NJwx85

3 minutes ago, mikem81 said:

The NAM is the weirdest model out there. I dont know how a LP can get 10mb stronger and be 30-40 miles north of its 12Z location and show less precip at the surface

 

All of the confluence and dry air pressing down from the North. It's actually helping to squeeze out more precip South of where that sets up. There will be a very sharp cutoff somewhere, my guess right now is around 195 in NJ.

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Yea confluence is eating the northern fridge 

 

I think this one is about done, especially for anyone North of Rt 80. Areas near I-78 and points South look good. Maybe Southern Brooklyn, SI, and parts of Queens will do decently.

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Precip came northward on the nam 

It cut totals North of I-78.

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Winter Weather Advisory for NYC

2-3 inches

That seems generous given the modeling.

Looks like this is the peak panel for Northern areas.

3 minutes ago, TJW014 said:

Low farther north (35 mi) and stronger. Looks wetter too.

It has very little North of  I-78 in NJ.

4 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

He lives south so great news for him

Yes I'm aware of where Toms River, NJ is.

Models might not be done trending South.

8 minutes ago, TJW014 said:

I'd be ecstatic with 18z HRRR. Still have a ways to go but looks like we're starting to zero in on somewhere between US-40 and Route 33. Going to be a Nowcast event.

Big trend South from the 12z run.

The GFS has trended more amplified over the past four runs while the NAM has trended flatter and is actually much flatter at 12z Friday as compared to the 12z GFS. Cannot remember the last time the NAM was flatter than the GFS 24 hours before a storm. Probably a red flag that the GFS is too wet.

25 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

The vort keeps ticking north 

If you follow the last four runs of the NAM it shows the snow trending North and East with each consecutive run. That's pretty typical of inverted troughs. You never want to be in the bullseye more than 24 hours out.

1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The RAP/SREF are showing their usual NW bias at this range...its why I have said if you can pick a spot to be right now I'd go with a Long Branch-Cranbury-Marlboro-South Brunswick line....I think the IVT may set up somewhere between about EWR and TTN in the end based off just past tendency of where these go from 48-60 hours out

Not sure I agree with this. Inverted troughs usually end up trending further Northeast as the event comes closer. My guess is Eastern Long Island and Southeast New England for the win.

1.5” here plus a quarter inch of ice. Really lousy storm and difficult to shovel.

28 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

The palisades had more than enough snow to plow it earlier. As did 303, 59, parts of the thruway, and 202. 

When I went through at 8am the PIP was in better shape than I-87.

Radar is really filling in now. Kudos to @Dark Star who called this at 7am.

https://x.com/nycstormchaser/status/1747224678505046176?s=46&t=wnL9UkNay47lChNZhqU2Pw

8 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

So close to a bigger thump .

Rgem Increased precip amounts.

Have to get the blue up here 

Inland areas could get 4"+ if that QPF verified thanks to higher than normal ratios.

3 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Yup. Hopefully more warmth for February. I’m about done with this awful winter if the 20th storm misses 

This feels like one of those February’s where we crack 70 degrees and it snows a week later.

We’re a month away from pitchers and catchers. Pattern breaks down after the 20th storm. Good riddens.

Best chances for big storms are on the leading edge of cold, like early next week and then as it departs next weekend. After that get out the shorts and BBQ’s.

You want the NAM to be amped up beyond 36 hours. If it showed snow at the immediate coast right now this threat would be 100% dead instead of 75% dead.

To be fair, the GFS does try and do some whacky elongated last minute phase.

If we do end up missing out on this one it doesn't mean there won't be another one following close behind it. I recall that a few days before the Boxing Day blizzard we narrowly missed getting slammed by a miller A. Sometimes these help to reinforce the pattern. 

It will be cold for part of next week here but nothing like the Plains.

The 18z NAM was pretty flat at 84 hours. It's impossible to know what would have happened since I'm pretty sure the DGEX doesn't exist anymore. Anyway, typically in these situations you want to see the long range NAM super amped up because of its known bias for being over amplified with respect to coastal storms.

3 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

and the 12Z EURO with fresh Radiosonde Data Input made a large move towards the GFS - your point being ?

I don't know how you could call that a large move towards the GFS. It was a move towards the old GFS but still just a glancing blow. Lets see what 00z has to say.

1 minute ago, SBUWX23 said:

The euro has more snow than the GFS now. Models are nodding at nothing other than uncertainty 

The Euro has been consistently slower with the trough axis dropping down from the upper Plains. Until this timing issue is fully resolved there will be some uncertainty. The hope is that it is still poorly sampled as @Typhoon Tip alluded too earlier.