NJwx85

2 minutes ago, weathermedic said:

The good thing about high winds in the winter months is that most of the trees do not have leaves on them so there isn't as much resistance.

Yes but the ground will be saturated.

Especially on LI, there will be about a 6 hour period of sustained low end TS force winds with potential for much higher gusts. 06z GFS 925mb winds are in excess of 80kts on the East end late tonight.

Shameful to see some here downplaying the threat and contradicting the NWS. The warnings are warranted. The flow at the surface will be off the ocean which will help funnel the stronger winds into the region. Strong convection will help to mix down stronger winds. Lack of inversion is key here. 3k NAM has 125kts at 850mb along the NJ coast at 06z.

3 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Much like last time BUFKIT algorithms do not want to mix winds down really and only indicate JFK maybe gusting 40-42...I would think just before FROPA they could have a stronger gust than that 

Why is that? I don’t see an inversion on the soundings.

Biggest difference with this system over the one in December is the wind threat well inland. 55-60 might be marginally notable on LI but it’s pretty serious in NJ, E PA and Southern portions of NY State where there are heavily wooded areas, exposed power lines and saturated grounds. Many areas in NNJ are less than 2 weeks removed from a major flood. Water tables are high and reservoirs are already at capacity. Bad combo to add that with pending rapid snow melt. Reminds me of March 2010 system.

19 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Boston 1.9 haha

Still got way more than NYC.

Today amounted to white rain. Not sure it even stuck to the existing snow pack. Sun came out around 2pm. Can’t wait for my tropical storm Tuesday night.

Coming down harder at this point then it did last night but the roads are already clear and treated so it’s only sticking to non paved surfaces.

New WWA here till 5pm for up to 2 additional inches.

2 minutes ago, Bxstormwatcher360 said:

Depending on the banding,nyc might see the heaviest snow since early in the event. Also a ivt is near us in the metro,so it might be get interesting soon.

Both the 12z HRRR and 3k NAM have a widespread 1-3” today.

Moderate snow has started here in the last 10 minutes.

Mostly sleet here at the moment. 3.5” OTG.

34 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

In fact they do

Otherwise, models remain in agreement that low pressure passes
to our south tonight and just NW of the 40N/70W benchmark Sunday
morning. Bulk of the precip will occur through tonight, but PVA
aloft interacting with a surface trough on the backside of the
storm brings additional, but lighter precip during the day
Sunday.

Missed it thanks 

3 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

Upton disco

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The challenge of this forecast will be for areas just inland of
the coast the next several hours, particularly interior NE NJ
and the CT coast. A strengthening east flow will gradually warm
the boundary layer, however, with liquid equivalent rates of .1
to .2"/hr moving up from the south, those areas could see brief
snowfall rates of 1 to 2"/hr before mixing with or going over
to rain. Inland areas will also see an increase in intensity of
the snow the next couple of hours, from SW to NE. Even a slight
change in distance north and west will make a difference. For
example, KEWR has gone over to plain rain at 37F/34F, while KNYC
is right around the freezing mark. Latest dual pol CC from KDIX
and KOKX shows lower CC values (marking mixed pcpn going over to
rain) near KEWR and along the south shore of LI. This area should
advance north with a changeover to all rain across LI and the NYC
metro the next 1 to 2 hours. However, model soundings for
locations just north and west of NYC, such as KTEB are pointing to
a prolonged period of heavy wet snow before the mid levels dry
out and an elevated warm layer moves in aloft. At that time,
precipitation would transition over to a drizzle or light rain,
but the bulk of the heavy precipitation would have fallen as snow.
Also, seeing very similar soundings along the CT coast. However,
the strengthening easterly flow off the LI Sound is a significant
warming factor for the boundary layer. If the wind could stay a
bit more north of east the potential is there for higher
accumulations. This will have to be watched carefully over the
next couple of hours, but for the time will stay the course with
the hazards and snowfall amounts.

No mention of snow tomorrow.

5 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

fu dry air, still high and dry here in rockland.

The dry air is your friend. It’s representitive of where the cold air is. You will be better off when the real stuff arrives later.

8 minutes ago, wdrag said:

I always worry about sleet... HRRR is seeming to lock sleet to just up to Stanhope NJ-Scranton PA at midnight... if so,  you're good for 6-9" by midnight.  EC very very steady cyclically on qpf  near .7 today and .1 or .2 tomorrow morning.  Should be some freezing rain-sleet-freezing drizzle in SC 1A-7A Sunday then bands of mainly light snow for 6 to 10 hours and another inch or so on the snow cover but pavement probably mostly wet tomorrow.  I hope you get a foot. I'd visit but already take too much time away from family with this computer stuff.  You're about 20-30 min from where I live.  Go to Granny's for Breakfast on SR23 in Hamburg.  Very good. 

We eat there everytime we golf up that way. Usually either Black Bear or one of the Crystal Springs courses.

Snow has begun at my parents house in NE Morris County.

1 minute ago, Greg g said:

33 here in garnerville 

I think the freezing line is West of us, closer to NW Rockland. Good news is sun angle won’t be an issue lol.

5 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Not surprisingly it looks like the freezing line right now is the I287 corridor.

 

Temps in the city right now ranging from 38 at the rockaways to 34 north Bronx.

I’m at 34 degrees just North and East of the 87/PIP interchange.

6 minutes ago, snywx said:

If I had to draw a line on where the 6" line will be its prob from Mahwah to Suffern to Stony point across the river to Yorktown. 

I think it’s more Ringwood to Sloatsburg to Pomona to West Haverstraw to Bear Mountain.

21 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

Always amazed me how well the models pick up the hudson river further north of the city and the maps responded accordingly. This could be one of those Nyack right on the river gets an inch or two and on the other side of the palisades cliffs gets 4” a mile away.

I think 4-6” is a good call near the Palisades Parkway in Rockland. The cutoff should be close to the mall. Big uptick in elevation right after the mall going NB on 87.

11 minutes ago, Rjay said:

12z gfs 12/24

I was close lol

16 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Good luck 

The whole if it’s not snow nobody cares is lame. You might not care, and no need to clog up this thread with BS then.

3 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Not getting snow so not worried 

 

Keep your sump pump plugged in and everything will be fine 

Not for people that live in low lying or flood prone areas. And power outages will be an issue with saturated ground and strong wind gusts.

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Slightly south and east but similar. 

NYC is 34 degrees on both the 12z and 18z runs at 06z Sunday.