LibertyBell

I have a FAR better idea- let's cut West Virginia out of the United States. It is a useless place and we wont miss it.  Then let them do whatever they want on their own.

5 hours ago, Juliancolton said:

I've come to regret uninstalling earlier this month. Would have really benefited from AC the last several nights.

a/c has been helping me with allergies the last couple of days/nights

3 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

I dunno I kinda like this. Working outside, doing stuff and being comfortable isn't a bad thing and with the price of oil heading north I'd rather not use any if I don't have to.

how do you avoid the mosquitoes and the ragweed? I am spraying for both I want to KILL EVERYTHING

2 hours ago, lee59 said:

These are the average January temperatures since the year 2000:

Caldwell N.J. 30.4

Islip N.Y.         31.5

Newark           32.8

Kennedy          33

Central Park     33.4

LaGuardia         34.1

3 things stick out to me. One, Newark is colder than Central Park, possibly because Central Park daytime highs are higher with no foliage. Two, the heat island affect. You would think Islip would be warmer than Central Park and Newark. Islip has more of an ocean influence but it apparently can't  make up for the highly dense urbanization of the more inland areas like Newark and Central Park. Three, LaGuardia is a degree warmer than Kennedy even though Kennedy has more of an ocean influence which in the winter is a milder influence.

uhm Kennedy and Newark radiate MUCH better than either NYC or LGA, I have seen JFK sometimes be 10 degrees colder for lows than LGA and 5-6 degreed colder than NYC, and I've been 5-6 degrees colder than JFK and I'm 4 miles to its SE.

1 hour ago, Rjay said:

78 today.  Perfect 

Yes perfect for A/C, best thing about A/C is that it reduces my allergies

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Abundant sunshine pushed the mercury into the upper 70s and lower 80s across the region. The temperature at LaGuardia Airport hit 83°, which tied the daily record set in 1956. At Newark, the thermometer topped out at 84°. These will likely be the warmest readings until next spring.

With today's warmth, Newark reached 70° for the 169th time this year. As a result, 2021 is now tied with 1946 and 1994 for the 5th most days on record. Today was also the 114th 80° day at Newark, tying 2021 with 1994 for 2nd highest number.

Through this afternoon, Bismarck has yet to experience its first freeze of the season. As a result, 2021 is now poised to surpass the prior mark for the latest first freeze. That record is October 14, 2008, which was tied yesterday.

Tomorrow will be another very warm day, but some showers and even a thundershower are possible as a strong cold front moves across the region. Behind the frontal passage, readings will return to near normal levels before warmer air returns near the middle of next week.

The MJO has now completed its passage through Phase 5 at a very high amplitude. During the 1991-2020 period, there were 6 cases with passage through Phase 5 with at least three days at an amplitude of 1.500 or above: 1998, 2000, 2004, 2010, 2017, and 2020. There was a strong signal for the second half of October to wind up warmer than normal (83%) cases in the New York City area. However, that signal broke down to a 50-50 split for the first 10 days of November. That hints at possible timing for a pattern transition depending on the pattern evolution and changes in the teleconnections.

Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27".

Following very wet July-September periods, winter (December-February) precipitation has typically been near or below normal. The most recent exception was winter 2018-19.

La Niña conditions have now developed. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around October 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.35°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through at least mid-winter.

The SOI was +21.66 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.788 today.

On October 13 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.689 (RMM). The October 12-adjusted amplitude was 1.936 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 92% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 61.8° (3.9° above normal).

 

You didnt mention JFK's high, it actually seemed hotter today than yesterday

17 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Record SSTs to our east as the NW Atlantic is one of the fastest warming ocean regions in the world. 
 

 

But how come no TC in the entire basin most of this month?

6 hours ago, nyrangers1022 said:

Loving this weather

let's just do some aerial spraying to kill all mosquitoes and ragweed and it's perfect

https://twitter.com/i/events/1449121549286469635

Series of large asteroids to fly past Earth, starting tonight
Several large asteroids will pass closely by Earth in coming weeks, USA Today reports. The first, the 525-foot wide 2021 SM3, will whiz past Earth on October 15 according to NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies. Seven larger asteroids are predicted to pass close by Earth before the end of November, the biggest of which, 2004 UE, has a diameter of 1,246 feet, USA Today reports. At 2.1 million miles, asteroid 1996 VB3, will pass closest to Earth on October 20. Scientists say that, although very close by interstellar standards, none of the asteroids will be visible without a telescope. On October 16, NASA will launch a spacecraft, Lucy, on a 12-year mission to observe eight asteroids in Jupiter’s Trojan asteroid field, CNN and the New York Times report. Keep it here for asteroid action and reaction.

2 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Only the book - had no idea that it was built from his earlier short story.  And thanks for the correct spelling of his name.  

I read the short story and just knew it had to have an extension.....the short story ended on a weird cliffhanger, like something you really wouldn't expect.  Basically it ended where his ship was being boarded by security forces for inspection and it just didn't make any sense to end it there.  I bet he always intended to make it a novel but didn't get around to it for a decade.  And when the book ended, it made me wish for a sequel, thats the main reason why I read the other books, but they weren't like this one.  The trio of writers (one of whom is a noted physicist) did the first book justice, the transition is seamless, as if he had written it himself.

40 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

October  15 and I'm still wearing shorts

LoL

the only things I dont like about this are the mosquitoes and the rag weed.  How much spraying do I need to do to get rid of both?

4 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Lol,  ...or, "Once upon a time, we lived transiently after"

I saw this today.....they are talking about 2500, I think all of this will become reality by 2100!

https://twitter.com/i/events/1449024925105328130

Earth could be ALIEN to humans by 2500
Researchers led from Leeds University modeled the Earth's future climates. They illustrated the changes they predict by 2500 in the worst-case situation. The findings illustrate the importance of modeling beyond 2100, they said.
 

7 hours ago, tamarack said:

Many thanks.  I'll look for those books.
Though Karres is also my favorite of my limited Schmidt works, the other titles I mentioned have about the most fascinating and logically developed exobiology I've read in sci-fi.

Schmitz expanded the original short story into a novel which he published in the mid 60s and won the Nebula award for best sci fi novel in 1967.....is that the one you read or did you read the original short story from the 50s?  I suggest reading the full book first if you only read the short story before moving on to the sequels.

I hope these states go bankrupt

5 hours ago, RippleEffect said:

where's autumn man?

from now on autumn only lasts 30 days- the month of November, or 61 days if December is mild

8 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Newark: 82

JFK: 80

LGA: 79

NYC: 76

I love these downslope days!  Wish we had more of them during the summer.

7 hours ago, uncle W said:

staten island can be 5-10 degrees colder than Central Park under the right conditions...

so can the area around JFK

7 hours ago, Tatamy said:

Belle caused hundreds of thousands of power outages across LI.  

eh those are usually minor, we get those now with a wind gust lol.

Used to it, everyone needs to have generators.

7 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Latest: November 1, 1950.

didnt we have a big triple phaser that month?

5 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs is toying with a big storm sometime at the end of this month

end of October storms have a history of being, well, historic.....

2 hours ago, forkyfork said:

imagine a high of 46

Climatological Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - October 2009
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Date	Temperature				HDD	CDD	Precipitation	New Snow	Snow Depth
	Maximum	Minimum	Average	Departure
Sum	1967	1478	-	-	292	6	5.43	0.0	-
Average	63.5	47.7	55.6	-1.9	-	-	-	-	0.0
Normal	66.0	49.0	57.5	-	253	21	3.79	0.2	-
2009-10-01	58	45	51.5	-11.8	13	0	0.00	0.0	0
2009-10-02	66	43	54.5	-8.4	10	0	0.04	0.0	0
2009-10-03	71	65	68.0	5.5	0	3	0.12	0.0	0
2009-10-04	77	57	67.0	4.9	0	2	0.00	0.0	0
2009-10-05	71	52	61.5	-0.2	3	0	0.00	0.0	0
2009-10-06	69	48	58.5	-2.8	6	0	T	0.0	0
2009-10-07	73	57	65.0	4.1	0	0	0.05	0.0	0
2009-10-08	69	51	60.0	-0.5	5	0	0.00	0.0	0
2009-10-09	73	59	66.0	5.9	0	1	0.02	0.0	0
2009-10-10	67	50	58.5	-1.2	6	0	T	0.0	0
2009-10-11	66	43	54.5	-4.8	10	0	0.00	0.0	0
2009-10-12	54	42	48.0	-10.9	17	0	0.00	0.0	0
2009-10-13	68	46	57.0	-1.5	8	0	0.00	0.0	0
2009-10-14	54	38	46.0	-12.1	19	0	0.00	0.0	0
2009-10-15	47	39	43.0	-14.8	22	0	0.62	0.0	0
2009-10-16	46	38	42.0	-15.4	23	0	0.03	0.0	0
2009-10-17	48	42	45.0	-12.0	20	0	0.11	0.0	0
2009-10-18	47	42	44.5	-12.1	20	0	0.24	0.0	0
2009-10-19	59	37	48.0	-8.3	17	0	0.00	0.0	0
2009-10-20	69	38	53.5	-2.4	11	0	0.00	0.0	0
2009-10-21	70	46	58.0	2.4	7	0	0.00	0.0	0
2009-10-22	77	50	63.5	8.3	1	0	0.00	0.0	0
2009-10-23	63	51	57.0	2.2	8	0	0.36	0.0	0
2009-10-24	72	55	63.5	9.0	1	0	1.83	0.0	0
2009-10-25	65	50	57.5	3.4	7	0	0.00	0.0	0
2009-10-26	61	43	52.0	-1.8	13	0	0.00	0.0	0
2009-10-27	57	45	51.0	-2.4	14	0	0.78	0.0	0
2009-10-28	58	51	54.5	1.4	10	0	1.09	0.0	0
2009-10-29	59	49	54.0	1.2	11	0	0.00	0.0	0
2009-10-30	59	51	55.0	2.6	10	0	0.00	0.0	0
2009-10-31	74	55	64.5	12.4	0	0	0.14	0.0	0

I hate that-- this extended warm summer is really enjoyable outside of the mosquitoes. 

7 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Latest: November 1, 1950.

wow thats amazing- do you remember a very late 86 degrees in late October 1995 also (after October 20th?)

7 hours ago, tamarack said:

Kind of OT:
I had no idea there were sequels to Witches of Karres (which I've read and re-read) and would be interested in authors/titles.  James Schmidt apparently didn't write much - in all my sci-fi, much of which hasn't traveled with our moves, I've seen only 4 of his works.  The other 3 include one novel, Demon Breed (set on a water world) and two short stories (Balanced Ecology, Grandpa), and all 3 include plausible and interlocking ecosystems.

I read Demon Breed and Agent of Vega!  They were good but Witches of Karres was by far my favorite!  The sequels were actually written quite recently (number 4 actually came out during the pandemic), and they are really good.  I've read number 2 and number 3 but not number 4 yet.

The Witches of Karres - Wikipedia

A sequel, The Wizard of Karres, written by Mercedes Lackey, Eric Flint, and Dave Freer, was published by Baen Books in 2004, featuring the same characters as the original novel. The Sorceress of Karres, written by Eric Flint and Dave Freer, was published by Simon & Schuster in 2010 and continues the story with the return of most of the characters.^[2] A third sequel, The Shaman of Karres, written by Eric Flint and Dave Freer, was published by Baen Books in 2020.^[3]

The Wizard of Karres - Wikipedia

11 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Under abundant sunshine, temperatures rose into the upper 70s and even lower 80s across the region. Newark reached 70° for the 168th time this year. As a result, 2021 is now tied with 1986 and 1991 for the 7th most days on record. Today was also the 113th 80° day at Newark, tying 2021 with 1991, 1993, and 2016 for 3rd highest number.  

Through this afternoon, Bismarck has yet to experience its first freeze of the season. The latest first freeze on record occurred on October 14, 2008. That record could be tied by the end of the day and broken tomorrow.

Tomorrow will be an exceptionally warm day. The temperature could approach or reach 80° in many parts of the region. Saturday will be another very warm day, but some showers and even a thundershower are possible as a strong cold front moves across the region. Behind the frontal passage, readings will return to near normal levels.

The MJO is currently passing through Phase 5 at a very high amplitude. During the 1991-2020 period, there were 6 cases with passage through Phase 5 with at least three days at an amplitude of 1.500 or above: 1998, 2000, 2004, 2010, 2017, and 2020. There was a strong signal for the second half of October to wind up warmer than normal (83%) cases in the New York City area. However, that signal broke down to a 50-50 split for the first 10 days of November. That hints at possible timing for a pattern transition depending on the pattern evolution and changes in the teleconnections.

Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27".

Following very wet July-September periods, winter (December-February) precipitation has typically been near or below normal. The most recent exception was winter 2018-19.

La Niña conditions have now developed. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around October 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.35°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through at least mid-winter.

The SOI was +16.89 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.957 today.

On October 12 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.939 (RMM). The October 11-adjusted amplitude was 2.179 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 91% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 61.9° (4.0° above normal).

 

Newark hitting 70 is a very low bar, they didn't hit 80 today like JFK did?  What was the high at JFK and was it the highest in the area?

By the way you mentioned evolution so you reminded me of something I was thinking about.  How do you think human greed, violence, short-sightedness, fear of change and of the future, etc should be curtailed?  Our most primitive section of our brains, the limbic system, and the hypothalamus to be more specific controls these primitive traits.....do you think we should tinker with it to become much more rational and forward thinking?