LibertyBell

wow what the heck was going on in 1906?  well besides the San Francisco earthquake of course...and 1908 was almost as bad!

do you have 90 degree day figures for those years?

2 hours ago, uncle W said:

70 degree minimums in NYC are on the rise...the 1960's averaged 24 such days while the 2010's averaged 47...a wopping 10 more than the second placed 1980's...2020.had 58 making the long term average a little higher...

year total min 70+ consecutive 70+

1930..........26............8

1931..........34............7

1932..........25............6

1933..........33............6

1934..........26............4

1935..........29..........11

1936..........20............4

1937..........28............6

1938..........34..........12

1939..........44..........13.......29.9.........7.7

1940..........24............8

1941..........27............6

1942..........20............4

1943..........30............4

1944..........41..........14

1945..........29............4

1946..........11............3

1947..........30............5

1948..........29............6

1949..........43..........10......32.4........6.4

1950..........13............5

1951..........23............7

1952..........38..........12

1953..........34..........10

1954..........18............5

1955..........45..........13

1956..........20............5

1957..........31............5

1958..........26............4

1959..........46..........10......29.4.......7.3

1960..........20............5

1961..........42............9

1962............8............2

1963..........14............5

1964..........19............4

1965..........17............4

1966..........40..........11

1967..........17............5

1968..........29............6

1969..........33............6......23.9.......5.7

1970..........37..........10

1971..........45............9

1972..........30..........15

1973..........37..........11

1974..........26............3

1975..........23..........12

1976..........24............4

1977..........37............9

1978..........31..........13

1979..........42..........17......33.2......10.3

1980..........52..........22

1981..........39............8

1982..........30..........12

1983..........45..........13

1984..........40..........16

1985..........34............6

1986..........31............4

1987..........32............7

1988..........42..........21

1989..........28............5......37.3.....11.4

1990..........32............8

1991..........31............7

1992..........14............4

1993..........35..........10

1994..........35............9

1995..........39..........18

1996..........22............5

1997..........27............8

1998..........39..........11

1999..........45..........13......31.9.......9.3

2000..........22............4

2001..........30............9

2002..........43............9

2003..........33..........15

2004..........28............6

2005..........60..........14

2006..........41..........15

2007..........35............8

2008..........35............8

2009..........18............5.....34.5.......9.3

2010..........54..........22

2011..........40............9

2012..........47..........10

2013..........51..........19

2014...……33...……..9

2015..........56............9

2016..........51..........16

2017..........44............7.....

2018..........55..........18

2019...…...43...……...7.....47.4.....12.6

2020.........58..........20....

 

1872...…...41...……16

1876..........46..........14

1906..........61..........17

1908..........54..........16

Uncle do you have figures for 90 degree days?  I feel like we had the most during the 90s....

4 hours ago, etudiant said:

striking how LGA has so many more 90* days than NYC.  Is that because the NYC temperature is taken in Central Park, where the greenery tempers the heat?

they decoupled after the 90s

4 hours ago, etudiant said:

You're lucky, I've never found a pigeon nest in the wild, although there must be zillions around here in NYC.

But I am surprised the nest survived the winter, must be in a good spot that makes it worth reusing.

 

I've seen pigeons in the Poconos, they look really out of place there

48 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The increased fraction of flooded area likely included some important and costly infrastructure.

Is the level of sea level rise currently 1 inch per decade, Don?  And expected to accelerate?

1 hour ago, uncle W said:

a rock dove has long hair...nyuk nyuk nyuk...

I miss the 3 stooges!  Curly had the most amazing hair

6 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Temperatures in the northern Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas rose into the 70s and 80s today. Some 90° temperatures were reported. Burlington reached 90° for the second consecutive day and second time this month. Only 10 years saw May record 2 or more 90° temperatures and 9 years saw 2 or more consecutive such temperatures in May. The last time there were 2 or more 90° readings in May and 2 or more consecutive such temperatures was 2020. Syracuse reached 93°.

90° Days for Select Cities (through May 21):

Albany: 0 (2020: 13 days; 5-Year Average: 13.6 days)
Allentown: 0 (2020: 24 days; 5-Year Average: 27.6 days)
Baltimore: 0 (2020: 46 days; 5-Year Average: 44.6 days)
Boston: 0 (2020: 14 days; 5-Year Average: 17.2 days)
Bridgeport: 0 (2020: 11 days; 5-Year Average: 13.4 days)
Burlington: 2 (2020: 20 days; 5-Year Average: 13.0 days)
Harrisburg: 0 (2020: 35 days; 5-Year Average: 30.6 days)
Hartford: 0 (2020: 39 days; 5-Year Average: 29.0 days)
Islip: 0 (2020: 8 days; 5-Year Average: 9.4 days)
New York City-JFK: 0 (2020: 12 days; 5-Year Average: 10.2 days)
New York City-LGA: 0 (2020: 34 days; 5-Year Average: 29.4 days)
New York City-NYC: 0 (2020: 20 days; 5-Year Average: 18.2 days)
Newark: 1 (2020: 31 days; 5-Year Average: 31.2 days)
Philadelphia: 0 (2020: 36 days; 5-Year Average: 34.6 days)
Scranton: 1 (2020: 25 days; 5-Year Average: 16.4 days)
Washington, DC: 1 (2020: 46 days; 5-Year Average: 50.8 days)

New York City-Newark Average: 0 (2020: 22 days)
...Expected: 0 (based on regression equation tied to JFK-LGA-EWR data)
 
In Quebec, daily record high temperatures were set in Montreal: 89° (old record: 87°, 1977) and Trois-Rivières: 84° (old record: 79°, 2012)

Much warmer weather is likely for the weekend. Temperatures will generally reach the upper 80s and lower 90s across much of the region. Exceptions would be coastal areas prone to sea breezes.

The dominant weather story into at least the closing week of May will be the synoptic impact of a strongly to occasionally severely negative PNA. That development will lead to a warmer to perhaps much warmer than normal second half of May. There will likely be additional days on which the temperature will make a run at 90° in parts of the region.

Today, the preliminary value of the PNA was -1.457. The PNA is forecast to remain at or below -1.000 until around May 24. During the May 16-31, 1991-2020 period, the mean temperature was 65.2° in New York City and 67.0° in Philadelphia. When the PNA was -1.000 or below, the average temperature was 67.7° in New York City and 69.3° in Philadelphia.

During the 1991-2020 period, 30% of days in New York City and 41% of days in Philadelphia had high temperatures of 80° or above. During the 1991-2020 period, 15% of days in New York City and 23% of days in Philadelphia had high temperatures of 85° or above. When the PNA was -1.000 or below during that period, 41% of days in New York City and 50% of days in Philadelphia had high temperatures of 80° or above. When the PNA was -1.000 or below during that period, 24% of days in New York City and 35% of days in Philadelphia had high temperatures of 85° or above.

As had been the case with April, the closing week of May could wind up warmer to much warmer than normal. In the four cases where the MJO reached Phase 1 at an amplitude of 2.000 or above in combination with a cool ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly during the May 1-10 period, as occurred this year, three wound up with warmer to much warmer than normal conditions. At New York City, the mean temperature during the closing 7 days of May was 72.7° during those three cases while it was 72.0° at Philadelphia. The 1991-2020 means were 67.9° and 69.7° respectively. Only May 25-31, 2013 (monthly ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly of -1.38°C) was cooler than normal. However, 90° heat arrived on May 29 in Philadelphia and May 30 in New York City during 2013.

The first 7-10 days of June could also start off warmer than normal. The MJO's passage through Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the May 15-25 period coupled with ENSO Region 1+2 temperature anomalies above -1.0°C and below +1.0°C, as has been the case this year, has typically seen warmth in the East during the first 10 days of June. Cooler conditions typically prevailed when the ENSO Region 1+2 anomalies were outside that range.

Neutral ENSO conditions have now developed. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around May 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.75°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.38°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into at least mid-summer.

The SOI was +0.86 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.024 today.

On May 19 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.914 (RMM). The May 18-adjusted amplitude was 1.703 (RMM).

In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 84% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 64.7° (1.5° above normal).

 

Scranton hit 90 before Philly or Allentown?  Thats amazing- how? lol    I think they touched 90 yesterday?  What about Mt Pocono, Don?

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

It’s been tough to bet against the greatest 500mb height anomalies setting up over New England since 2018. The stronger ridging to our NE has allowed for higher dewpoints and  more onshore flow. If you want more westerly flow dry heat events like 2010 to 2013, then the best 500 mb anomalies need to be over the Great Lakes. 

 

 

I thought with the extended dry period we've had that would make the inland high more likely?  What's been causing the high to set up over new england anyway?

On 5/19/2021 at 8:15 PM, SACRUS said:

First 90s of the season, more to come Sunday

 

5/19

EWR: 91
ACY: 89
PHL: 89
New Brnswck: 88
TEB: 87
TTN: 87
BLM: 87
NYC: 86
JFK: 86
LGA: 86
ISP: 85

Maybe Saturday too.....

On 5/19/2021 at 10:58 AM, Will - Rutgers said:

there's a rock dove at work who made its nest right above a doorway, i saw this morning one of the eggs had fallen out and cracked, very sad.

whats the difference between a rock dove and the regular pigeons we see

Just now, doncat said:

I believe a wind off the ocean would help the air quality...I'm usually fine when it comes to allergies but my wife is bothered quite a bit.

For some reason I have no allergies on a west or northwest wind, it's when the humidity goes up that I have problems with them.

10 hours ago, bluewave said:

If the long range guidance is correct, then the humidity will probably increase as we head into June. So this is when we could start to see better chances for rain again. The record breaking ridge just to our west is acting as a block. EPS lifts the ridge axis north to near the Canadian Maritimes to start June. This is where the ridge axis was for the last 3 summers with the warm and moist onshore flow. So it will be interesting to see if we can make it 4 in a row.

EPS May 31- June 7 forecast 

 

No that is exactly what we DONT want.  What will it take to get a nice ridge set up like July 1993 and July 2010?  I want pure heat not taint with humidity.  I dont care about June since we dont see 100 in June, but July needs to be like it is right now.

20 hours ago, Dark Star said:

Too much rain - global warming.  Too little rain - global warming...

I like the too little rain, 70% of the world is covered in water, use it....

7 hours ago, SACRUS said:

Monday looks more like 60s sandwched between 90s on sunday and 80s by tuesday.

90s Saturday and Sunday and again on Wednesday?  Maybe even 95 on one or more of those days?

6 hours ago, bluewave said:

Detroit was very close to the all-time May 500 mb height record this morning. Had we seen this anomalous a ridge during the summer, it would probably mean temperatures approaching or exceeding 100° In the Northeast. So it will be interesting to see if Newark can sneak in at least 95° max this month.

 

 

We're all going to exceed 100 in July, finally getting a baker of a summer which I haven't seen in years!

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Second May in a row up at BTV with a top three warmest monthly maximum temperature. 
 

RECORD REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
135 AM EDT FRI MAY 21 2021

...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT BURLINGTON VT...

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 92 WAS SET AT BURLINGTON VT YESTERDAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 91 SET IN 1975.

 

Time Series Summary for Burlington Area, VT (ThreadEx) - Month of May
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Highest Max Temperature	Missing Count
1	2020	95	0
2	2017	93	0
-	1977	93	0
3	2021	92	11
-	2010	92	0
-	1987	92	0
-	1979	92	0
-	1978	92	0
-	1929	92	0
-	1911	92	0

I'm betting we see our first 100 since 2013- finally a REAL SUMMER!  Hasn't happened in years.

1 hour ago, doncat said:

High of 80° today with the se wind.

ugh is that wind why my allergies are acting up for the first time all year?

18 hours ago, bdgwx said:

This is not just another perspective on climate change. It is factually incorrect in the same way claims of table top cold fusion and n-rays are incorrect. This is egregious enough that it rises to the level of disinformation.

Let me correct some factually incorrect information I heard in this video. Note that this may not be an exhaustive list, but I did my best to spot each misleading, misinformation, or disinformation (most of it) tidbit.

** Disinformation: Nature has produced 97% of the 400 ppm of CO2 in the atmosphere.

Fact: Humans pumped nearly 330 ppm of CO2 into the atmosphere. Of this 330 ppm pumped into the atmosphere nature buffered about 195 ppm for us in the land and ocean leaving 135 ppm in the atmosphere. Humans are responsible for 32% of the CO2 currently in the atmosphere and 100% of the rise from 280 to 415 ppm. And if Mother Nature hadn't lent a helping hand we'd actually be responsible for almost 55% of the 610 ppm that would have occurred had 195 ppm not been buffered. The mistake the commentator in the video makes is that they conflate carbon emission in units of ppm/yr or GtC/yr (4% human, 96% natural) with carbon mass ppm or GtC (without the /yr part). A ~4% increase in inflow flux to the atmosphere with only a ~2% increase in outflow flux over many years will add up rather quickly.  

Sources: Global Carbon Project - Friedlingstein 2020 

** Disinformation: Sea level is not rising by more than 1 mm/yr.

Fact: Sea level is rising by about 3.5 mm/yr now and it has accelerated in recent decades. 

Sources: Dangendorf 2019, and NASA Vital Signs Page, and IPCC SROCC

** Disinformation: Solar activity explains the warming observed today.

Fact: Solar activity peaked in 1958 and has been flat to even declining ever since. This happened during a period when the warming became most acute. Furthermore like all main sequence stars the Sun brightens with age yet the Earth has cooled and even entered into the on-going Quaternary Ice Age since the Eocene Climate Optimum 55 MYA.

Sources: SORCE - Kopp 2011 and NASA Vital Signs Page, and Berkeley Earth, and Gough 1981, and various sources.

** Disinformation: Scientists concluded that CO2 has no warming potential.

Fact: CO2's warming potential was convincingly demonstrated in the 1800's. The first climate models appeared in the 1800's and even CO2's climate sensitivity was first estimated prior to 1900. Even Arrhenius' 1908 calculation (which is said to be quite laborious) of 4C at 2xCO2 is considered be a reasonable prediction even today.

Sources: Tyndall 1861, Arrhenius 1896, Chamberlin 1897, Chamberlin 1899, Arrhenius 1908, Pekeris 1929, Callendar 1938, Callendar 1949, Plass 1956 (a, b, and c), Callendar 1961, Manabe 1961, Manabe 1967, Budyko 1969, Sellers 1969, Charney 1979, Ramanathan 1985, Hansen 1988, Myhre 1998, Schmidt 2010, IPCC AR5 WG1 Sherwood 2020, and the list goes on and on and on. I haven't even scratched the surface on all of the lines of evidence confirming over and over again that CO2 puts a positive radiative force on the planet.

** Misinformation: A Sun driven cooling period is imminent.

Fact: Not even a solar grand minimum will reverse global warming. The current Earth Energy Imbalance is +0.8 W/m^2. A solar grand minimum might put about -0.3 W/m^2 of force on the planet. Cumulative CO2 forcing alone is +2.0 W/m^2 with another +1.7 W/m^2 expected if concentrations hit 560 ppm. There have been a few sun driven cooling prediction in the last few decades. Obviously none of them panned out. 

Source:  Schuckmann 2020, and Myhre 1998, and Owens 2017, and Anet 2013, and SORCE - Kopp 2011

** Misleading: CO2 levels have been this high in the past.

Fact: Yeah, like more than a million years ago. And note that high CO2 levels in the past were required to offset the lower solar luminosity. 600 MYA the solar forcing was -12 W/m^2 relative to today. CO2 levels would have had to been around 4,000 ppm just to maintain an offset of +12 W/m^2 to balance the lower solar flux. CO2 is an essential piece of the puzzle in solving the faint young Sun problem, the PETM, other hyperthermal events, magnitude of the glacial cycles, etc.

Source: GEOCARB III - Berner 2001 and Gough 1981, and NASA Vital Signs Page

 

 

However thats not to say that all fusion projects are deceptive, ITAR is doing well and the nations who participate in it (most of Europe) believe we'll be able to use fusion as an energy source by 2050

On 5/18/2021 at 11:05 PM, donsutherland1 said:

New study: Approximately $8.1 billion of the damages that resulted from Sandy (2012) can be attributed to rising sea levels on account of anthropogenic climate change. The paper can be found here:

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-22838-1

One thing I dont get is how a 4 inch sea level rise can cause that much damage?

1 hour ago, ForestHillWx said:

LB, you have some really interesting takes on what mankind should seek to exert its control over. 

I'm not talking a complete end to pollination just a reduction by about 50 pct which would bring us back to pre climate change levels....when we could all breathe easier lol.

1 hour ago, Will - Rutgers said:

no no, he's got a point.  listen, if we can waste money on weather.gov's abhorrent new radar pages, we can figure out a way to end global pollination.  my itchy eyes and runny nose depend on this.

yeah besides I'm not talking a complete end to pollination just a reduction by about 50 pct which would bring us back to pre climate change levels.

5 hours ago, doncat said:

Yup had a low of 36° here on the 18th of 83.

interesting year, had our latest snowfall on record in late april and then record heat for most of the summer and in September

19 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said:

i figured water vapor and rainy weather would help wash some of this shit out of the air and off literally every single surface.  there's so much of it this year.

yeah it's horrible when it gets really bad but with water vapor and rain I think it makes the plants go crazy.  At some point we're going to have to come up with some way to block pollination.  The stuff that does this isn't really necessary anyway we should figure out a way to block at least 50% of it.

7 hours ago, Will - Rutgers said:

whatever the weather is just make the pollen stop.  popping so many allergy pills the kids call me Rite Aid.  i think at this point i'll take hot and humid over hot and dry.

the hot and dry is what my allergies nonexistent this year, it's the humid weather that makes it really bad

remember, no allergies in the desert

the desert actually has the cleanest lowest levels of air pollution much lower asthma rates too

8 hours ago, Juliancolton said:

What kind of fence? Rabbits can fit through surprisingly tiny gaps and let none of their meal go to waste

what about an electric fence....I'm about ready to do that to keep deer out.

Good thing we don't live in a place where elephants live, they are SMART.  I saw a doc in which elephants knew how to disable electric fences by repeatedly bashing them with tree trunks and when the electricity was short circuited they would carefully open up the fence and enter......