LibertyBell

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Actually, the opposite is the case.

This system is in the vast minority. 

This will probably/hopefully be upgraded to Cat 5 like Andrew was.....this is like a snowstorm being predicted to drop a foot of snow, dropping 3 feet of snow.

4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

It was a wave number 5 and that gradually reduced to 2 or 3 near landfall, so it was consolidating. It ended up pretty darn symmteric at landfall.

It also looked like the eye was contracting at landfall, though that could also be friction with land.

10 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Really tough to say. If we were any good at predicting those, we'd be much better at intensity forecasts.

It's possible the last bit of strengthening was due to the eye consolidating mesovotices or something along those lines.

I remember that was written about Andrew in its post analysis too and upgrade to Cat 5

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

Unbelievable. I may use this as an avatar someday lol. 

It almost looks like a reverse stadium effect because we are looking at it from the opposite perspective (top down instead of bottom up).

4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

All timer for sure. And with all the data at our fingertips now. 

In your opinion how long would it have kept strengthening had it been over water, before an ERC occurred?  6 hours? 12 hours?  It still strengthened over the marshy land at the water's edge but if it had still been over water it might have strengthened significantly more before the next ERC.

5 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Flying under the radar until the past 36 hours, Michael takes his seat at the table of all timers.

Knabb said there is a 50/50 chance it will be upgraded to Cat 5 post analysis just like Andrew was.

It strengthened some more on the new update- 155 mph and 5 miles NW of Mexico Beach!

3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Officially the highest I've seen is a 130 mph from a 15 m mobile tower in Mexico Beach.

Oh okay I just found out the other one was at elevation.  What's at 4500 ft down there?

5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

May be a situation where if this had another 20 miles of sea surface to cross the wind merely hasn't responded to the pressure nadir -  up to this point this system's been pretty tightly in sync with typical pressure to wind relationship so 919 ....mm one can make a case. 

We'll probably get some post-mortem clarity (maybe) based upon building science - 

Thats what I was saying and might strengthen a bit right as it hits land, some storms tend to do that over marshy land right near the coast.

6 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Where was that?

per TWC/Cantore just offshore some place called "Mexico Beach"

6 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

You could make that argument, and it's not a soft argument either. 

Might be upgraded post landfall like Andrew was.

IMO the standards for a Cat 5 are too high- in the Pacific a 150 mph is considered a "super typhoon"- it should be the same in the Atlantic.  157 mph is just a very odd number to use, I believe in rounding everything in geometric steps (70 mph Cat 1, 90 mph Cat 2, 110 mph Cat 3, 130 mph Cat 4, 150 mph Cat 5.) It would fix the 111 mph Cat 3 problem too, when a 110 mph hurricane falls 1 mph short......

39 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

918 now on the extrap, so maybe 922ish?

177 mph wind recorded just offshore

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

If there no land until NC/VA this might have turned into a Cat 10. 

The ironic thing is there have been no Cat 4 landfalls further north than South Carolina since the 50s.  And no Cat 5 landfalls north of the gulf coast in recorded history.

This might have been a Cat 5 if there was more time to strengthen.

Ray this is going to be a lot stronger than 110 mph at landfall- more like 130 mph

On 10/3/2018 at 7:53 AM, bluewave said:

The continuing record warmth is allowing the 2018 extent to edge closer to October 2007 and 2012.

 

2016 was pretty low too.  This year's is later than any of them though like you said.

9 hours ago, bluewave said:

This delayed freeze-up continues to be very impressive. The record ridging and warmth dropped the extent to the 3rd lowest on record behind 2012 and 2007 for 9-26.

According to that the sea ice extent has been increasingly slightly in the last few days- so the minimum likely wont be in early October?  Is this still the latest we've ever seen the minimum, Chris?

10 hours ago, bluewave said:

Looks like a new positive 500 mb height record for this time of year over that region.

 

 

 

Chris, we've been setting records like this in different parts of the world's oceans for a few years now.  What year had our latest sea ice minimum and does it look like we could break that record this year (with a sea ice minimum as late as October for the first time ever?)

6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I would have to look up the earliest 75 degree dew point. But last October 9th was the latest 70 degree minimum temperature on record at JFK.

That's amazing that all these records are so recent.  One of these years we'll see a day like that in the middle of winter!

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

It looks like October 10, 2017 was the latest 75 degree dew point at JFK.

Thanks, Chris, looks very close to our latest 90 degree day, which was October 10, 2007 I think?  Do you have a number for our earliest 75+ dew point? I would think it wouldn't be any earlier than April, just like the first 90 degree day.  Do you have that graph for 75+ dew point days updated for number 42?

It's been sunny here and feels both hot and is humid and I'm going to turn the AC on lol.  I think tomorrow is the anniversary of Hurricane Gloria.

On 9/3/2018 at 7:32 PM, Jonger said:

Well, a world without access to abundant energy has short lifespans and cyclical starvation problems. The more readily available energy, the more society flourishes.

 

 

The biggest problem is human overpopulation, get the birth rate to 1.5-1.8 worldwide like it is in Europe and we're golden.  Human overpopulation is the biggest factor in CC and most of our other environmental problems.

More education and a better economy will do that.

On 9/3/2018 at 8:27 PM, etudiant said:

Agreed entirely.

Issue is how to produce the energy without messing up the environment. Fossil fuels appear to have problems in that regard.

Nuclear would be good, if the product was more trustworthy, as the waste problem is tiny compared to fossil fuel. However, with 3 major failures in about 25,000 reactor years of operation, people are reluctant to pursue that technology. Wind is too small a source to rely on and solar has not yet out of the teething stage.

We can easily run the entire planet on renewables and we will be doing that by 2050 or so.  Solar, wind, hydro, even supplementary nuclear (dont put reactors on fault lines).

Also, CC does effect places other than the far arctic- there are island nations going underwater because of sea level rise.  As will our coastal regions.  And the greatest time to be alive- maybe- but that doesn't mean there aren't big problems.  Cancer is on the rise as well as conditions like autism, ADHD, etc- from environmental factors like organophosphate pesticides and other toxic pollutants.  Companies like Dow are allowed to exceed safe spraying limits year after year and they are spraying toxic pesticides near schools (and exposure to them by pregnant women results in babies being born who later develop the above conditions.)  And CC and higher humidity levels are causing higher rates of asthma and other breathing problems especially near cities because the levels of smog are much higher than they were before, So Cal just set a record for 82 straight smog days, and all of this has been linked to CC.  Higher number of tropical infections are also connected directly to CC - you dont really want a warmer planet, I have traveled to tropical regions, do you know what kind of horrible parasitical infections occur there?

1 hour ago, Cfa said:

77/75 with breaks of sunshine.

75+ degree dew point #41 at my station.

77/76 at JFK, the #42 75+ dewpoint here.  I wonder what the latest and earliest 75+ dew point days on record are?

https://classic.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-jfk/KJFK/date/2018-9-26

So far about an inch and a quarter of rain between the last two days, most of that fell last night.

45 minutes ago, SRRTA22 said:

We've been getting a bite of summer in the winter lately...what more can you ask for? 

I remember back when I used to sleep with a blanket in late September/early October nearly every year....now more often than not it's with the A/C on.

Basically we had 40s for lows in late September almost every year and lows in the upper 30s in early October and highs in the low 50s for at least a day or two.

8 minutes ago, SRRTA22 said:

Sauteeing them in a butter,garlic, and wine sauce and putting them over a nicely grilled steak

Yum, maybe the sentient ones are cannibals and wont blame us for eating them then lol.