LibertyBell

https://www.nymetroweather.com/2018/10/17/nyc-area-forecast-freeze-watches-issued-coldest-air-season-arrives/

On 10/11/2018 at 8:45 PM, jm1220 said:

The stronger than average SE Ridge will eventually burn us near the coast and force tracks inland. We’ve been on a good run without much blocking but it can’t last forever. 

I like that we have an el nino, it usually forces more suppressed tracks that are good for us, most of our biggest snowstorms have occurred during an el nino.  It might get off to a rocky start but I have confidence in the second half of winter at least.

Meanwhile I'm glad October actually feels like fall- I wasn't taking seriously the idea of a torch October.  It's the fall month historically least likely to torch and we should see our first frost this weekend.

On 10/11/2018 at 4:09 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

There are conflicting signals RE any potential SSW...but its tough to find a weak el nino event that did not feature some significant episodes of blocking...even the mild ones that raindance loves.

I'll take my chances with a Feb 2007 repeat....even Feb 1995 featured a good event.

Hell no!  Feb 2003 and Feb 2015 repeat...... GO BIG OR GO HOME!

On 10/11/2018 at 3:59 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Agree. A good deal of the the folks promulgating the use of those analogs are discarding the late 70s because it was a different era.

Folks need to be consistent with methodology.

I think many are allowing the preconceived notion of predominantely pos NAO season to bias their analog selection, which is backwards.

Let the data dictate analog set, and then refine...for instance, there are some years with a good deal of blocking, so while the season may register a pos NAO in the means, there is likely going to be a decent period of blocking. Use the analogs and ENSO climo to guide when that may be.

It's not what the predominant NAO signal for the season is per se, but how many times it changes, thats why closer to neutral NAO seem to be the best seasons for snowfall- PD2 for example occurred when the NAO was positive.  There are many examples of this.

Also the warmer than normal temps offshore do allow for quicker bombogenesis and drag in colder air from the north into these storms.  That's actually a more favorable signal for northeast snowstorms than colder than normal waters just offshore.  The continent supplies the cold air and the water supplies the moisture, and the warmer the water the better, because that means the air above that water is more moist and the water is a powder keg for big storms (like what we had last winter.)  This is exactly why the past decade has been so great for big snows.

On 10/11/2018 at 3:54 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

James, how is your novel coming along?

LMAO how come you dont post in the Red Sox thread anymore Ray?!

13 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Oh that's definitely the case. 

I'll be captivated tracking tropical that could be a threat to the US
I'll be fine with nothing imby if severe is in the region
I don't care about a rain jackpot

I am no more imby than when it comes to snow. I won't pull for people to fail, but I want the jackpot. Always. 

Fortunately, I am a person inclined to be happy so when the jackpot inevitably fails I am usually making the best of what I have. 

LOL that's me exactly.  The funny thing is that's the first time I've been jackpotted since 2002-03.  Where I live is usually a huge snowhole and severe weather hole, and all our big "jackpots" have been in high end el ninos....1982-83, then 2002-03 and finally 2015-16.  Most of the other times we were on the lower end of the regional snowfall totals.

As far as severe weather is concerned, the last time we had a great severe weather outbreak here was Labor Day 1998.

I think we had our latest 70 min here beat 2015 by a day and got it on Oct 10, with the rain today we are already in the 60s.

On 10/9/2018 at 3:14 PM, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

That’s exactly what I’m thinking. It’s going to be winter cancel and then kaaaaaaa boom

The Euro for next February has consistently looked amazing....let's hope it doesn't end up like 2006-07 and we get a bunch of ice/sleet events!

On 10/8/2018 at 8:24 PM, psv88 said:

My Crepe Myrtle died last winter. That cold snap where we hit -4 killed it. Local nursery told me that many died on the island. 

Woah -4 on Long Island?  Not on this part of Long Island, we haven't been to zero or below since 1994 lol.

20 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

I think a near Cat 5 at the FL panhandle will win the prize this year. 

This will be upgraded to Cat 5 post analysis just like Andrew was, everything was leveled down there.

1 hour ago, Gravity Wave said:

It was only 7 years ago that areas just n&W of I-95 in the MA had a nice snowstorm in the last week of October. It's definitely possible with the unseasonably cold air being forecast.

We also had a big snow the next year in the first week of November on Long Island, 8" and it was Sandy related.

3 hours ago, NJwx85 said:

We will have multiple rounds of convection today even if the core of Michael slides by just to the Southeast.

We already had one bout of very heavy rain here with very high winds after it was sunny earlier.  Expecting around 3" of rain here with around 5" on the east end.

5 minutes ago, amarshall said:

The state just preemptively closed some of the shellfish beds for extreme rain on Cape Cod tonight. Is there something I'm missing?  Our threshold is 5" of rain in 24 hrs to prompt a closure. 

The latest RPM is predicting near 5" of rain for the east end of Long Island between now and 11 AM tomorrow.

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Some of it is pure fluke. Like I think both October 23, 2002 and October 23, 2003 were too far south for your area. You probably would have had snow in those since the lower areas around FIT also got snow in those. I think at least the first 2009 event on 10/15-16/09 was also too far south for you. Not sure if you managed anything on 10/18/09 either. I think you whiffed on that too...that was the infamous Patriots October snowstorm...they were playing the Titans at home and they were getting golfball sized parachutes early in the game that dropped a quick 2-3 inches. 

The amazing October 2011 storm will probably always hold the record for October snowstorms.  For us down here, the one the next year in the first week of November, that delivered 8", was our earliest big snow event.  It was Sandy related.

On 10/5/2018 at 11:58 AM, OSUmetstud said:

I'm going 90-91, 94-95, 02-03, 03-04, 04-05, 06-07, 14-15 for my winter analogs. I don't like anything with negative Naos in the means. Even so, there's a fairly large amount of variation across the data set from winter to winter. 

-Nick

Four of those winters were great- neg NAO or not- and two were historic!

The winters lately have been EPO driven anyway.

On 10/5/2018 at 1:43 PM, OSUmetstud said:

I think there's pretty good evidence of an overall positive NAO (it doesn't mean there can't be bouts of negative.) You can use similar rationale to throw out the blockbusters of the 60s and 70s Ninos given the difference of the atmosphere and climo. 

You can look at a season like maybe 86-87 or 94-95 to see evidence of lackluster Atlantic blocking during weak Ninos. 

I don't think any of us are experts on the subject per say...its mostly a stab in the dark. 

What about 2015-16, a weaker el nino version would be colder.

On 10/7/2018 at 6:25 AM, moneypitmike said:

Man, those SST's are going to be causing some early season angst amongst the coastal plain.

I think warmer than normal SST are actually good along the coastal plain as they create bombogenesis and attract colder air from the continent down to the coast.

On 10/7/2018 at 11:30 AM, weathafella said:

He’s got his area jacking...lol.

He always does lol

On 10/7/2018 at 11:43 AM, Typhoon Tip said:

Heh...it's an entirely subjective-guided question, but, if winter was all contained inside one mega historic bomb ...say a once in a life time deal that reached exotic depths, with perfect 'snow machine' kinematics ... where the -5 SD cyclone Fuji'ed around the U/L and pummeled repeatedly across three days...  such that Worcester got 48" and Boston got 30 ... even though (hypothetically) it didn't snow at any other time that winter season, would that be fairly construed as a ratter ?

ah... heh. I love challenging "sentiment rules"

One storm can destroy a snowfall forecast we had well above snowfall in 2015-16 here but 75% of it was from one storm lol.

On 10/7/2018 at 11:49 AM, WxWatcher007 said:

I pretty much lived that season in DC. 2015-16. 

It’s a ratter.

It depends on where you were, loved it here, got a historic 30"+ snowstorm in less than 24 hours in January after a historically warm December and February had some snow events also right around the super bowl and a week after- ended up with over 40" of seasonal snowfall with average winter temp around 40 degrees.

On 10/8/2018 at 7:03 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah. Ice storms are really just a synonym for transition events even if it really shouldn't be used as a synonym. It's kind of analogous to the old "wintry mix" forecasts. How often did anyone actually have a wintry mix of multiple precip type for most than an hour or two? Usually not often at all but when they forecasted it, it usually was a SWFE that started as a thump of a few inches of snow, then sleet, and eventually ZR (and rain along the coast) before ending. We didn't normally have like 5 hours of sleet/snow/ZR mix. 

I can only remember a handful of storms that actually had a mixed ptype that lasted for hours and hours on end....Vday 2007 is one of them, Jan 23-24, 2017 was another (ORH hills had this little microclimate in that east flow storm that kept a prolonged sleet/snow mix). There's been a few others obviously but then bottom line is that prolonged mixed precip usually doesn't happen. 

Jan 1994 had my favorite ice storm- if there can ever be such a thing- only because it was so historic to have over 2 inches of pure ice on top of a layer of 1-2 inches of sleet which was on top of 2-3 inches of snow from previous storms.  In some places it was heavy freezing rain all night with temps in the single digits!  The trees looked like they were made of crystal the next morning- luckily it was a Saturday morning!

On 10/8/2018 at 7:17 PM, Ginx snewx said:

I will forever hate Vday 07 and 6 to 8 inches of the heaviest sleet snow graupel I have ever shoveled. But it was incredible

and that winter is being used as an analog   We had another bad one the same winter, near St Paddy's Day 2007, 5 inches of pure sleet lol

16 hours ago, powderfreak said:

This summer did humidity on a next level and it's hilarious there are spots in New England still getting to 70F dews in October.  Dews the past two days have been higher than the normal average high temp up here.

You dont want to know how bad it was here lol..... our latest 70 degree min Oct 10, beat 2015's record by a day.  But the most ridiculous one was 42 days with a dew point of 75+ beating the previous record by double!

19 hours ago, tamarack said:

Failed to drop below 60 this morning.  My latest 60+ minimum is Sept. 26, with 61 both last year and in 2007 (both had 84 max, too), and with the BD moving thru WVL as we speak, that mark will stand.

You aren't wrong. ORH has had 8 October events with measurable snow since 2000

That's 3 more than at my place.  I guess in October, elevation trumps latitude. 

We broke our record from 2015 with our latest 70 min on Oct 10 this year.  Also had 42 days with a dew point of 75+ which is twice our previous record- ridiculous!

17 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I hope PAM saved the obs on the battery back up and that the anemometer didn't just fail altogether. 

When are we going to have anenometers built to withstand up to 200mph winds?  It's frustrating having instruments fail during our most extreme events, the ones that need to be recorded the most!

It was sunny here this morning and then it got really windy and overcast and now we're having hard tropical downpours! Can't see a thing outside.