LibertyBell
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Posts posted by LibertyBell
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1 hour ago, sferic said:
I witnessed both and here in Liberty NY on 5.9.20 we had .5 of snow; barely a trace on Long Island
@uncle W do you have a source where I can browse through in an easy way record high/Low temps and snow for each day of the year for Syracuse NY?
Thanks !
a trace of snow on long island in May is like winning the world series lol.
Since you were in Lynbrook and I was away in the Poconos were there two small periods of flurries and nothing stuck and did it get down to 32? Or 34?
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44 minutes ago, jm1220 said:
We can use the rain. I’ll gladly take it. Rain now means less brown turf in June/July and when we’re largely hoping for wayward T-storms to get most of our rain.
I no longer believe we'll get a hot summer like I thought we would before, and that volcano in the Caribbean is the reason why.
We might have one hot month, July, with about a 3 day window for extreme heat (100?) but I no longer believe the summer will be hot like an 11 yr cycle summer. Might be the 1977 variety, which was similar to what I just outlined.
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4 hours ago, sferic said:
Up here in Liberty NY a half inch of snow is likely overnight into the early hours of May 1st
Looks like snow will get to the Poconos
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at 8 PM I was watching PBS
a new series
Greta Thunberg
she must be the smartest human on the planet
no one is even close
at 16 in 2019 she was doing a speech off the top of her head to the entire world
and everyone was transfixed with her because she is smarter than any political leadersaw the presidential address after that
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saw the presidential address after that
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While the summit attendees sent a clear signal that coal is on the way out, they were far more lukewarm on another major contributor to climate change: natural gas. To hit the world’s 1.5 degree Celsius target, we’ll have to rein in methane, a type of greenhouse gas that is especially effective at trapping heat in the atmosphere and dangerous for global warming. While methane can come from a variety of sources, such as agriculture and landfills, environmentalists see regulating the oil and gas sector as the first place to start, by keeping the gas in the ground.
Yet the industry seemed to get a pass at the summit — most leaders sidestepped methane and natural gas entirely in their speeches and announcements. Surprisingly, it was Russian President Vladimir Putin who drew the most attention to methane but stopped short of offering concrete commitments to halt plans to build natural gas pipelines. The less focus from world leaders on the oil and gas industry’s methane problems, the better, from the eyes of the industry, because it signals that there won’t be more regulation coming anytime soon.
In the US, addressing methane is critical to meet Biden’s goal of slashing greenhouse pollution by 2030, but Biden has only offered a few clues for how his administration plans to tackle it. The fact sheet from the White House on Biden’s target only gives methane a brief and vague mention, saying, “The United States will also reduce non-CO2 greenhouse gases, including methane, hydrofluorocarbons, and other potent short-lived climate pollutants.” The nonprofit Clean Air Task Force has urged the US to adopt a target of reducing oil and gas emissions to 65 percent below its 2012 levels by 2025.
Regulation in the US is still coming. Biden’s new EPA administrator Michael Regan promised the administration will roll out more aggressive policies to curb existing and new natural gas methane leaks than the Obama administration and plans to unveil its plans sometime by September.
But the overall silence at the summit still signals that the world is not yet ready to ditch natural gas as quickly as it plans to ditch coal. —RL
Loser: The goal to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius
The 2015 Paris climate agreement has a topline goal of limiting the increase in global average temperatures this century to below 2 degrees Celsius, but it also has a secondary, more ambitious target of keeping warming below 1.5°C.
Back in 2018, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change put out a major report looking at just how hard it would be to meet the 1.5°C target. It found that every degree of warming matters, with higher temperatures extracting a higher human and economic toll. The report concluded that to reach this goal, the world has until 2030 to slash greenhouse gas emissions by half or more from present.
And 1.5°C is hardly a “safe” climate. The world has already warmed by at least 1°C on average, and the effects have been devastating. The longer the world waits to act to limit emissions, the harder it will get.
The new US climate target — a 50 to 52 percent cut in emissions relative to 2005 by 2030 — “looks like it is consistent” with the 1.5°C goal, according to a senior White House official on a call with reporters on Wednesday. But according to Climate Action Tracker, a US commitment in line with this target would actually need a 57 to 63 percent cut.
Many other countries have also said they are using 1.5°C as their benchmark for their climate commitments. Rhetorically, it seems there is widespread support for being more ambitious. However, it’s clear there’s a cavernous rift between commitments and actions. Global greenhouse gas emissions have only grown since the 2018 IPCC report. While there was a lull in this growth last year due to the Covid-19 pandemic, emissions are poised to rebound around the world, including in the US, as economies reopen.
So now the world has to make even more drastic cuts to greenhouse gases — and in less time. It’s easy to paint a target years into the future. It’s much harder to take aim today. And right now, that target is nowhere in our sights
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16 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:
I don’t know all of the specifics about that machine. For starters, though, Mars has a vastly higher concentration of CO2 in its atmosphere then a the Earth. On Mars, the atmosphere is 95% carbon dioxide. On Earth, it is a trace gas (about 0.04% of the atmosphere). The technical challenges involved with removing CO2 from Earth’s atmosphere are likely much greater than they are on Mars. I expect that such technology will be improved, though, carbon dioxide removal might eventually become feasible on a meaningful scale at some point in the future.
I saw something today that made me really sad...... the "What could have been" kind of sad.
It was a documentary on Jimmy Carter and how he was way ahead of the game when it came to climate change and renewable energy.
He was the one who had solar panels put on the White House.
He also had the framework for an early version of what became the Paris Climate Treaty.
What could have been indeed...... at a time when we should've been making those changes already.
If Jimmy Carter had had a second term, all of this would've become reality far sooner.
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1 hour ago, bluewave said:
Even Long Island should make it to at least 60° today. But as usual, Newark is the warm spot. Already 56° there with another 5 hours of warming to come. So mid 60s look like a good bet there.
Newark Liberty MOSUNNY 56 21 25 W15G31
But with a dry wind doesn't that mean land breeze? There should be no sea breeze here today.
I really wish we could artificially heat up the near coastal waters, temps in the 40s are absolutely offensive right now.
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31 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said:
i am not sure why anyone bothers talking about any baseball teams aside from the Baltimore Orioles, who, i will remind all of you, are America's greatest team
I used to think they were baseball's oldest franchise, but then I found out there have been several different Baltimore Orioles franchises (in both leagues!) Is this the only name that keeps getting recycled? I wonder why?
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27 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:
I hope that when COP26 is held in November, China and India will provide more specifics and more ambitious targets. I also hope that the U.S. will come forth with a detailed action plan on how it would achieve its committed reduction and what enforcement mechanism e.g., carbon pricing, would be deployed to assure that it can meet its long-term goal. Shorter-term benchmarks along the way would also be helpful in adding credibility.
One thing I'm confused about Don, and maybe you could shed some light on this. NASA has just deployed a machine on Mars that is converting CO2 in its atmosphere to O2 (like plants do), why can't we scale that up and do that right here at home?
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7 minutes ago, uncle W said:
1962 was the first April I experienced 90 degrees in April...May 1962 has the warmest temperature with 99 on the 19th...I has baseball practice that day...that year was hot until the second half of July when a switch was turned on for colder than normal that lasted thru the fall and winter...in May of 1969 I played softball for a team in the broadway show league as a ringer...We played CBS news with Jim Jensen pitching and I got two hits off him...It was 97 that day and as I was rounding the bases after hitting a bad hop homer he said conserve your energy...at 20 years old I had energy to spare...Now I have very little...
that sounds like an amazing time (50s and 60s), I noticed there were quite a few 100s back then in June, too, something we haven't seen since.
NYC had three great baseball teams until the late 50s.....
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15 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:
The summit was a start. It was useful in that it demonstrated that the U.S. is returning to the global effort to address climate change and that it will be working with other countries in that process. At COP26, it will be important that the U.S. and others provide concrete commitments. Even today's U.S. goal is lacking specifics on how it will arrive there, what measures will be used to assess progress, and what enforcement mechanisms might be used to ensure that the goal is attained.
I see China and India seem to be holding back, we really need to get them on board.
I like the idea of rooftop solar, TWC has been doing a series all week about sustainability and it seems like it's taking hold even in northern states like Maine. It can work anywhere!
The movie 2040 is amazing, a glimpse into a far more hopeful future......everyone should watch this:
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3 hours ago, bluewave said:
Another day with a big diurnal temperature range. Our high temperatures usually beat guidance with such low dewpoints and humidity. MOS numbers have mid 60s today in the warm spots. So maybe somebody can get close to 70°.
KEWR GFS MOS GUIDANCE 4/23/2021 0600 UTC DT /APR 23 /APR 24 /APR 25 / HR 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 00 06 X/N 65 46 68 51 63 TMP 42 53 62 65 62 56 51 48 53 63 66 65 62 57 54 53 54 56 60 56 49 DPT 22 18 17 19 23 29 31 32 35 33 32 34 36 40 43 44 45 45 45 38 33
I think this kind of consistent low dew point heat is a great sign for the summer
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14 hours ago, uncle W said:
NYC only went down to 34 in May of last year...32 on October 31st...1976 had a short season with mid 20's the second week in April and upper 20's near the end of October...
wow 1976 must've been unimaginably cold compared to today's standards.....funny thing is they had the three straight 90s in April just like 2002 did. What was JFK's lowest last May? I can't find it.
This cold is much less prominent, only got down to 36 (still beat the 37 record from 2013)
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15 hours ago, uncle W said:
the new 30 year April average temperature is 53.3...1991-2020...as of today NYC is averaging 53.1 for April...I think the ends up a little above the average...
1991-2000.....52.9
2001-2010.....53.6
2011-2020.....53.5
4/1-22/21......53.1
in the 90s and 00s, we had a lot more of those amazing nice and warm April days (1990, 1991, 2002, 2010 especially)
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38 minutes ago, uncle W said:
what about the late season cold spells before climate change?...there were many more than now...
yeah unfortunately, although I dont remember this many in the 90s or the 00s.....we did have the odd super cool and rainy spring and summer following the Pinatubo eruption though. We're just getting all kinds of crazy extremes much more now and my nose isn't happy.
I put my heat at 80 today and it all went away.
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What's the shortest time and distance our region has gone from severe weather to snow? I remember something similar to this happening in May 1996....around the 12-13-14 I think.
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8 hours ago, forkyfork said:
my allergies are raging
it's because of that wind.....why can't climate change get rid of these weird late season cold outbreaks that serve no useful purpose?
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4 minutes ago, Jonger said:
We need advancement....and currently the private market is almost exclusively driving the advancement. Elon Musk is single handedly the world leader in speeding this process up.
We can't just stop fossil fuels cold turkey. There needs to be a way to remove co2 from the atmosphere.
I figure companies like Volkswagen, Nissan, GM, Ford, etc. will pick up the slack (they already have nice electric/hybrid lineups.)
We really should be expanding on use of nuclear too, that will pick up a lot of the slack.
One thing about removing CO2 I was wondering about....okay so today, this very day, NASA reported success of that machine they put on Mars that converts CO2 to O2, just like plants do. Why can't that be scaled up and be used here to convert CO2 to oxygen just like what we're doing on Mars?
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10 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:
90F potential in the works given how temps tend to overperform?
I wonder if the early heat is a sign of really hot summer.
Looks like it will only get to 70 here?
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9 hours ago, uncle W said:
last May NYC had temps in the 30's for the first time since 1978...then in October NYC had a temp of 32 for the first time since 1988...I would not be surprised if NYC gets into the 30's again before Summer...
wasn't that the shortest freeze free period we've had?
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10 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:
2020’s last 30s occurred on May 10 at JFK and NYC and May 9 at LGA. There was a trace of snow at all three sites on May 9 (the changeover of the rain occurred after 1 am; the afternoon saw additional snow showers and a minor snow squall in parts of the region).
So there were two separate bouts of snow, one was after the changeover, and the other was later the following day during snow showers and squalls? Did any of these sites report a coating or was it all nonaccumulating brief snow showers, Don? Did the temps drop at NYC or JFK to lower than what we had this morning?
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1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:
This summit is another welcome step demonstrating that the United States has begun to re-engage with the world. The U.S. strategic position was weakened badly from four years of chaotic and demoralizing disengagement.
When it comes to addressing the great challenge of climate change, global cooperation is imperative. Climate change and its consequences are not confined within national boundaries.
Here's the problem.....the Paris accord is not nearly enough. It's not even a half measure, it's a quarter measure. We must apply strong pressure to get all nations to set quicker timelines for the end of fossil fuel consumption.
Talk is cheap.
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7 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:
Yesterday into today, a storm brought daily record snowfall to parts of the Midwest into upstate New York. Accumulations included:
Buffalo: 4.8"
Detroit: 3.5"
Hambden, OH: 8.0"
Indianapolis: 2.0" (biggest April 20th or later snowstorm since May 2, 1897 and 2nd biggest overall)
Kansas City: 3.5" (biggest snowstorm April 9th or later)
Louisville: 1.8" (only the 3rd measurable snowfall on record on or after April 20th and biggest snowstorm April 9th or later)
Toledo: 5.2"
Wyandotte, MI: 4.4"Ohio's Cuyahoga and Geauga Counties saw numerous locations pick up 6" or more of snow.
That storm was responsible for bringing a strong cold front across the region this afternoon. In its wake, temperatures have fallen rapidly.
The temperature will fall well into the 30s in New York City tomorrow morning and may again fall into the upper 30s on Friday morning. This will likely be the last time(s) the temperature falls into the 30s in Central Park until next fall.
April will likely close with much above normal temperatures. The guidance has now moved into good agreement that the month will close with highs generally in the 70s. The potential for an 80° reading as far north as New York City exists.
This outcome would be consistent with the MJO's having moved through Phase 6 at a very high amplitude during the April 1-15 period. Since 1974, there were 7 cases where the MJO reached Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above during April 5-15, as was the case this year. Only 1981 had an April 20-30 maximum temperature below 80° (75°). The average highest figure for such cases was 81.3°. The MJO's ongoing passage through Phase 7 at a very high amplitude is consistent with an outcome that typically yields 1-2 80° days.
The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around April 14. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.33°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.47°C. Neutral-cool ENSO conditions are now developing. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely be in place by the end of spring.
The SOI was +8.29 today.
The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.256 today.
On April 19 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 2.119 (RMM). The April 18-adjusted amplitude was 1.932 (RMM).
Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 80% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April. April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 54.2° (1.2° above normal).
Too bad no more 30s like we had last May. Don, when was the last 30s last year, was it May 10th, and how low did we get in NYC and JFK, 36-38? I think both had a T of snow too, on Friday and Saturday?
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Please keep in mind seeing a wall cloud or even a funnel doesn't mean it was tornadic, the funnel needs to actually touch the ground for it to be tornadic.
May 2021
in New York City Metro
Posted
weird to see this happen in 1966 and 1977 two of our hot 11 yr summers and 1966 being the hottest until 2010...did it snow in May 1966?