psv88

51 off a low of 27. Felt nice!

49 and sunny. Wind is back though 

Summer is here. Sunny and 46

30 minutes ago, Cyg said:

Walking in New Providence right now, seems like a light mist is falling. 

Stay safe!

12 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

I was thinking that for later in January, even if the subtropical jet became a little more active, the tendency would be for the dominant northern stream to result in either phase up too soon with a storm hooking too far to the left or the streams remaining separate too long and a storm being overly suppressed initially. 

WX/PT

That’s the risk every year. Its why it’s rare to have a big snowstorm in NYC

Went down to Huntington harbor today and it was mainly ice free. A few spots close to the shoreline had ice, but last year had more ice at its coldest. 
 

we’ve had many nights in the 20s but none below 10 and only a few in teens. We’ll need a stronger push of arctic air to really freeze the harbor 

9 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

I never said it was. I was disputing that very fact...

He just wants to argue with someone about anything 

34 for the high. Plenty of snow in the shaded and not south facing areas 

It snows everyday now. It’s been quite a start to winter. Cold and 15” of snow by 1/4. With like 8-9 snowfalls. If you like winter weather, you have nothing to complain about 

10 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

I'm of the opinion that I do not believe we ever really truly achieved phase 8 on that first attempt. The signal was shoved there with a turbocharged (due to the events in the strat) CCKW. However that waned as the strat event ended. Plus the falling AAM at the same time attenuated the signal further. Sort of abandoning it. So we didn't exactly get a classic response. The MJO has been disorganized since then and not really much of a factor. CPC MJO desk has mentioned how it's been inactive as of late as well. As such I'm really not trusting any MJO output at this time until something more coherent shows up on multiple cycles. CCKW's and ERW's are the main event in the tropics for now, and that's giving models fits. CPC does mention that if another MJO were to initiate in January, it would likely begin in the west Pacific due to underlying conditions. So if one were to take shape, that's probably not a bad location as a guess. I just don't have any faith in that forecast as of yet. The warm pool situation is more for Feb. If you can have it bump east enough away from it's climo position that's how you can attain a cold Feb. Which has a fair enough chance of occurring as per posts in the main enso thread. La nina is bad in Feb because the climo position of that feature is ~120E. So convective forcing is concentrated mostly in that spot. So you wind up with the Aleutian ridge/ SE ridge regime that is widely known. If you start to shift it away from that and inch it more and more towards the dateline instead, you start working Pacific ridging into more and more of a favorable location. Instead of the climo la nina location. That's one way to get a cold Feb out of a la nina. Which seems like could be happening with a big WWB in progress out there now and perhaps again later in the month, but will it all be enough. It's already made the move away from 120E since October. It doesn't need to be centered on the dateline, just a little bit more east past 150E could work. It's really not all that far off...

Good post

0.4” this morning. Looks wintry. 15” for the year now

29 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

For that reason the 159hr cutter will become the typical lame SWFE some sleet to rain to prolong your suffering. 

Hope it's better soon. I just dealt with it and many of my friends and coworkers are sick too. Bad flu season.

16 minutes ago, mattinpa said:

Hope you feel better soon. I just got my flu shot which I hope helps. A little warmup won’t hurt anyone. 

Thanks. I actually got the shot. So I assume it would have been worse if I hadn’t. 

This flu sucks. Would like a warm up so I can go outside and be able to breathe without it hurting 

Dusting of snow today. It’s snowed 7-8 times already this year

2 hours ago, Krs4Lfe said:

Most of our thaws put us in the 50s. The January thaws in 2020 and 2023 were insane. 65-70 for most of us. Was a telltale sign that winter was finished. 2024 was a bit more muted, and January 2021 and January 2022 were low 50s for the thaw, nothing too crazy, and we went back to wintry conditions after that. I'm certain we'll crack 50 next week, but anything above mid to upper 50s and that's usually a bad sign. 

Your posts are usually bad. But this is not even accurate, at all. We had a big torch after the 96 blizzard and had a record setting winter. 
 

we all get that you want to piss in everyone’s corn flakes, but at least be accurate. Right now you just look foolish to every poster. Either stop making things up or move these posts to banter. 

Down to 14 now. Coldest of the winter 

9 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

If its not going to snow no sense in freezing. I'll gladly take upper 40s. My pseg bill was over $500 this month

I’ll even take upper 30s with no wind. The wind is what makes this month terrible 

16 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

I hope you feel better.

Thanks Don. Appreciate it. Getting sick is the price we pay for socializing during the holidays. It’s close to inevitable 

3 hours ago, Dark Star said:

Sounds like you are ready to retire to Florida?

Never. I got sick because I partied a lot the last 2 weeks. I absolutely hate Florida and could never live there 

Miserable day. I came down with that cold that’s going around to start the year off the right way. 
 

A thaw would be nice. A few days near 55 with no wind please 

Impressive squall out here. White out conditions. 

20 minutes ago, snywx said:

Roads are a mess up here

Aren’t they always?

Just a dusting of snow in western Suffolk. Congrats out east, again 

Not the best night for a light snowfall. Hopefully people drive safely 

1 minute ago, The 4 Seasons said:

I dunno, did you see the NYC thread on December 26th? I've never such a dumpster fire before like that 

That's true, there are definitely meltdowns as well. Would be nice to have a large east coast storm where everyone can get a win. Feels like its been a while. A real Philly to Bos special