. Brennan’s work did highlight the differences present/past in great detail as well as some differences amongst scientists opinions. He did not shy away from our own, present blink of a geologic eye, efficiency in changing/speeding up the natural flow. To me as a minimal knowledge layman it was more educational than editorial. When all was said and done after hundreds of pages, it was sad and poignant. As always ...

What I find so amazing is how many things needed to go just right to develop life on this planet.

Having an oversized moon not the least of it.

5 hours ago, rclab said:

Good morning, Don. I read a book, The Ends of the World: Volcanic Apocalypse, Lethal Oceans and Our Quest to Understand Earths Past Mass Extinctions, by Peter Brennan. It, to me, was not entertainment but a literal tour through the first 4+ billion years of our planets existence , the present and possibilities for the next 1.8 billion years. The author is a science journalist. His sources and interactions in his narrative are with Scientists. Geology, Paleontology and Astronomy were at the core. I was so moved that I even wrote a review for Amazon. I found Mr Brennan’s work disturbing and humbling. Be well, as always ... 

For much of our planet's history it was uninhabitable.  Not only that the atmospheric composition was entirely different.

7 hours ago, rclab said:

Good evening Irish. “A little knowledge is a dangerous thing” except to chronic complainers. They don’t have any to speak of. As always ....

Maybe thats why they are complaining lol

On 5/3/2021 at 5:00 PM, gravitylover said:

Since the dry period began last spring it seems that it just wants to be dry rather than wet. Other than a few weeks this winter and a short stint here and there it's tough to meet expectations for rain events. It's dry out there and this current event looks to me like it may end up with pretty moderate totals (unless you get under a good t-storm), like so many before it, that don't help to bring back the soil moisture levels. If you're on a well like me you may want to consider water intensive projects now rather than waiting, if we do go dry like late last summer you may not have the water resources to draw from. I think I'll do some power washing while it's raining the next few days so I don't have to use as much water to rinse.

Not having a lot of rain  and low humidity levels has been great in keeping my allergies down.  Maybe we'll finally hit 100 here if it's dry enough.  I miss those summers.  This is the first spring I can remember in years when I didn't have to take any allergy medication.  I think the last time this was the case was when my dad was alive, which would be 2014.

10 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

The temperature rose into the 70s as far north as New York City and the 80s in Philadelphia. Farther south, portions of the Southeast and Middle Atlantic region saw very warm temperatures. At Richmond, the temperature rose to 90° today. At Norfolk, the temperature soared to 93°, which surpassed the previous daily record of 92°, which was set in 1887 and tied in 1892.

The number of 90° or above days last year and the five-year average for select cities is below:

Albany: 2020: 13 days; 5-Year Average: 13.6 days
Allentown: 2020: 24 days; 5-Year Average: 27.6 days
Baltimore: 2020: 46 days; 5-Year Average: 44.6 days
Boston: 2020: 14 days; 5-Year Average: 17.2 days
Bridgeport: 2020: 11 days; 5-Year Average: 13.4 days
Burlington: 2020: 20 days; 5-Year Average: 13.0 days
Harrisburg: 2020: 35 days; 5-Year Average: 30.6 days
Hartford: 2020: 39 days; 5-Year Average: 29.0 days
Islip: 2020: 8 days; 5-Year Average: 9.4 days
New York City-JFK: 2020: 12 days; 5-Year Average: 10.2 days
New York City-LGA: 2020: 34 days; 5-Year Average: 29.4 days
New York City-NYC: 2020: 20 days; 5-Year Average: 18.2 days
Newark: 2020: 31 days; 5-Year Average: 31.2 days
Philadelphia: 2020: 36 days; 5-Year Average: 34.6 days
Scranton: 2020: 5 days; 5-Year Average: 16.4 days
Washington, DC: 2020: 46 days; 5-Year Average: 50.8 days

Tomorrow will be another mild day, though not as warm as today. Showers and thundershowers are possible as a cold front moves across the region. The remainder of the week will likely feature near normal to somewhat cooler than normal temperatures. Such cool shots have often occurred with a cold ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly (-1.0°C in the latest weekly data).

As had been the case with April, the closing week of May could wind up warmer to much warmer than normal. In the four cases where the MJO reached Phase 1 at an amplitude of 2.000 or above in comination with a cool ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly during the May 1-10 period, as occurred this year, three wound up with warmer to much warmer than normal conditions. At New York City, the mean temperature during the closing 7 days of May was 72.7° during those three cases while it was 72.0° at Philadelphia. The 1991-2020 means were 67.9° and 69.7° respectively. Only May 25-31, 2013 (monthly ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly of -1.38°C) was cooler than normal. However, 90° heat arrived on May 29 in Philadelphia and May 30 in New York City during 2013.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around April 28. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.87°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.45°C. Neutral-cool ENSO conditions are now developing. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely be in place by the end of spring.

The SOI was +7.91 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.193 today.

On May 3 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 3.395 (RMM). The May 2-adjusted amplitude was 3.570 (RMM).

In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer.

 

Wow this is interesting- Allentown has been averaging more 90 degree days than NYC/  Don both of those summers you mentioned were hot but not extreme, I don't believe either had any 100 degree days here and neither was among the top for number of 90 degree days?  They were just consistently very warm to hot without being extreme.  1988 could have been but the extreme heat was to our west, and Long Island and the city didn't reach 100 like they did in years like 1977, 1980, 1983, 1991, 1993, 1995, 1999, 2010, 2011, for example.