psv88

46 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

40.1 & 40.2 at my stations, haha. 

Looks like they are a degree too low…

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Bridgeport, Islip, Central Park, JFK Airport, LaGuardia Airport, and White Plains all had highs of 41F (5.0C) today. If that holds, it would be the first time since November 21, 1998 that all six locations had identical high temperatures. 

I also recorded a high of 41. Great day to calibrate those weather stations. 

2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

If the forecast holds the warm up would have lasted 9 days. The 6th through the 14th. 

Not at all. 

The warm up started on 1/4. 

From my point and click. 

1/15 - 43

1/16-34

1/17 - 40

1/18 - 36

Highs 36-43 are within the normal range for mid-January. So if we cool down on 1/19 as currently forecasted, the warm up was 1/4 to 1/18

2 minutes ago, eduggs said:

If he says something incorrect and continues to insist that he is correct, I will challenge it right here. Maybe I'm wrong. Maybe he's wrong. Either way, anybody reading can learn. If I had no respect for him, I would ignore it. People need to know what's true and what's not. 

Again, you are making yourself look foolish. Nobody cares at all. Take it off line. 

The way you challenge comes across as disrespectful. I respect Don immensely, as does everyone else on here. 

Again, take it to DM and move forward. Nobody, and i mean nobody, cares about the equations he uses in his posts. You just come across as a pompous prick. 

Your aggressive and disrespectful posts will drive one of our best posters away from the board. 

22 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Some of us know what a sensitivity analysis is. And for those who do not, your link is helpful. But what you present is not a sensitivity analysis. Or maybe you are withholding most of it, which should include:
- which inputs you used in your analysis
- how they were perturbed
- how the output (mean temp) varied with those perturbations
- ranking of influential variables

The goal of a sensitivity analysis in to determine which variables have the biggest impact on some output... not just what is the most likely output. And if the variables, assumptions, and their tested ranges aren't included, the output is kind of meaningless.
 

Take this to DMs. If you want this information from Don, I am sure he will give it to you. 

Further, show the man some respect. He contributes alot to this board and for many years. Your attitude towards him is not called for. 

Seriously, nobody cares about your picking apart his statistical analysis. You may think it makes you look smart, but it makes you seem like an asshole. This is not a college course, its a weather board. Give it a rest. 

2 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

Most winters have a January thaw. This mild pattern will be 10 to 15 days. 

Colder than average starting the 18th. 

15 day warm up is not a thaw. A thaw is like 3-5 days. 15 days is half the month!

Snow squall and 34, little coating down 

6 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

At this range losing it on a model run then getting it back is pretty normal. Chill. 

This one was never a real threat. A GFS mirage. Let it go…

46 now and bright sunshine. Feels great!

11 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Its not going to be a La Nina come February.

Sorry pal. We had a great December. We’ll probably sneak in a nice event late January and then face a more hostile pattern the rest of winter.

i think the park ends with around 24” of snow. I don’t see it going much more than that 

This thaw has changed the feeling of winter. Feels like it’s going to be seen as a front loaded winter where most of the cold was in December. January seems to be pretty warm until the last week. La Nina’s suck in February so we may just scrape ourselves to an average season. More than that I don’t see

0.67 from the rainstorm. Low of 40 last night. Toasty for mid January 

44 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Yeah….torch.  Not.  

Multiple days in the 50s area wide in mid January is a torch in my book. 

39 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

Currently:

Light rain. 34.5°

Congrats on your colder rain!

I don’t think this is our storm. Too early for us. 

52 now. Summah

51 off a low of 27. Felt nice!

49 and sunny. Wind is back though 

Summer is here. Sunny and 46

30 minutes ago, Cyg said:

Walking in New Providence right now, seems like a light mist is falling. 

Stay safe!

12 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

I was thinking that for later in January, even if the subtropical jet became a little more active, the tendency would be for the dominant northern stream to result in either phase up too soon with a storm hooking too far to the left or the streams remaining separate too long and a storm being overly suppressed initially. 

WX/PT

That’s the risk every year. Its why it’s rare to have a big snowstorm in NYC

Went down to Huntington harbor today and it was mainly ice free. A few spots close to the shoreline had ice, but last year had more ice at its coldest. 
 

we’ve had many nights in the 20s but none below 10 and only a few in teens. We’ll need a stronger push of arctic air to really freeze the harbor 

9 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

I never said it was. I was disputing that very fact...

He just wants to argue with someone about anything 

34 for the high. Plenty of snow in the shaded and not south facing areas 

It snows everyday now. It’s been quite a start to winter. Cold and 15” of snow by 1/4. With like 8-9 snowfalls. If you like winter weather, you have nothing to complain about