psv88

Not the best night for a light snowfall. Hopefully people drive safely 

1 minute ago, The 4 Seasons said:

I dunno, did you see the NYC thread on December 26th? I've never such a dumpster fire before like that 

That's true, there are definitely meltdowns as well. Would be nice to have a large east coast storm where everyone can get a win. Feels like its been a while. A real Philly to Bos special

A psychologist would have a field day reading this thread. It's amusing from an outsiders perspective. 

You have those are depressed, those who have anxiety, those with OCD, those with narcissistic disorder and some with bipolar. Then there are those who are relatively normal and rational. 

Im sure other forums are similar in some respects, but this group really takes the cake. Thank you for the entertainment!

BTW, its been a great December on Long Island, which shares more characteristics with SNE than the Mid Atlantic. Cheers to a good January.

7 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

of course it will take a break but smaller breaks through January before the next arctic front comes through - also those great lakes cutters especially on the GFS are hard to believe with that massive blocking stretched across Greenland and westward - GFS has done this before trying to force the LP's to far into the block

Be careful dismissing those cutters. Many hobbyists have made the mistake of discounting cutters due to a block...yet we have seen many cutters slice right into those blocks like a warm knife through butter.

2 hours ago, uofmiami said:

I was there for that ball drop, they did an amazing job clearing the snow out.  It was cold as hell and something I’ll never do again.  Flew back from FL leaving family behind to be with my then gf, had to fly out a day ahead due to the storm but made it back to NY ahead of it.

I hope you married her!

The amount of dumb shit i did for gfs I didnt marry was insane. If i had only known better haha. What a waste!

I was in Europe for that storm with my family, I was 16. I remember flying in over the island and seeing how amounts increased once we got over western Suffolk. Neighbors told me how fast the snow fell. 

11 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

City was cold this evening with the wind. Heading back now and the wind through the streets was biting.  Only hit 48 with some snow spots left. 

That means you didn’t spend enough time in the stores lol, we hit every store on 5th and worked up a sweat. It really wasn’t windy until we got off the train back on the island. 

49 for the high ate up most of my snow, still some patches around though. 
 

beautiful warm day in the city to see the sites with the family. That stretch from Bryant park to 52nd street is money 

2 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

down time ? I am currently under a Winter Weather Advisory

 Everyone is. It’ll be ok 

Yea that WWA is needed. Maybe a bit late idk. 

Just now, NorthShoreWx said:

31.8⁰ DP 25 in Smithtown.  I'm well versed in the whole wind off the water/ raining when it gets here thing, but I'm wondering now if we shouldn't be looking out for a little freezing rain near the coast too.

Yup. Most of the island is below freezing. Maybe a special weather statement at the outset 

31 now and rain not too far away. Let’s hope we warm up a bit soon

20 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

thats cool - which program you use to create that ? Also all those period marks I put in my most represents all the banter posts already in the new January 2026 thread - nonsense posts asking where forum member Allsnow is and then discussions back and forth about it and a couple other nonsense posts

Nonsense posts? People are worried about his well being. Tis the season I guess

46 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

Just touched freezing and at 33, under today on forecasts.

 

33 here as well. No wind. Great day for a walk with the dogs around the neighborhood in the winter landscape. 

20 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Melted the snow that was caught in the 4" gage down to .59".  That works out to 9:1 on our 5.3" snowfall.  Not surprising as I noticed a lot of small crappy flakes for most of the storm.

Second snowfall in a row with light winds where the catch in the gage was quite accurate.

Just about all of the models had us around or over .50 LE, including the NAM.  A couple runs of the GFS were .8 or .9, but otherwise the qpf modeling for LI was pretty consistent and quite accurate.  The snow map algorithms were not as consistent or accurate.

Yea this was a heavy dense snow. 

3 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Undoubtedly they found a way, but it's hit and miss.  These are from when the Sound partially froze over in 2015 (can't believe it's been almost 11 years).  A bit chunky, but Mrs and I found a spot to stand.

 

Nice photo. I remember crossing the throgs neck bridge and seeing the sound frozen completely across from queens to the Bronx. Probably have some photos somewhere 

19 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

Yeah he had great insights on 33andrain.com when the forum was online. I haven't been there since they switched to discord Spring 2023. Do they still exist?

Yes but not for Debbie Downers

Oh please god no with the buckle up comments. I fucking hate social media types. They’ve ruined weather 

9 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

I've heard of that at other times too, but practically speaking that wasn't an easy walk.  With the tides still moving every cycle, there would have been pressure ridges and cracks; not smooth ice.

The show said they moved cannons and other supplies across the river on the ice. 
 

New York harbor and the Long Island sound also froze over. How far east idk. But apparently the temp never went above 0 for like 2 months in Morristown 

4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Next 5-7 days I don't see anything but something could show up after 1/4 or 1/5.  Still think 1/10 or 1/12 and after is where the major risk begins 

Agreed on the time frame. 

39 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

Pattern still looks to very northern stream dominant for the foreseeable future. Lots of low pressure north of Great Lakes and east Canada. Could yield a few light snow events for New England and interior Northeast, but still no signs of any amplified solutions because the northern stream is very dominant. Definitely a cold start to January, but I would put pause on a larger snow event until we can get the western ridge to spike a bit more. If we can get that +PNA, we might be in good shape. Until then, maybe some snow shower events through first week of January, likely nothing more than that 

Disagree strongly. You can get an amplified storm with only the northern stream. The PNA gives you the track you need for a coastal and the NAO both prevents a cutter and slows down the flow to allow storms to amplify. 
 

what we have been missing lately is both the storm track and a blocky flow which allows storms to amplify. This pattern provides that, northern stream or not. 
 

Sure we may not get an east coast QPF bomb without some help from the STJ, but we can absolutely see a prolonged period of moderate to higher end events with this pattern. 
 

everyone on her know I have no bias when it comes to weather, I’m calling it how I see it. 

15 this morning 

33 minutes ago, eduggs said:

What are you basing this on? Can you share your data? My assessment does not match yours at all.

I thought the NAM did great. The average of its last few runs before go time was more accurate than any other model IMO. It picked up on the track of the 700mb low and delaying its weakening. It correctly depicted the resulting dryslot across the southern tier of NY. It brought sleet past the NJ-NY border (correct). It was the first model to target and then consistently target the NJ-NY border as the dividing line between minor and significant snow, particularly with the initial overrunning. It (along with the RDPS) correctly highlighted the low-level lingering snowfall into Saturday that the globals undermodeled. Just overlaying its QPF forecast and clown maps with the reported snowfall matches up much better than everything else.

The GFS, GEFS, CMC, RDPS, GEPS, HRRR, UK, ICON, and ICON-EPS were all consistently too far southwest with the heaviest precipitation, total snow, and all-snow zone. Even the ECM had too much snow in most of NJ until the very end. It also failed to show the gradient across Long Island.

Hopefully you are relying on more than a single NAM run and a wonky bufkit output for one station.

Let it go. 

Just now, vortex95 said:

I didn't catch that.  When did that occur?  Later in the storm as well like SE MA?
Long Island certainty has done well this month!  That S Coast/Cape Cod storm earlier this month dumped up to 9", and now up to 8" w/ this past storm.

 

Occurred from around 9 pm to 3 am. South shore cleaned up from that. Yes we’ve have an outstanding month down here 

3 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Don was ripping the NAM before and during yesterday's event. It should be obvious to anyone that the NAM (from ~60 hours out) performed better than the NWS and most other guidance for our area. Don was wrong. If he wants to do a verification of the NAM, he should do it with a more precise parameter than reported snow accumulation. At the very least he should use more than 4 stations. I think the NAM is getting hosed in Don's "verification." A few of the entries look wrong. There's also the issue of sleet: EWR and possibly Central Park experienced some sleet yesterday evening. If this was the dominant ptype during any time point, pivotal will record it as 0 snowfall for that period. But since sleet accumulates, using the pivotal algorithm will under-predict accumulated snowfall.

I think the entire purpose of the verification when it was originally proposed was to bash the NAM, assuming it would fail. But it did not. The writing was on the wall early yesterday (HRRR, RAP, ECM, radar). Some noticed. Others doubled down .

You are going to die on this hill aren’t you? Lol. Everyone has their thing I guess. 95% of us enjoy the snow. The other 5% are never happy and find ways to complain. You seem to be in the 5%.