NJwx85

4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The HRRR sort of is too.  The one thing most models agree on is the TSTMs 21-23Z over NRN-CNTRL NJ.  The Euro idea though of steady rain by 2330-00Z from NYC and east is probably more likely than the HRRR/NAM holding that area back til 02-03Z

The storm threat drops East of the Hudson however I like today's threat for Northern/Central NJ extending into the LHV, especially if we can get some clearing. 

On 2/25/2025 at 10:02 AM, Allsnow said:

Congratulations 

3? I have two and I’m tapping out lol

 

and yes, the warm weather makes it so much easier 

Thanks everyone. Yup, 3rd one wasn’t planned but ….. happens.

2 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Congratulations, NJwx85.

Thanks Don.

I couldn't be happier that this god forsaken Winter is coming to an early and abrupt end. My wife and I are expecting our third in early April and we're hoping for nice weather so that we can take him outside for walks.

Happy Everyone gets screwed day. 59 pages + for a dusting/flurries. 

20 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Agree. Once you get to 3/15 that’s pretty much all she wrote, even for southern New England, minus some freak, high anomalous event. At that point you have sun angle, climo and length of day all working very strongly against you 

We had a recent March, might have been 2017 or 2018 with 4 or 5 big storms in March. We got into a pattern where we got coastals every week, but that was definitely an anomaly. One of my all time favorite storms, March 2010 was a 5" rain maker, occurring a few weeks after the snowicane. 

12 minutes ago, Feen said:

it's not over Manda, you got another good month of winter around these neck of the woods! I'm not giving up

Friday marks the end of prime snow season for the NY metro which runs from roughly December 20th to the Friday after President's Day. Of course it can and probably will snow in March and April but you start to run into significant problems. In some ways sun angle is already an issue. It snowed at my house for 8 hours on Saturday and we ended up with about an inch. And most of that accumulated after 5PM when the sun went down. Other than my cars, I didn't even have to clean it up. My biggest snowfall of the season this year was 5" and it was back in December.

1 hour ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

My biggest storm ever here 35 inches, Danbury CT 30 miles due east of me I think ended up with about 10 inches becuase of all the rain they started with.

That was the wildest storm ever and led to a period of major flooding in March because of the runoff in NNJ.

1 hour ago, Yanksfan said:

 Nothing beats the March 2001 calamity, but I have to admit this one is going to sting for a while.

Who are you and why are you using my name?

1 minute ago, Krs4Lfe said:

Yeah JB gets it disastrously wrong. Good metrologies but I feel like something has changed with him over the past 5 years 

He’s all about clicks these days.

1 minute ago, NEG NAO said:

at 84 hours they all look good wait and see what happens with the LP once it passes Hatteras....

It’s a lot more amped than the GFS which is typical at this range. It closes off the ULL in a good spot. But it’s probably wrong.

Boxing Day was a different time. Over 14 years ago. The models were far less skilled then. This is common for wound up coastals. Give it till Monday night.

8 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Yeah the 18Z ICON was like a Nemo redux, saved by a late capture but realistically that is a worse trend from the prior run

Shame….shame….shame

Snowing lightly finally here in Rockland.

Nothing here in Rockland County. Looks like the cutoff line right now is near Yonkers.

2 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

why do people only love the nam when it gives the most snow

I don’t favor the NAM, exactly the opposite. The HRRR is completely out of range.

It’s snowing now in DC at the White House.

The 18z NAM 12k is weaker with the precip than 12z. Double digit snows in VA cut back to 6-8”. Philly went from 6 to 4.

3k NAM ticked North from 12z. Snow into Orange County vs Bergen County at 03z.

Why are people looking at the HRRR at this range? It’s useful once it actually starts snowing to pick out banding features. I wouldn’t worry about it unless the NAM caves this next run.

The dividing line is 195.

Can’t wait for the, “sun angle” conversations in about 3 weeks. It’s coming folks. Better cash in this week.

The RGEM isn’t a great model. Like the NAM it tends to make wild jumps inside of 48hrs. They are useful but only if you know how to use them. 

1 hour ago, NEG NAO said:

Eastern Bergen ,Eastern Essex and eastern Union should also be under warnings especially since they mention some areas could get 6 inches - they are cutting it to close IMO

Warning level is 7” and it’s based on probability which for those areas is low.

Winter storm warning here 5-7”