psv88

4 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

Luck you, dropped from 44 this morning to 37 this afternoon.

39 here. We can asterisk your temps now that they are confirmed as 1 degree too low...

3 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

does it show below 0 for central park?

-20

Low of 40, high of 45. 

Helluva way to run a cool down!

46 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

You can move on. No one is stopping you.

Never change. I dont see how you do this storm after storm and never learn. Good luck chasing the ghost bud

3 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

Euro has completely nothing. Even more strung out and positively tilted.

 

GFS-AI and Euro AI show light snowfall for most with moderate totals out east and northeast

CMC has light-moderate snow too. 

 

Which camp do we follow: AI models and CMC? 

or everything else ?

This threat is done. Time to move on. Enjoy the light snows on Saturday.

High today was 47, still 43 now. 
 

deep winter according to some!

46 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

40.1 & 40.2 at my stations, haha. 

Looks like they are a degree too low…

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Bridgeport, Islip, Central Park, JFK Airport, LaGuardia Airport, and White Plains all had highs of 41F (5.0C) today. If that holds, it would be the first time since November 21, 1998 that all six locations had identical high temperatures. 

I also recorded a high of 41. Great day to calibrate those weather stations. 

2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

If the forecast holds the warm up would have lasted 9 days. The 6th through the 14th. 

Not at all. 

The warm up started on 1/4. 

From my point and click. 

1/15 - 43

1/16-34

1/17 - 40

1/18 - 36

Highs 36-43 are within the normal range for mid-January. So if we cool down on 1/19 as currently forecasted, the warm up was 1/4 to 1/18

2 minutes ago, eduggs said:

If he says something incorrect and continues to insist that he is correct, I will challenge it right here. Maybe I'm wrong. Maybe he's wrong. Either way, anybody reading can learn. If I had no respect for him, I would ignore it. People need to know what's true and what's not. 

Again, you are making yourself look foolish. Nobody cares at all. Take it off line. 

The way you challenge comes across as disrespectful. I respect Don immensely, as does everyone else on here. 

Again, take it to DM and move forward. Nobody, and i mean nobody, cares about the equations he uses in his posts. You just come across as a pompous prick. 

Your aggressive and disrespectful posts will drive one of our best posters away from the board. 

22 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Some of us know what a sensitivity analysis is. And for those who do not, your link is helpful. But what you present is not a sensitivity analysis. Or maybe you are withholding most of it, which should include:
- which inputs you used in your analysis
- how they were perturbed
- how the output (mean temp) varied with those perturbations
- ranking of influential variables

The goal of a sensitivity analysis in to determine which variables have the biggest impact on some output... not just what is the most likely output. And if the variables, assumptions, and their tested ranges aren't included, the output is kind of meaningless.
 

Take this to DMs. If you want this information from Don, I am sure he will give it to you. 

Further, show the man some respect. He contributes alot to this board and for many years. Your attitude towards him is not called for. 

Seriously, nobody cares about your picking apart his statistical analysis. You may think it makes you look smart, but it makes you seem like an asshole. This is not a college course, its a weather board. Give it a rest. 

2 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

Most winters have a January thaw. This mild pattern will be 10 to 15 days. 

Colder than average starting the 18th. 

15 day warm up is not a thaw. A thaw is like 3-5 days. 15 days is half the month!

Snow squall and 34, little coating down 

6 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

At this range losing it on a model run then getting it back is pretty normal. Chill. 

This one was never a real threat. A GFS mirage. Let it go…

46 now and bright sunshine. Feels great!

11 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Its not going to be a La Nina come February.

Sorry pal. We had a great December. We’ll probably sneak in a nice event late January and then face a more hostile pattern the rest of winter.

i think the park ends with around 24” of snow. I don’t see it going much more than that 

This thaw has changed the feeling of winter. Feels like it’s going to be seen as a front loaded winter where most of the cold was in December. January seems to be pretty warm until the last week. La Nina’s suck in February so we may just scrape ourselves to an average season. More than that I don’t see

0.67 from the rainstorm. Low of 40 last night. Toasty for mid January 

44 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Yeah….torch.  Not.  

Multiple days in the 50s area wide in mid January is a torch in my book. 

39 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

Currently:

Light rain. 34.5°

Congrats on your colder rain!

I don’t think this is our storm. Too early for us. 

52 now. Summah

51 off a low of 27. Felt nice!

49 and sunny. Wind is back though 

Summer is here. Sunny and 46