LibertyBell
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4 hours ago, Ericjcrash said:
NYC averaging nearly 35" annually since 2000 in the times of the torch. The 2011 storm was a fluke that is all IMO. The Atlantic was still warm in October in that era too.
Yeah but if you go decade by decade starting from 1870 I believe NYC averaged 30"+ every decade for 5 decades and the temperatures back then were like 5 degrees colder on average in the winter than they are now. Going back to the early part of the nineteenth century NYC used to have consistent snowcover from November thru March.
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11 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:
A few days ago you had a slower timed system which would have allowed the high to the North to get into better position and drive some cold air in on the NW side. The faster timing along with the less phased solution led to a weaker storm evolution and overall less impactful system than first thought. With that being said, this should still be a pretty solid system with a heavy wind driven rain for several hours.
Yea, I'm still going to enjoy this storm, just not enthused by the idea of heavy rain occurring at night and drizzle during the day lol. Same goes with snow.... I like to see the heaviest precip timed with daylight hours and also with the highest winds.
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53 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:
It's not. The storm is a quick mover and not completely organized due to multiple pieces of energy interfering with each other instead of a single consolidated phase.
Oh that's probably why it's relatively weak (forecast to be around 999 mb). The high winds are going to be from a combo of the storm plus high pressure to the NE.
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Technically you can consider that 17.5" of snow since sleet is actually measured as snow (the two measurements are combined) but it does look like most of this was sleet.
Looked up some other February 1920 stuff to help us paint a picture of what was going on in the first week of that month.
http://www.glenallenweather.com/upload/history/dailyevents/feb.htm
FEBRUARY
01STAtmospheric pressure builds over New England to extreme levels. Barometer in Portland, Maine reads 31.09 inches of mercury (1053 mb), the highest February sea-level pressure ever recorded in the Eastern US. Hartford, Connecticut hits 31.06 inches of mercury (1051 mb). The Eastern US record was set the previous day (January 31, 1920) in Northfield VT at 31.14 in, though it was the same air mass. The mercury dropped to -45° at Pittsburg, NH. The City data comes from Christopher Burt's list of extreme pressures for US Cities
1920
February third to the fifth of the month Washington, DC received 61 hours of sleet that totaled 5.0 inches. (Ref. Washington Weather Records - KDCA)
February third to the fifth of the month Richmond, VA had 4.78 inches of liquid equivalent and 1.5 inches of frozen precipitation. February of 1920 in Richmond, Virginia (as of 2010) is the wettest February on record with 6.67 inches.
(Ref. Richmond Weather Records - KRIC)1920
An intense nor'easter dumped 17.5 inches of snow on New York City, NY. The storm was accompanied by extremely high tides from strong northeast winds and a full moon. Many structures along the shore on Coney Island, Manhattan Beach and Brighton Beach, NY were destroyed by the waves. Flamethrowers were used to clear the huge snow banks on city streets.
(Ref. Wilson Wx. History)1920
A 4-day ice, sleet and snowstorm over New England and southeastern New York came to an end after dumping as much as 15 to 20 inches of frozen precipitation.
(Ref. Wilson Wx. History)1994
THE GREAT SLEET STORM OF FEBRUARY 10-11 1994
This winter storm was most unique in that produced almost entirely sleet for the immediate DC metro area. To the north, heavy snow fell and to the south and east, freezing rain occurred producing a devastating ice storm. In the Washington area, the sleet accumulation averaged between 3 to 4 inches. The maximum sleet accumulation occurred over Central and western Fairfax County, with over 4 inches of sleet measured at several locations. Only two other sleet storms in Washington's history have compared to this storm-one occurred in 1920 and the other in 1927. The average sleet depth for the 1927 storm was 4.5 inches. Washington was lucky it was sleet and not a glaze as they received south of DC. In areas to the south where the ice storm (glaze) occurred there were some areas without electricity for nearly a month and most had no power for a week.
(p. 95-96 Washington Weather Book 2002 by Ambrose, Henry, Weiss)
The Northeast was suffering under its 2nd winter storm in 3 days. Newark, NJ picked up 18 inches of snow on top of the foot that had fallen just a few days earlier. 18 inches fell at Newark, NJ & New Bedford and Hyannis, MA. 3 to 4 inches of sleet was reported at and around the Baltimore, MD – Washington, DC area.
(Ref. Wilson Wx. History)
Ref. (NWS Ranking for Storms between 1956 and 2011) This is the 17th Worst Snowstorm -
I decided to look this up and find what I could since I'm a big fan of anomalous events. As a bonus there's a picture of ice encrusted Manhattan during February 2015 lol.
https://thestarryeye.typepad.com/weather/ice/
Today in New York Weather History: February 6
1920
For the third day in a row the City was lashed by snow, sleet, freezing rain and rain (although the temperature got no higher than 33°). Like the previous two days, between five and six inches of snow and ice accumulated, bringing the storm's three-day total to 17 inches (an additional half inch would fall in the wee hours of 2/7). 1.40" of liquid precipitation fell today, bringing the three-day total in Central Park to 4.41".
Today in New York Weather History: February 5
1920
The fierce snow and sleet storm that began yesterday continued unabated today. Winds gusted to 44 mph in the pre-dawn hours and gusts of 25 to 35 mph lashed the area for the rest of the day. Combined with temperatures in the mid-20s throughout the day, the wind chill was only in the single digits. Much of the day's precipitation came in the form of sleet. Like yesterday, close to half a foot of snow/ice accumulated while 1.31" of liquid precipitation was measured. The storm would continue through tomorrow.
Today in New York Weather History: February 4
1920
A nasty winter storm that would last for 72 hours began this morning. Temperatures fell from the low 30s when the first precipitation began falling in the pre-dawn hours into the mid-20s by lunchtime. Winds gusting to 40 mph after 10PM (from out of the northeast) produced wind chills in the single digits. Close to a half foot of snow fell, but much of the day's 1.70" of precipitation fell as sleet and freezing rain. An additional 2.70" in precipitation and another foot of snow would fall in the following two days.
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On 10/24/2018 at 9:06 AM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:
I’d take 20” of sleet.
What's do you prefer- 20" of sleet or 4 feet of snow?
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On 10/24/2018 at 1:49 PM, weathafella said:
I just don’t buy it based on life experience and no stories about the 20 inch sleet storm...
There's a picture Uncle W posted awhile back, I saved it on my old computer that busted over the summer but just going by memory alone it looked like a huge iceberg was covering Brooklyn lol.
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On 10/24/2018 at 12:23 PM, powderfreak said:
It was at a 4:1 ratio based on the liquid he sited. That's probably largely sleet but you also get crystals/snow in the low levels during those sleet storms...could have been a bunch of pixie dust mixed in.
I remember Uncle W found some pictures of the February 1920 event and he posted them (B&W of course), in the pictures it literally looked like Brooklyn had been struck by an iceberg LOL. I mean there was an iceberg in the middle of Brooklyn with a lot of jagged edges sticking out of the ice.
That is the largest liquid equivalent all wintry precipitation event in the history of NYC. There were only two others that were even near 3"- February 1961 and January 2016.
All snow at the standard ratios that would have easily been 4 feet of snow!
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On 10/24/2018 at 10:34 AM, gravitylover said:
You keep forgetting October 2012. That was equally as bad here although I don't think the power was out for as long, maybe 3 days instead of 5+ but that was because we had lost so many big trees just a year before.
October 2012, Sandy. I was referring to a big snow event in October they're really rare for the coast. Up where you are, it's like a 1 in 10 year event to get a snow event in October I would think?
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2 hours ago, purduewx80 said:
agree on the start time and think any heavy rain threat is primarily in the morning, ending by ~10AM. light rain and/or drizzle should continue throughout the day, however.
lapse rates with the incoming dry slot during the morning hours are nothing to sneeze at. forecast soundings show up to 500 j/kg of CAPE at JFK based around 800mb, so some embedded heavy showers appear likely. thunder risk is much higher in the low-level warm sector offshore but believe chances are non-zero around here given the advection of instability on a 50-60KT low level jet.
A lot of our local forecasters are calling for widespread thunderstorms on Saturday. Ch 12 Long Island is going with heavy rain between 9 AM and 3 PM locally up to 3" with 60 MPH winds.
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2 hours ago, Brian5671 said:
12Z NAM-confirms a fast mover and out by mid day as far as the heaviest precip.
Sounds like a positive NAO storm.
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On 10/24/2018 at 11:29 AM, LongBeachSurfFreak said:
I tend to agree in a steady state climate that was a 200-500 year event. But with things being in uncaharted waters anything is possible.
I still think the storm is stronger then currently modeled.
Yes this really is unprecedented in terms of the wild swings in weather we have now. What I find absolutely amazing is with how frigid the 1870-1920 period was, we had zero measurable October snow in that period at Central Park (or at least none that was 1 inch or higher.) So it's pretty mindblowing that in 2011 in October you could get something that you never got during the frigid 1870-1920 period! A period during which NYC consistently averaged over 30 inches of snow!
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On 10/22/2018 at 4:12 PM, bluewave said:
Check out this epic hailstorm and flash flooding in Rome.
Wow how much did they get? Huge hailstones too!
I heard there were tornadoes today out on Cape Cod.
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4 hours ago, Juliancolton said:
I'm connected with a few of you guys on Facebook so some may have already seen it, but I liked this shot from tonight. I've always enjoyed the illusion of having an unobscured view of the end of the rainbow.
Did you find your two pots of gold?! Maybe you won the 1.6 billion dollar megalottery today and will win the 600 million dollar powerball lottery tomorrow lol.
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8 hours ago, qg_omega said:
Saturday evening high tide looks most impacted but like bluewave stated it's about a foot lower than Saturday morning
Saturday morning's is King Tide!
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13 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:
Nobody in the area would have seen snow. Maybe the highest elevations in the Poconos would have gotten flakes and that's about it.
This was always going to be a rain event for everyone unless you go far into Northern New England.
People have got distorted views of October storms because of October 2011 lol. Thats like a one in multihundred year event. Just be glad we're getting to see a strong coastal right now- that bodes well for winter.
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6 hours ago, tamarack said:
75% of average snowfall is pretty bad, 16h of 20 winters here. However, the mid-November powder (7") that kept the ground white into early April was a plus, and we had a decent storm in early January. Beyond that, it was reading about snow to our south.
2015-16 was better to the south too, we had close to 50" of snow after a torch December, and 30"+ of that came in one storm but some other highlights were a couple of storms in early February, right around the super bowl.
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On 10/20/2018 at 9:37 AM, tamarack said:
Late Feb 2010 was another 4-day storm here Feb. 25-26 brought most of our snow while pasting S.VT and the Catskills. Next 2 days brought mainly 33-34° RA/catpaws (on strong NE winds) while NYC got its 21" snowicane at low-mid 20s and the 'Skills got slammed again - some locations there got 4 ft. (There was also a station in the WVA mts that got Catskill-level snow in that event, and also the 2 earlier KU storms, and recorded something like 159" for the month.)
The set up looks very similar except the Feb 2010 storm came in further to the south and west.
I always wondered what March 2001 would have been like had it gone according to some of the earlier forecasts and thats the storm I think it would have been most like.
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11 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:
Yeah it was only really kind of a dud in far NNE...esp up into Maine...though it was frigid there. But elsewhere it was a pretty monster winter. ORH had their 4th snowiest winter on record that season and only 1993-1994 was a colder winter there in the past 3+ decades (for BOS '02-'03 was actually colder than '93-'94 believe it or not and 5th coldest since Logan airport became the site ).
It def gets the reputation as a Mid-Atlantic centric winter but the monster snows were actually spread out much further than just that region.
Even JFK had 50"+ in 2002-03 which is pretty rare lol, they also had 50"+ in 1977-78 but somehow undermeasured the Feb 1978 blizzard to only 14".........it was more like 2 feet there.
Seeing major snow into April in 2002-03 was a lot of fun though!
Baltimore had 50" of snow in February but Boston also had their biggest snowstorm on record in the same month, that was definitely a well-distributed winter. In that respect 1995-96 and 2002-03 stand apart from all the others.
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On 10/20/2018 at 12:39 PM, mreaves said:
That storm still gives me nightmares. Lots of rain here while heavy snow not too far away.
Here's another one for nightmares lol...... back in the 1920s in February NYC had a storm which dropped 20 inches of..................... SLEET!
One can only imagine how much it would be if it were all snow!
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On 10/19/2018 at 7:04 PM, ORH_wxman said:
Yeah it was a very good winter that often gets overshadowed by the following winter.
Both of those late '70s ninos had very cold decembers. We will have to see if we can get back on the cold December Niño train this season. Last time we did it was dec 2009. Both December 2014 and 2015 were furnaces...2015 was the worst. It was actually more like a slightly above average November. Thankfully though that was a super Niño and we don't have that. But I still worry about a dec '14 or dec '94 happening.
1994-95 was horrendous and the only reason we forget it is because it was sandwiched by two of the greatest winters of all time lol.
About December 2014, would you take that if you knew you would get what we had from the middle of January through the middle of March?
/OT
lol at the Yankees suck and Arod sucks chants during the post game after the first game of the world series, they are muting like half the broadcast lmao. Even Papi is laughing because they are basically serenading him and demonizing Arod lmao
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On 10/21/2018 at 1:25 PM, Rjay said:
I think so too. But if you're referring to the Mexico Beach area, it's hard to tell what's storm surge damage vs wind damage. I guess the tree damage??? I saw fully debarked trees.
Yes it looks like major tornado damage down there, it's about as bad as a hurricane can ever get. I was glad to hear that we didn't lose more people.
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6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:
No you had the 100 hour storm year correct. When ray was originally responding to you saying 76-77 was dry, he countered that it was not dry in eastern New England and mentioned it had a lot of late bloomers like 68-69 did. I think that is where the confusion came from. But 76-77 was very active in eastern New England. It had a few smaller late blooming events (aside from the big one on 12/29/76) and also some redeveloping SWFE types where further south mostly got dryslotted or light rain...one such event absolutely crushed north of the pike in January '77.
The snowcover must have lasted a long time with how cold it was from October-January. That was an amazing stretch of weather that lasted a long time, and the sequel winter of 1977-78 was even better.
Countdown to Winter 2018 -2019
in New England
Posted
I remember how nervous people were in 2014-2015 and look how that turned out Jan 20 and later..... Jan 20 seems to be our new "turning point" for winters.