psv88

Just now, HeadInTheClouds said:

So the euro was showing 2 or 3 for me yesterday and the cmc about 8. My forecast is for 6-8. 

The euro was lighter in amounts and the Canadians gave the poconos 2 feet. That’s now off the table. 
 

Canadians had the city and coast getting zero. That changed in one run lol. 
 

Just now, wxman said:

Fair enough but a few of us were saying the rgem was on crack being so far west a few days ago yet it sure seems like the western envelope will prevail here.  

The western envelope had the city getting zero snow and all rain. Is that your call right now?

5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We track low placement from 5 days out and are not concerned with P-Types that early. The Euro and GFS started out very suppressed well Southeast of the Benchmark. So the CMC can shift  60-100 miles east next few runs and still win on storm track. Snow amounts are always the last thing we are concerned about since model skill beyond a few days has always been very low here. 
 

 

No. Snow amounts are the only thing we care about actually. 

5 minutes ago, wxman said:

It's not only about snow.  On that score you are correct. But in terms of placement the RGEM has been as or perhaps more consistent than the Euro.  But the relatively small southeast ticks have resulted in a likely snowier outcome.  

It’s not just about low placement. Models also forecast temperature, wind, dews etc. 

on this forum do we track low placement or snow? If it’s snow then the Euro schooled the other models. 
 

the prosecution rests

6 minutes ago, TWCCraig said:

I remember Stony Brook's MM5!

Expecting 2-4" here on the south shore

That was a great model! 

1 minute ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

The CMC has not shifted 150 miles east. 

Did you see the most recent RGEM move? Last run it gave the city no snow at all. It has been terrible. Give it a rest

3 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

Don't know what models you are looking at but the Euro has been east and weaker and had a significant move west at 06z. The consensus seems to be a low inside the BM and south of LI. The Euro op has shown none of that. It was out there with the nam. 

Go back and look at the model trends. See which showed snow V no snow for city and coast and then circle back. 

Man some of you are either blind or delusional. Maybe because you aren’t following what the models have showed for the coastal areas as much. 
 

you even posted the models that showed snow v no snow for the coast. Which models show no snow now? None…those models all caved and now show snow. This isn’t hard 

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The Euro has been the SE outlier on this event further east than the GEM, GFS. Notice how every model has been NW of the Euro and EPS. The 12 CMC is still closer to the coast. 

Dude the GFS and RGEM were complete rainstorms on the island for days. Also, the Ukie has always been very close to the euro. The NAM is actually southeast of the euro at this point and was never amped up. 
 

the Canadian models have been awful. 
 

I am not sure how anyone can look at this as anything else than a euro win

1 minute ago, BxEngine said:

Ill sacrifice all of rjays snow if everyone else gets 3+. Im a nice guy.

Agreed. His fault for moving to Bermuda 

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Every new East Coast event starts a new record. Since different models do better or worse depending on the storm. Each storm can have one model which does better than others. That being said, it’s just one piece of guidance that gets factored in. Unfortunately, those general model skill scores usually don’t hold for East Coast storms. 

Sure but for any particular storm we can see which models have been consistent and look back at other storms and see that as well. Euro has been locked in and the models trended towards it. Same thing happened last week. 

Tough for @Rjaybut I still think he gets 3-4”. 

8 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Well-hopefully that’s wrong. Does it have a good record? 

No. It stinks. 
 

euro has been locked in for 5 days. 3-6” snowfall across the area. NAM v RGEM as to higher total west v east. 
 

still think are good for 3-4” here

GFS caved to Euro for the most part

12 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

I'll take a combo of Icon/CMC/RGEM/GFS over Euro/Ukie/Nam 

The GFS is not in the RGEM camp 

GFS/Euro/ukie/NAM V RGEM

GFS has slowly trended to the euro and now brings the 6” snow line well east and into Suffolk county. 
 

RGEM is entirely on its own

Everyone will see snow from this…relax people. Even the NAM is a lot of snow for the coast. 
 

the RGEM is really on it own with the super amped system. 
 

it’s coming 

12 minutes ago, EWR757 said:

The 12Z GFS has ~6" of snow for me in Somerset County, NJ beginning Sunday afternoon, about 0.49" water equiv.  The cold air advection begins Saturday evening and as of Sunday morning and beyond the atmosphere is below 0 C.   

I think elevation may play a significant role with precipitation type and accumulation, the GFS just 25 miles east at KEWR is above freezing in the lowest levels most of the event.

I don’t think elevation is a big factor here at all. 

Not sure why people are tossing the euro. Especially when it has support from Ukie

Quite the model spread. 
 

Given the euros record this winter I have to lean on it. GFS has been horrific. Ukie and euro are similar, so I’m thinking 2-4” area wide, few lucky places sniff 6”

yikes. Todays runs will be telling 

Just now, Rjay said:

As of now there's definitely a chance of rain particularly east of I95.  We'll see how it shakes out though over the next 24 hours.  

I’m expecting rain until 3-5 pm Sunday, then transition to snow out here. 

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

yeah and it will snow until 2 am, so it would be really difficult not to get at least 3 inches.

Forecast low Sunday night will be 18 even out here in Suffolk. I really like Upton call for 3”

Even it rains it will transition to snow everywhere Sunday evening. For coast expect 2-4” of snow even out to the twin forks. North and west 3-6” look good. 
 

it’s coming