psv88

12 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Although @wdrag does give me hope there could be a surprise here. But definitely not banking on it. It could be easily the other direction-some slush to rain. 

Notwithstanding the models showing us getting a decent event, I’m still skeptical about the BL temps. Still think 2” of slop is our ceiling. 

3 minutes ago, wdrag said:

am done for the night... flushing it for now. 

Thanks Walt. It’s very informative to read your analysis

5 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

If the storm overall’s weaker it will probably be warmer. Easterly winds are warming up the surface from the city on E/S and heavier precip could help overcome the surface warmth but light precip wouldn’t do anything. And the lack of CCB behind the low means cold air won’t come back in with heavier snow. The CCB is a possibility if the mid level lows close off south of us but if not it’ll be minimal if any. 

My thoughts remain the same. Sloppy inch or 2 for us. 

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

I doubt I get more than an inch or two since these CCB are often over modeled and we have to deal with the same lousy E flow coming into the storm. You want to see a closed 500 low southeast of you to know you’re in the game for one. But I’ll be thrilled to get a surprise. 

I think a reasonable call for us is 2” of slop. South shore may not see any accumulation at all. 

1 minute ago, Nibor said:

Difference is proximity to ocean water. 

Euro snow depth and Kuchera should take that into account. 

Just now, WestBabylonWeather said:

I said it before. I’ll say it again. Storm chasing to bayville lol

I think if Bayville does well the whole north shore out to mattituck does well

Just now, forkyfork said:

still above freezing

Shows above freezing up to central Ma. I doubt they go to rain.
 

kuchera and Snow depth show accum for city and coast now. I have no clue what tot expect here. 

1 minute ago, Franklin0529 said:

If this trend continues, the city a coast have a shot at few inches id think right?

It’s looking more interesting that’s for sure. City streets may stay wet. Outer boroughs may be able to get some snow. 
 

very interesting for LI north shore now. Very rough forecast. 1-5”?

1 minute ago, forkyfork said:

this is awful for the coast lol

That’s before hours 69-72 when the CCB tries to develop and pivot through. Show 69-72.

Plenty of storms went from heavy rain to heavy snow in the NYC area lol

Just now, weatherpruf said:

I'll go on record that the coast probably won't go back to snow. At least nothing that will be of significance. Note, that's assuming it even starts as snow....

Agreed. 

14 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

The news is right. It is gonna be a big snowstorm for a region that hasnt had much snow in a long time.

It’s just gonna rain on Long Island and New York City.

CNJ, Metro NJ and CT coast are getting rain as well. 

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I will watch it especially the trailing vort .

You said yesterday the coast is toast. Let it go man. 

18 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gefs still has many members with decent solutions. Eps is still all over also.

Miracle ?

Stop

1 minute ago, RU848789 said:

Yes, but I dislike Kuchera, as it's a lousy algorithm and while it's probably more realistic for this scenario, I prefer knowing how much snow is actually falling (assuming 10:1 ratio) and will do my own analysis of how much of that will likely accumulate, given how many variables there are that Kuchera doesn't take into account, plus some that aren't known well, like intensity.  

Kuchera takes all of that into account. 

3 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

I’ll storm chase to the north shore. Sure 

I remember storm chasing to the barrier islands in February 2010…snow started at the RM causeway 

5 hours ago, bluewave said:

I was in SW Nassau back on LI not far from JFK and only picked up 9”. That storm probably had the greatest rates under that epic 50 DBZ band of any snowstorm in the modern doppler radar era. 

https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/wefo/29/6/waf-d-14-00056_1.xml

Abstract

On 8–9 February 2013, the northeastern United States experienced a historic winter weather event ranking among the top five worst blizzards in the region. Heavy snowfall and blizzard conditions occurred from northern New Jersey, inland to New York, and northward through Maine. Storm-total snow accumulations of 30–61 cm were common, with maximum accumulations up to 102 cm and snowfall rates exceeding 15 cm h⁻¹. Dual-polarization radar measurements collected for this winter event provide valuable insights into storm microphysical processes. In this study, polarimetric data from the Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) in Upton, New York (KOKX), are investigated alongside thermodynamic analyses from the 13-km Rapid Refresh model and surface precipitation type observations from both Meteorological Phenomena Identification Near the Ground (mPING) and the National Weather Service (NWS) Forecast Office in Upton, New York, for interpretation of polarimetric signatures. The storm exhibited unique polarimetric signatures, some of which have never before been documented for a winter system. Reflectivity values were unusually large, reaching magnitudes >50 dBZ in shallow regions of heavy wet snow near the surface. The 0°C transition line was exceptionally distinct in the polarimetric imagery, providing detail that was often unmatched by the numerical model output. Other features include differential attenuation of magnitudes typical of melting hail, depolarization streaks that provide evidence of electrification, nonuniform beamfilling, a “snow flare” signature, and localized downward excursions of the melting-layer bright band collocated with observed transitions in surface precipitation types. In agreement with previous studies, widespread elevated depositional growth layers, located at temperatures near the model-predicted −15°C isotherm, appear to be correlated with increased snowfall and large reflectivity factors Z_H near the surface.

I was living in North central Nassau county for NEMO and we got 13”. Not bad but not the shellacking that central Suffolk got. 

9 minutes ago, Rmine1 said:

We need more than hope. This looks like a pure rain event for us unfortunately 

I wouldn’t say pure rain. You’ll see some flakes. I wouldn’t gas up the snowblower just yet though 

3 minutes ago, snywx said:

Damn CMC goes to town on both events for interior sections. That HP is holding firm for 1/10 event 

Good for the ski resorts. Pile it up!

23 this morning, lots of frost

The city has a bigger problem in marginal storms than the north shore of the island. We’ve seen many marginal storms at 32 throughout and gotten plenty of snow. A nighttime storm with decent rates will work for us, so long as temps are 33 or below. 
 

my thought is that from the southern state parkway north will be good for a sloppy few inches. South of the southern state probably a sloppy inch or so

51 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

If we have easterly winds off the water it’ll warm right up to above where snow can stick if not rain. It’s really about the track of the storm obviously and whether we can hold onto offshore winds. And yes-if it does end up more suppressed there’s the risk the storm is just too weak and it’s too warm anyway. We have a airmass that can work but not ideal. Suppressed would happen with strong confluence or a weakening wave coming east. There’s a possibility we can do okay especially where we are but it’ll take a lot to go right. 

I know I know, just having some fun. This could be a storm where you double my total, every mile NW makes a difference in these setups 

26 now, 4 degrees colder than forecast for this time, bodes well for this weekend I think…

18 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Yes. 
 

but weaker, generally a 3-6 snowfall across the metro 

But initialization looks off?

52 minutes ago, suzook said:

Yes, about 30 miles south 

Oh wow, so like an hour south of the city. Check out Macon, cool town and has the allman brothers museum which I want to get to.