psv88

23 this morning, lots of frost

The city has a bigger problem in marginal storms than the north shore of the island. We’ve seen many marginal storms at 32 throughout and gotten plenty of snow. A nighttime storm with decent rates will work for us, so long as temps are 33 or below. 
 

my thought is that from the southern state parkway north will be good for a sloppy few inches. South of the southern state probably a sloppy inch or so

51 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

If we have easterly winds off the water it’ll warm right up to above where snow can stick if not rain. It’s really about the track of the storm obviously and whether we can hold onto offshore winds. And yes-if it does end up more suppressed there’s the risk the storm is just too weak and it’s too warm anyway. We have a airmass that can work but not ideal. Suppressed would happen with strong confluence or a weakening wave coming east. There’s a possibility we can do okay especially where we are but it’ll take a lot to go right. 

I know I know, just having some fun. This could be a storm where you double my total, every mile NW makes a difference in these setups 

26 now, 4 degrees colder than forecast for this time, bodes well for this weekend I think…

18 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Yes. 
 

but weaker, generally a 3-6 snowfall across the metro 

But initialization looks off?

52 minutes ago, suzook said:

Yes, about 30 miles south 

Oh wow, so like an hour south of the city. Check out Macon, cool town and has the allman brothers museum which I want to get to. 

54 minutes ago, snywx said:

12z GEFS prob of >4"

Going to be a great storm for you up there. Send us some photos 

15 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

You should hold those thoughts until the S/W is more fully analyzed by the North American RAOB network and the short range models can parse this.  

My thoughts remain the same. East winds for the island when the waters are still in the mid 40s won’t do it. It works for NJ and maybe even the city, but not for the island. In a month it would be a better chance once water temps hit the upper 30s. But an east wind regardless of the exact track spells trouble, unless the storm is suppressed well south in which case we don’t get the QPF. 
 

I do think the island does fine later this winter, but expectations should be kept in check for the island. If I was in NNJ, westchester, etc I would be much more confident of a nice advisory event. 

18 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

It's amazing how the emotions are while tracking a storm. Just the other day many people thought this was going to miss to the south.

Not sure how it’s emotions at all? People are analyzing models and synoptic features. Emotions should never be involved in forecasting weather. Need to be objective and that’s it. Weenies such as yourself are almost never objective so maybe you are referring to yourself. 

Thinking this is a mainly white rain event for the island. Maybe a sloppy inch or so on the north shore and some mangles flakes on the south shore. 
 

we will get our chances later in the winter. 

42 minutes ago, suzook said:

I just moved south of Atlanta off the island. Funny thing down here, is it's been in the mid 20's at night, but warms to the mid 50's during the day. The mid 50's definitely feel a bit warmer though, I guess because the sun does feel a bit stronger. 

I went to college at Emory, which is in Atlanta. That area radiates very well. Are you south of the airport?

35 now. Maybe tonight is the night we freeze 

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Henry Marguisity

 

4-12? Might as well be really bold and call for 1-12”

Still an eternity before this storm to really get invested. I expect the trend of the last 3 years to play out, which is repeated bumps N and W until it rains for everyone and it cuts to Pittsburgh 

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

There's a threat on the board. That's all anyone should be thinking about.

This. I would take an inch at this point 

8 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

Just when we thought we were OUT the GFS pulls us back in !

Nobody ever said it was over. 

5 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Increased water vapor from the volcano combined with cleaner air due to reduced aerosol and sulfur pollution has rapidly accelerated the warming, this is fact and not debatable

Right. The cleaner air was an underestimated source of warming. 

45 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

they will be less affected by AGW than us in terms of cold lows.

 

They don’t have an urban heat island, and they are inland.

What is missing in this discussion is that the days that go below freezing have the potential to be much lower up here than they do down there.

what is alarming is how few days New York City is now going below freezing.

8% of days. really on the cusp of saying this is no longer a winter city if this continues unabated

Looking into 2024, I dont see many night below freezing for CPK thru mid month

We haven’t been below freezing even here in the suburbs in 6 days. Crazy for end of December and it could be another full week…so that would be 2 weeks without a low below freezing outside of the heat island…

Good interview of John Homenuk (earth light) regarding the winter forecast. 

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2023/12/will-it-be-a-white-christmas-will-new-york-ever-get-snow.html

I remember this storm, or the aftermath of it, well. I was coming back from Europe visiting family and remember seeing how there was no snow on the twin forks and how the snow amounts really ramped up as one hit western Suffolk into the city. Was upset to have missed the storm. 

Just now, Terpeast said:

I have posted mine. It’s in the MA forum. 

Great. Go back there and stop harassing Bluewave, one of the best posters in this forum who has been a well respected poster here for many years. 
 

see ya!

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

Oh, to some it does matter. The willingness to put oneself on the line at the risk of getting it wrong earns a lot more respect from me, than always being right about short term lead times. And I don’t think I’m alone in saying this. 

Nobody, especially Bluewave, cares about your metric for respect. Where is your winter forecast? I haven’t seen you post any forecasts at all, which elicits zero respect. 

4 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Yes, bluewave’s accuracy in 1-2 week lead times has been deadly. 

But did he put himself on the line by issuing his own winter outlook? I haven’t seen one.  

Who cares? LR forecasting is a crapshoot and most LR forecasters get it wrong. Your attempts to discredit him won’t work. 
 

His accuracy extends well beyond 1-2 weeks, Try 1-2 months. I ask you. Who has been more accurate than him since November? Name one met/poster.

we will wait. 

Hit 58, record for this date for my location going back 9 years 

57. Helluva way to run a pattern change…